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News Archives, January 7-11, 2008




Friday, January 11th, 2008



Gold hits record high near $900 on rate cut hopes



      SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Gold hit a record high near $900 an ounce on Friday, driven by hopes of a half-point cut in U.S. interest rates later this month that could raise the metal's appeal as an alternative investment.

      The physical market suffered a setback as jewelers stayed on the sidelines and retail investors cashed in on their holdings to take advantage of sky-high prices.

      Spot gold <XAU=> rose as high as $898.00 before profit taking kicked in, mostly led by Japanese investors. It was later quoted at $889.60/890.40, still higher than $889.90/890.60 hit late in New York on Thursday.

      COMEX gold futures also touched a record high, with the most active February contract GCG8 rising as high as $899.90 an ounce before slipping to $891.90, down $1.70 from Thursday's close.

      "We are not talking about $900 now. We are talking about $1,000," said Ronald Leung, director of Lee Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong Hong.

      "Of course sentiment is really bullish, but I think the more bullish the market is, the more dangerous it is," he said.

      Leung expected gold to trade in the $885 to $900 range on Friday but said the market could succumb to heavy profit taking, especially given the extent of long positions held by funds.

      Gold, which rallied more than 30 percent in 2007, entered the new year on a firm note, rising more than 7 percent on a trail of market-friendly factors including a struggling dollar and record high crude oil prices. .."


More:

Bernanke signals bold fed action [intended] to lift growth [while killing the US$]

Dollar weaker after Bernanke flags Fed rate cuts

Thanks to Congress, Ethanol and Biofuel Mandates Cause Food Prices to Soar

Gold futures rally to new record high

Shoppers break out the plastic, hit six-month charging peak

Moody's says spending threatens US rating

Banana Republic, Here We Come

Bank of America in talks to buy Countrywide: sources

Dec retail sales somber




      The Bottom Line:  Turn out your pockets - it's time to pay the Piper.




Western storms may deliver deadliest winter


      DENVER (MSNBC)  - "Powerful storms in the West have delivered the best snow conditions in years but also have claimed lives from Colorado to Alaska, threatening to make this winter outdoor sports season the region's deadliest in recent memory.

      Avalanches have killed at least 15 people across the West since Nov. 12. In Washington alone, they have claimed nine lives this season, the most in that state since a single slide killed 11 climbers on Mount Rainier in 1981.

      "I'm not sure if they are taking more risks or if it is a lack of knowledge," said Maj. Rick Albers of the Clear Creek County Sheriff's Office in Colorado, referring to winter sports enthusiasts.

      The national annual average for avalanche deaths is about 25. Thirty-five people were killed nationwide in avalanches in the 2001-2002 season, the most on record, according to the U.S. Forest Service.

      Avalanches are the biggest killer, but they are not the only one. Blizzards, reckless skiing and snowboarding, and suddenly changing weather have also taken their toll..."




      The Bottom Line:  This Global Warming is also great at making it cold and snowy too.  Amazing.







Homeland Security to Unveil New Driver's License Rules


      WASHINGTON (Fox) —  "Americans born after Dec. 1, 1964, will have to get more secure driver's licenses in the next six years under ambitious post-9/11 security rules to be unveiled Friday by federal officials.

      The Homeland Security Department has spent years crafting the final regulations for the REAL ID Act, a law designed to make it harder for terrorists, illegal immigrants and con artists to get government-issued identification. The effort once envisioned to take effect in 2008 has been pushed back in the hopes of winning over skeptical state officials.

      Even with more time, more federal help and technical advances, REAL ID still faces stiff opposition from civil liberties groups.

      To address some of those concerns, the government now plans to phase in a secure ID initiative that Congress passed into law in 2005. Now, DHS plans a key deadline in 2011, and then further measures to be enacted three years later, according to congressional staffers who spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because an announcement had not yet been made. DHS officials briefed legislative aides on the details late Thursday.

      Without discussing details, Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff promoted the final rules for REAL ID during a meeting Thursday with an advisory council.

      "We worked very closely with the states in terms of developing a plan that I think will be inexpensive, reasonable to implement and produce the results," he said. "This is a win-win. As long as people use driver's licenses to identify themselves for whatever reason there's no reason for those licenses to be easily counterfeited or tampered with."

      In order to make the plan more appealing to cost-conscious states, federal authorities drastically reduced the expected cost from $14.6 billion to $3.9 billion, a 73 percent decline, according to Homeland Security officials familiar with the plan.

