News
Archives, January 2-5, 2008
Saturday,
January 5th, 2008
- Job
growth skids to near halt
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - "U.S. jobs
growth skidded to a near-halt in
December and the unemployment rate hit a two-year high, according to a
government report on Friday that raised recession fears and chances of
more interest-rate cuts.
The Labor Department said
only 18,000 new non-farm jobs were added
last month, the weakest performance since August 2003, while the
jobless rate jumped to 5 percent from 4.7 percent in November -- the
largest monthly rise since October 2001 in the wake of the September 11
terror attacks.
"The unemployment rate
moved up in a shocking way and that's sort of
political dynamite that may make the Fed more prone to easing than
otherwise," said Pierre Ellis, senior economist at Decision Economics
in New York.
Ellis said the U.S. central bank was more likely now to cut rates by
a half percentage point than a quarter to add stimulus to a clearly
flagging economy when it meets at month's end..."
More:
Goldman,
JP Morgan see Fed cutting 50 bps in Jan
Fear
of recession to cloud U.S. stocks
Brutal
selloff on Wall Street
Mortgage
securities sales under scrutiny
Citibank
limits ATM cash in city
Spin
and denial survive the global credit crunch
Unemployment
Up, Stoking Recession Fears
Deadbeat
America: Late Payments Soar
Americans
Sold Out to Foreign Firms at Record Rate
The
Bottom Line: If you cannot see the dire implications from
all of this playing out, then your eyes have not yet opened fully.
-
Forget oil,
the new global crisis is food
New York
(financialpost.com)
-- "A new crisis is emerging, a global food catastrophe that will reach
further and be more crippling than anything the world has ever seen.
The credit crunch and the reverberations of soaring oil prices around
the world will pale in comparison to what is about to transpire, Donald
Coxe, global portfolio strategist at BMO Financial Group said at the
Empire Club's 14th annual investment outlook in Toronto on Thursday.
"It's not a matter of if,
but when," he warned investors. "It's going to hit this year hard."
Mr.
Coxe said the sharp rise in raw food prices in the past year will
intensify in the next few years amid increased demand for meat and
dairy products from the growing middle classes of countries such as
China and India as well as heavy demand from the biofuels industry.
"The
greatest challenge to the world is not US$100 oil; it's getting enough
food so that the new middle class can eat the way our middle class
does, and that means we've got to expand food output dramatically," he
said.
The impact of tighter
food supply is already evident in raw food prices, which have risen 22%
in the past year.
Mr.
Coxe said in an interview that this surge would begin to show in the
prices of consumer foods in the next six months. Consumers already paid
6.5% more for food in the past year.
Wheat prices alone have
risen 92% in the past year, and yesterday closed at US$9.45 a bushel on
the Chicago Board of Trade.
At
the centre of the imminent food catastrophe is corn - the main staple
of the ethanol industry. The price of corn has risen about 44% over the
past 15 months, closing at US$4.66 a bushel on the CBOT yesterday - its
best finish since June 1996..."
More:
Japan
to Increase Emergency Stockpiles of Grains, Yomiuri Says
Oil Price
Touches $100 a Barrel; Signal of Pending Oil Shortages Ignored,
According to TheOilDrum.com
The
Bottom Line: The timing could not be worse.
Friday,
January 4th, 2008
- Caution:
Job losses ahead
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- "The labor
market is expected to end 2007
with a whimper, but even that modest forecast could be seen as "the
good old days," since monthly job losses may become common in the year
ahead, according to economists.
The December employment
report
due at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday should see a net gain of 70,000 jobs in the
month, according to economists surveyed by Briefing.com, down from the
94,000 gain reported in November.
That gain is roughly half
of
what is seen as necessary to keep pace with the growth in the nation's
labor force, and economists are expecting the unemployment rate to edge
up to 4.8 percent, a 22-month high for that key measure.
Those
forecasts were made before Thursday's ADP National Employment Report
for December showed only a 40,000 job gain in the private sector in the
month, sharply off of the 173,000 gain it calculated for November. The
report uses payroll data from hundreds of businesses, both large and
small.
The Monster Employment
Index, which tracks online job
search listings, also fell 14 points in December, with only about half
of that decline attributed to seasonal factor, according to the firm.
