News
Archives, January 7-11, 2008
Friday,
January 11th, 2008
- Gold
hits record high near $900 on rate cut hopes
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Gold hit a
record high near $900 an ounce on
Friday, driven by hopes of a half-point cut in U.S. interest rates
later this month that could raise the metal's appeal as an alternative
investment.
The physical market
suffered a setback as jewelers stayed on the
sidelines and retail investors cashed in on their holdings to take
advantage of sky-high prices.
Spot gold <XAU=>
rose as high as $898.00 before profit taking
kicked in, mostly led by Japanese investors. It was later quoted at
$889.60/890.40, still higher than $889.90/890.60 hit late in New York
on Thursday.
COMEX gold futures also
touched a record high, with the most active
February contract GCG8 rising as high as $899.90 an ounce before
slipping to $891.90, down $1.70 from Thursday's close.
"We are not talking about
$900 now. We are talking about $1,000,"
said Ronald Leung, director of Lee Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong Hong.
"Of course sentiment is
really bullish, but I think the more bullish the market is, the more
dangerous it is," he said.
Leung expected gold to
trade in the $885 to $900 range on Friday but
said the market could succumb to heavy profit taking, especially given
the extent of long positions held by funds.
Gold,
which rallied more than 30 percent in 2007, entered the new
year on a firm note, rising more than 7 percent on a trail of
market-friendly factors including a struggling dollar and record high
crude oil prices. .."
More:
Bernanke
signals bold fed action [intended] to lift growth [while killing the
US$]
Dollar
weaker after Bernanke flags Fed rate cuts
Thanks to Congress,
Ethanol and Biofuel Mandates Cause Food Prices to Soar
Gold
futures rally to new record high
Shoppers break out the
plastic, hit six-month charging peak
Moody's
says spending threatens US rating
Banana
Republic, Here We Come
Bank
of America in talks to buy Countrywide: sources
Dec
retail sales somber
The
Bottom Line: Turn out your pockets - it's time to pay the
Piper.
-
Western storms may
deliver deadliest winter
DENVER (MSNBC) - "Powerful
storms in the West have
delivered the best snow conditions in years but also have claimed lives
from Colorado to Alaska, threatening to make this winter outdoor sports
season the region's deadliest in recent memory.
Avalanches
have killed at least 15 people across the West since Nov. 12. In
Washington alone, they have claimed nine lives this season, the most in
that state since a single slide killed 11 climbers on Mount Rainier in
1981.
"I'm not
sure if they are taking more risks or if it is a lack of knowledge,"
said Maj. Rick Albers of the Clear Creek County Sheriff's Office in
Colorado, referring to winter sports enthusiasts.
The
national annual average for avalanche
deaths is about 25. Thirty-five people were killed nationwide in
avalanches in the 2001-2002 season, the most on record, according to
the U.S. Forest Service.
Avalanches
are the biggest killer, but they are not the only one. Blizzards,
reckless skiing and snowboarding, and suddenly changing weather have
also taken their toll..."
The
Bottom Line: This Global Warming is also great at making
it
cold and snowy too. Amazing.
- Homeland
Security to Unveil New Driver's License Rules
WASHINGTON (Fox)
—
"Americans born after Dec. 1, 1964, will have to get more secure
driver's licenses in the next six years under ambitious post-9/11
security rules to be unveiled Friday by federal officials.
The
Homeland Security Department has spent years crafting the final
regulations for the REAL ID Act, a law designed to make it harder for
terrorists, illegal immigrants and con artists to get government-issued
identification. The effort once envisioned to take effect in 2008 has
been pushed back in the hopes of winning over skeptical state officials.
Even with more time, more federal help and
technical advances, REAL ID still faces stiff opposition from civil
liberties groups.
To
address some of those concerns, the government now plans to phase in a
secure ID initiative that Congress passed into law in 2005. Now, DHS
plans a key deadline in 2011, and then further measures to be enacted
three years later, according to congressional staffers who spoke to The
Associated Press on condition of anonymity because an announcement had
not yet been made. DHS officials briefed legislative aides on the
details late Thursday.