      The American Civil Liberties Union has fiercely objected to the effort, particularly the sharing of personal data among government agencies. The DHS and other officials say the only way to make sure an ID is safe is to check it against secure government data; critics like the ACLU say that creates a system that is more likely to be infiltrated and have its personal data pilfered.

      In its written objection to the law, the ACLU claims REAL ID amounts to the "first-ever national identity card system," which "would irreparably damage the fabric of American life."

      The Sept. 11 attacks were the main motivation for the changes... "




      The Bottom Line:  Well, lately it seems the Powers That Be are blatantly ignoring the Constitution and first 9 Amendments; why not make it an even ten and crap all over that one too?






Thursday, January 10th, 2008



Goldman Sachs sees recession in 2008



      NEW YORK (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs on Wednesday said it expects the U.S. economy to drop into recession this year, prompting the Federal Reserve to slash benchmark lending rates to 2.5 percent by the third quarter.

      In a note to clients, Goldman said real gross domestic product would contract by 1 percent on an annualized basis in both the second and third quarters. For all of 2008, the investment bank said GDP would rise by 0.8 percent.

      The unemployment rate will rise to 6.5 percent in 2009 from the current 5 percent, it said.

      The weakening economy will force the Fed to lower policy rates by an additional 1.75 percentage points from the current 4.25 percent. Starting in September, the Fed cut rates at the last three meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee, reducing the target rate on loans between banks by 1 percentage point from 5.25 percent.

      Goldman strongly advises fund managers to overweight health care, consumer staples, energy and utilities. They are significantly underweight consumer discretionary, financials, industrials, materials and information technology.

       The three most significant changes to their sector recommendations are the reduction in the financial sector weighting by 300 basis points to 14 percent, the information technology weighting by 400 basis points to 15 percent, and the increase in their health care weighting by 300 basis points to 17 percent, the firm said..."


More:

Recession dead ahead?

The U.S. Debt Clock Just Keeps on Ticking

      Debt to the Penny: Link Here (updated every day)

Countrywide says foreclosures highest on record

Gold firms near record high




      The Bottom Line:  One by one, they all are waking up to reality (about time).




South Asia hit by food shortages


      Bangladesh (BBC) - "People across South Asia are struggling to cope with a severe shortage of affordable wheat and rice.

       There have been queues outside Pakistani shops in towns around the country, and flour prices have shot up.  Wheat flour is a staple foodstuff in Pakistan, where rotis or unleavened bread are eaten with almost every meal.   Last week Afghanistan appealed for foreign help to combat a wheat shortage while Bangladesh recently warned it faced a crisis over rice supplies.      

       Global wheat prices are at record highs. Problems have been compounded by crop failures in the northern hemisphere and an increase in demand from developing countries.  Afghan Commerce Minister Mohammad Amin Farhang said wheat shortages could lead to serious problems during the winter.

      His call came amid rising discontent inside Afghanistan at the spiralling cost of wheat and other basic foods.  Afghanistan does not grow enough wheat to feed all its people and is partially dependent on imports.  On Thursday, the chief of the Bangladesh army, Gen Moeen U Ahmed, said that he was "very concerned" about the problem of rice supplies which he said must be redressed immediately.

      Many people in the country have been hit hard by spiralling food prices, which in some cases have doubled over the last year, mostly because of damage caused by heavy monsoon rain.  A delegation from Bangladesh is now in India to discuss importing rice to offset the shortages..."



      The Bottom Line:  Whether you know it or not, this has world-wide implications.







6.4 earthquake hits off Oregon coast


      WASHINGTON  (MSNBC) - "A magnitude 6.4 earthquake struck off the central Oregon coast at 5:37 p.m. PT Wednesday, the U.S. Geological Survey reported.

      The temblor was located 151 miles west-northwest of Barview, Ore., at a depth of 6.2 miles, the USGS said. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center said no current warning or advisory was in effect following the quake.

      Lanny Boston, the fire chief in Bandon, Ore., also 151 miles from the site of the quake off the Oregon coast, said he had not felt the quake and had received no reports of damage..."


More:

6.4-Magnitude Quake Strikes Off Oregon Coast




      The Bottom Line:  That's fairly powerful; imagine if that were on land near a major city.






Wednesday, January 9th, 2008



Home sales sink, outlook darkens



      NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- "Contracts to sell existing homes fell in November and there could be darker days ahead for home values, which are expected to post their biggest decline on record this quarter as a full-year rebound in prices now isn't expected until 2009, according to an industry trade group.