With
economists looking for economic growth to stall in the months ahead,
many are forecasting that employers will get very cautious with their
hiring plans going forward. While much of the job weakness in 2007 was
concentrated in residential construction, manufacturing and finance,
many believe that weakness will spread this year.
"At the margins,
businesses
are being more cautious about spending," said economist David Kelly,
the chief market strategist for JPMorgan Funds. "Consumers are addicts
and they'll keep spending. But if businesses expect recession and put
in hiring freezes, that'll have an impact."
Kelly believes there
are quarters ahead that will notch a net loss of jobs, even if the
overall economy continues to grow. And many economists say they're
nervous about whether the economy will be able to keep growing this
year..."
More:
Stocks
struggle ahead of jobs
Dollar
under [even more] pressure ahead of U.S. jobs data
How
Safe Bank Tried Subprime And Got Singed
Why
the Ratings Agencies Flunked
It's
Not Rocket Science
When
Boom Turns to Bust
Saxo Bank's
'outrageous predictions' grim
The
Bottom Line: Everyone is starting to wake up now. I
guess it is better late than never.
-
Has global
warming stopped?
New York
(newstatesman.com)
-- "Global warming stopped? Surely not. What heresy is this? Haven’t we
been told that the science of global warming is settled beyond doubt
and that all that’s left to the so-called sceptics is the odd errant
glacier that refuses to melt?
Aren’t we told that if we
don’t act now rising temperatures will
render most of the surface of the Earth uninhabitable within our
lifetimes? But as we digest these apocalyptic comments, read the recent
IPCC’s Synthesis report that says climate change could become
irreversible. Witness the drama at Bali as news emerges that something
is not quite right in the global warming camp.
With only few days
remaining in 2007, the indications are the global
temperature for this year is the same as that for 2006 – there has been
no warming over the 12 months.
But is this just a blip
in the ever upward trend you may ask? No.
The fact is that the
global temperature of 2007 is statistically the
same as 2006 as well as every year since 2001. Global warming has,
temporarily or permanently, ceased. Temperatures across the world are
not increasing as they should according to the fundamental theory
behind global warming – the greenhouse effect. Something else is
happening and it is vital that we find out what or else we may spend
hundreds of billions of pounds needlessly.
In principle the
greenhouse effect is simple. Gases like carbon
dioxide present in the atmosphere absorb outgoing infrared radiation
from the earth’s surface causing some heat to be retained.
Consequently an increase
in the atmospheric concentration of
greenhouse gases from human activities such as burning fossil fuels
leads to an enhanced greenhouse effect. Thus the world warms, the
climate changes and we are in trouble.
The evidence for this
hypothesis is the well established physics of
the greenhouse effect itself and the correlation of increasing global
carbon dioxide concentration with rising global temperature. Carbon
dioxide is clearly increasing in the Earth’s atmosphere. It’s a
straight line upward. It is currently about 390 parts per million.
Pre-industrial levels were about 285 ppm. Since 1960 when accurate
annual measurements became more reliable it has increased steadily from
about 315 ppm. If the greenhouse effect is working as we think then the
Earth’s temperature will rise as the carbon dioxide levels increase..."
The
Bottom Line:
The real question is: "Did it even start to begin with? Or is
this
just part of a normal yet unpredictable cycle of warm and cold?
Thursday,
January 3rd, 2008
- U.S.
recession fears prompt flight to safety
HONG KONG (Reuters) - "Asian stocks
slumped on Thursday after weak
U.S. manufacturing data and record oil prices renewed fears that the
world's top economy was heading into recession, sending investors
towards the safety of gold.
U.S. crude oil futures
eased in Asia after briefly touching a record
$100 a barrel on Wednesday, while gold steadied below an all-time high
of $861 an ounce hit in the previous session.
Asian companies face the
prospect of higher energy costs just as
data on Wednesday showed a key U.S. manufacturing index shrank in
December for the first time in nearly a year, darkening the outlook for
Asia's top export market.
"People are showing
concern about the overall global growth outlook.
Oil is an underlying cost that a lot of companies face," said White
Funds Management portfolio manager Angus Gluskie.
"It also represents an
increase in inflation that central banks around the world will have to
deal with."
Some analysts are even voicing the fears of U.S. stagflation as
minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting shows it grappling with
a credit crunch that may require more interest rate cuts to prevent
worsening an economic slowdown..."