      The National Association of Realtors' Pending Home Sales Index, which measures the level of sales agreements, fell 2.6 percent to 87.6 in November, turning lower after two months of modest improvement from a record low hit in August. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast only a 0.8 percent decline.

      The Realtors also cut its existing home price estimate for the current quarter to a 5.3 percent year-over-year decline, which would mean the current period would see the steepest drop in that price measure on record.

      Only a month ago the group's estimate was for only a 2.5 percent drop in prices in the first quarter.

      The group's forecast released Tuesday also no longer sees even a modest rebound in existing home prices this year, as it had previously forecast, and pushed back the estimate of a full-year uptick in prices to 2009.

      The latest reading on pending home sales is better only than the pace of sales in August and September, when the meltdown in mortgage markets cut off the availability of mortgage financing for many buyers.

      "It's not surprising, but it's certainly not good news," said Mike Schenk, senior economist at Credit Union National Association. "We may be near the bottom. But the trouble is we're likely to stay at or near the bottom for a while. It's going to take us 6 to 9 months to claw our way out of this situation, at least.".."


More:

Nikkei hits new 18-month low as U.S. recession looms

Higher food prices start to pinch consumers

Fannie Mae boss sees trouble until 2010

Merrill: Recession is already here

Reality Comes to Wall Street [Finaly]

Wall Street's terrible Tuesday

Gold hits record above $890 on dollar, oil

Ford CEO says U.S. economy a concern

Best Buy CEO sees signs of tougher [retail] climate

Wall St's early bruising spells trouble ahead in 2008

Price of gold reaches an historic high




      The Bottom Line:  Thus begins the 7 lean years.




Oil up further on Nigeria, U.S. crude stock concerns


      SINGAPORE (Reuters) - "Oil prices extended gains on Wednesday, as threats of violence to Nigeria's oil supply and ever falling U.S. crude stocks outweighed concerns about the economy of the world's biggest energy consumer.

      U.S. crude CLc1 gained 23 cents at $96.56 a barrel by 10:42 p.m. EST, adding to the $1.24 rise a day earlier. London Brent crude LCOc1 rose 18 to $95.72.

      "The market has shifted its focus to the bullish factors such as the Nigerian issue and the falling inventories, for the short term at least," said Yusuke Seta of Fimat Japan Inc.

      "But I believe the upside will remain limited by the growing concerns over the weak U.S. economy in the medium term."

      Militant groups in Nigeria, the world's eighth-largest exporter, are preparing to attack oil facilities in the troubled country that has already lost 20 percent of its output due to previous assaults.

      Crude oil inventories in the United States, where stockpiles have already plummeted to a three-year low, are expected to slide further, a report from the U.S. government due later on Wednesday is expected to show.

      A Reuters poll of 14 analysts forecast that stock levels will fall by 1.3 million barrels to 288.3 million barrels for the week ended January 4, partly due to export disruptions from key supplier Mexico..."




      The Bottom Line:  Shortages of food and now oil?  Oh no; we're heading for dark waters.






Tuesday, January 8th, 2008



Father of Bush tax cuts: Recession likely



      NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- "Martin Feldstein, the Harvard economist credited with being one of the fathers of the Bush administration tax cuts, says the U.S. economy is now likely to slip into a recession, and that avoiding one will take a new round of tax cuts and interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

      Feldstein is president and CEO of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the organization charged with determining when the economy is in a recession and when it is growing. He told CNNMoney.com that he had thought the chance of a recession was about 50-50 even before last week.

      But he said he now believes a recession is likely, as he pointed to both a report from the Institute of Supply Management showing manufacturing activity in decline for the first time in almost a year, and Friday's December jobs report that showed a jump in the unemployment rate to a two-year high.

      He did not give a new percentage for the chance of a recession, saying that will depend on what both the Federal Reserve and Congress and the administration do in response to the weakness.

      "It's not just clear that lower interest rates and monetary policy more generally will have enough traction because of conditions in the credit market," he said when asked if the Fed could hold off a recession. "We should have some fiscal stimulus to back that up."

      Feldstein made his remarks the same day President Bush gave a speech in Chicago in which he said that economic indicators are "increasingly mixed," and he acknowledged that many Americans are growing anxious about the economy. But the president argued the economy itself is resilient..."


More:

Lessons that Will Be Ignored

Laughably Implausable Concepts

Japan Ghosts of Bubbles Past Haunt U.S. in 2008: William Pasek

Russia raises grain export duties to 40%




      The Bottom Line:  This downward "trend" has the inertia going to hit bottom.




Iranians threatened U.S. ships in Hormuz: Pentagon


      WASHINGTON (Reuters) - "Iranian boats aggressively approached three U.S. Naval ships in the Strait of Hormuz, a main shipping route for Gulf oil, at the weekend and threatened that the ships would explode, U.S. officials said on Monday.

      Iran dismissed U.S. concerns about the incident, saying it was a routine contact. But the Pentagon termed the Iranian actions "careless, reckless and potentially hostile" and said Tehran should provide an explanation.

      "This is a very volatile area and the risk of an incident escalating is real," U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said. "It is a reminder that there is a very unpredictable government in Tehran."

      Vice Adm. Kevin Cosgriff, the commander of the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet, which is based in the Gulf, said five Iranian fast boats moved aggressively toward the U.S. ships in international waters and their actions were "unduly provocative."

      "The ships received a radio call that was threatening in nature, to the effect that they were closing on our ships and ... the U.S. ships would explode," Cosgriff told reporters at the Pentagon via videolink from his Bahrain headquarters.

       The incident was the latest sign of tension between Washington and Tehran, at odds over a range of issues from Iran's nuclear program to U.S. allegations of Iranian support for terrorism and interference in Iraq..."


More:

U.S. Warns Iran Against 'Provocative Actions' Following Incident in Straight of Hormuz



      The Bottom Line:  Gulf of Tonkin to come?  Or just another false alarm?






Monday, January 7th, 2008



December Unemployment Rate Hits 2-Year High at 5%



      WASHINGTON (foxbusiness.com) -- "Hiring practically stalled in December, driving the nation's unemployment rate up to a two-year high of 5% and fanning fears of a recession.

      Employers last month added the fewest new jobs to their payrolls in more than four years, according to the employment report released Friday by the Labor Department. The report showed that employment conditions are deteriorating, strained by a housing slump and credit crunch that are sapping economic strength.

      "The economy is getting hit by some body blows. The big question is whether the economy can withstand it or will it take a fall," said Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics.

      The unemployment rate jumped from 4.7% in November to 5% in December, the highest since November 2005 after the Gulf Coast hurricanes dealt the country a mighty blow. Total payrolls -- both private employers and government -- grew by just 18,000 last month, the worst showing since August 2003, when the economy suffered job losses as it struggled to recover from the 2001 recession.

      On Wall Street, the stocks tumbled. The Dow Jones industrials were down more than 150 points in morning trading.

      With the odds of a recession increasing, President Bush is exploring a package to stimulate the economy. The president, who has been coping with low marks for his handling of the economy, isn't expected to make any decisions until later this month; He delivers his State of the Union address to the country on Jan. 28.

      The White House stressed Friday that it is on top of the situation. "You have to be persistent in looking at what the threats are to economic growth and stay after them," said deputy press secretary Tony Fratto.

      The December employment picture was much weaker than economists were expecting. They were forecasting the unemployment rate to bump up to 4.8% and for employers to add around 70,000 jobs to their payrolls..."


More:

Wall Street looking out for signs of recession

Fading Fast?

'Subprime' is word of year 2007

Enter 2008: The System Breaks




      The Bottom Line:  No more soft-landing to hope for at this point.




Winter storms batter western states


      LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - "Storms battered the western United States on Saturday with strong winds, heavy rains and a blanket of snow that caused widespread power outages, a levee break in Nevada and two deaths in California.

      In the Los Angeles-area city of Chino, a woman was swept away in floodwaters when she tried to abandon her stalled car, and in Yuba City, north of Sacramento, a worker was killed when a falling tree struck him, according to a spokesman for the California Governor's Office of Emergency Services.

      A canal levee broke near Reno, Nevada, flooding an estimated 800 homes and causing some 3,500 residents to evacuate by helicopter and boat, a Nevada Department of Public Safety spokesman said.

      Oregon Gov. Ted Kulongoski declared a state of emergency in Umatilla County in the northeastern corner of that state due to high winds that ravaged the area.

      The first of three storms swept through Northern California on Friday, blowing scaffolding off buildings and shutting down streets in San Francisco. Big trucks were barred from the Golden Gate Bridge, where winds reached 55 mph.

      Mountains in the eastern part of the state were hit by major snowfall and wind gusts as high as 100 to 150 mph..."



More:

Calif. Mountains Under 5 Feet of Snow

Several deaths from unusual freezing temperatures in Mexico

Br-r-r!  Where did global warming go?


      The Bottom Line:  I decided I needed to buy snow-shoes today when I was walking to my vehicle and fell up to my armpits in snow.








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