More:
Why the
era of cheap food is over
Social
Implications of a Significant Economic Downturn
Not
Just About Dollars and Cents
Fed
to investors: More cuts coming
Stocks
tank on recession fears
Fed
minutes: credit woes may force more rate cuts
The
Bottom Line: Projection for 2008? "Outlook not so
good".
-
Oil
Futures Hit $100 a Barrel in Intraday Trading
New York
(foxbusiness.com)
-- "The price of oil hit $100 a barrel for the first time ever in
intraday trading Wednesday, prompted by a mix of long-term fears that
supply will not meet demand and more immediate concerns of turmoil in
oil producing nations.
Speculation by oil
traders is also believed to have contributed to the historic run up.
In response, the White House issued a
call for an increase in the production of domestic oil, according to
Dow Jones Newswires.
The Dow Jones Industrial average
plummeted more than 200 points on
news that oil had hit the psychologically important milestone. Light
sweet crude for January delivery rose $4.02 to $100 a barrel on the New
York Mercantile Exchange, according to a Nymex spokeswoman. The price
later fell to $99.15.
Long-term fears stemmed
from a report that OPEC believes it won't be able to meet global demand
by 2024.
Surging
economies in China and India-- fed by oil and gasoline-- have sent
prices soaring over the past year, while tensions in oil-producing
nations like Nigeria and Iran have increasingly made investors nervous
and invited speculators to drive prices even higher.
In Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil
producer, bands of armed men invaded
Port Harcourt, the center of the oil industry Tuesday, attacking two
police stations and raiding the lobby of a major hotel, according to
the Associated Press..."
More:
Oil
eases after surge to $100
The
Bottom Line: It was bound to happen, sooner or later.
Wednesday,
January 2nd, 2008
- 2008
outlook: Fasten your seatbelts
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- "Wall
Street's top forecasters have some
good news and bad news for 2008. Many think stocks will head higher but
that unemployment will rise and the overall economy will slow.
In
other words, 2008 is going to look an awful lot like 2007. Despite
falling housing prices and the subprime mortgage meltdown igniting
fears about a broader economic slowdown, stocks are still on track to
finish higher in 2007.
For 2008, experts said
investors need to
be prepared for more woes in the slumping housing market and a slight
rise in unemployment.
"2008 will be a sluggish
year," Abby
Joseph Cohen, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. investment strategist, told
CNNMoney.com. She said many investors are concerned about what could be
weak earnings growth in 2008.
"Portfolio managers sense
that 2008 will be a very difficult year for corporate profits," she
said.
But
Cohen believes that stocks could finish 2008 in the plus column as
investors anticipate better news in the latter part of the year.
"We
believe that the worst time is right now. The worst numbers will be at
the end of 2007 and in the first half 2008. We expect an improvement in
the second half," she said..."
More:
Gold
heads for largest yearly rise in 30 years
From
the sub-prime to the ridiculous: how $100bn vanished
Mortgage
crisis takes a bite out of states and cities
Globalization
Goes Bad
More
needed to help stabilize U.S. housing: W.House
The Clock Is
Ticking On America's Last Year Of Freedom
The
Bottom Line: Just peachy...
-
Record
snow hits Michigan; New England braces
DETROIT,
Michigan (AP) -- "A fast-moving New Year's Day storm
dumped more than a foot of snow on southeastern Michigan, a record
blast that made driving hazardous, snarled the flight home for holiday
travelers and threatened to do the same in New England.
Thousands of people in
Michigan and Ohio lost power. Authorities
reported no deaths or serious injuries from the six-hour burst of snow
in Michigan that started around midnight, but they said there were many
spinouts and minor accidents.
The storm left 10 to 16
inches of
snow across parts of Oakland, Lapeer and St. Clair counties north of
Detroit, the National Weather Service said. The western St. Clair
County community of Capac, Michigan, reported 16 inches.
"This storm most
definitely packed quite a wallop," said Weather
Service meteorologist David Shuler in Oakland County. "This will be a
memorable storm for the amount of snow it dumped in such a short amount
of time."
He said it was the region's heaviest New
Year's Day
snowstorm on record and was unusual for its intensity. In the heart of
the storm, snow fell at a rate of at least 2 inches an hour, with
periods of 4 inches an hour..."
The
Bottom Line: It's all the fault of that blasted Global
Warming!!!
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