Without discussing
details, Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff promoted the
final rules for REAL ID during a meeting Thursday with an advisory
council.
"We worked very closely with
the states in terms of developing a plan that I think will be
inexpensive, reasonable to implement and produce the results," he said.
"This is a win-win. As long as people use driver's licenses to identify
themselves for whatever reason there's no reason for those licenses to
be easily counterfeited or tampered with."
In
order to make the plan more appealing to cost-conscious states, federal
authorities drastically reduced the expected cost from $14.6 billion to
$3.9 billion, a 73 percent decline, according to Homeland Security
officials familiar with the plan.
The American
Civil Liberties Union has fiercely objected to the effort, particularly
the sharing of personal data among government agencies. The DHS and
other officials say the only way to make sure an ID is safe is to check
it against secure government data; critics like the ACLU say that
creates a system that is more likely to be infiltrated and have its
personal data pilfered.
In its written
objection to the law, the ACLU claims REAL ID amounts to the
"first-ever national identity card system," which "would irreparably
damage the fabric of American life."
The Sept. 11 attacks were the main
motivation for the changes... "
The
Bottom Line: Well, lately it seems the Powers That Be are blatantly
ignoring the Constitution and first 9 Amendments; why not make it an
even ten and crap all over that one too?
Thursday,
January 10th, 2008
- Goldman
Sachs sees recession in 2008
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs on
Wednesday said it expects the
U.S. economy to drop into recession this year, prompting the Federal
Reserve to slash benchmark lending rates to 2.5 percent by the third
quarter.
In a note to clients,
Goldman said real gross domestic product would
contract by 1 percent on an annualized basis in both the second and
third quarters. For all of 2008, the investment bank said GDP would
rise by 0.8 percent.
The unemployment rate
will rise to 6.5 percent in 2009 from the current 5 percent, it said.
The weakening economy
will force the Fed to lower policy rates by an
additional 1.75 percentage points from the current 4.25 percent.
Starting in September, the Fed cut rates at the last three meetings of
the Federal Open Market Committee, reducing the target rate on loans
between banks by 1 percentage point from 5.25 percent.
Goldman strongly advises
fund managers to overweight health care,
consumer staples, energy and utilities. They are significantly
underweight consumer discretionary, financials, industrials, materials
and information technology.
The three most significant changes to their sector recommendations
are the reduction in the financial sector weighting by 300 basis points
to 14 percent, the information technology weighting by 400 basis points
to 15 percent, and the increase in their health care weighting by 300
basis points to 17 percent, the firm said..."
More:
Recession
dead ahead?
The
U.S. Debt Clock Just Keeps on Ticking
Debt to the
Penny: Link
Here (updated every day)
Countrywide
says foreclosures highest on record
Gold
firms near record high
The
Bottom Line: One by one, they all are waking up to reality
(about time).
-
South Asia
hit by food shortages
Bangladesh (BBC) - "People across
South Asia are struggling to cope with a severe shortage of affordable
wheat and rice.
There have been queues outside Pakistani shops in towns around the
country, and flour prices have shot up. Wheat flour is a staple
foodstuff in Pakistan, where rotis or unleavened bread are eaten with
almost every meal. Last week Afghanistan appealed for
foreign help to
combat a wheat shortage while Bangladesh recently warned it faced a
crisis over rice supplies.
Global wheat prices are at record
highs. Problems have
been compounded by crop failures in the northern hemisphere and an
increase in demand from developing countries. Afghan Commerce
Minister Mohammad Amin Farhang said wheat shortages could lead to
serious problems during the winter.
His call came amid rising discontent
inside Afghanistan at the spiralling cost of wheat and other basic
foods. Afghanistan does not grow enough wheat to feed all its
people and is partially dependent on imports. On Thursday,
the chief of the Bangladesh army, Gen Moeen
U Ahmed, said that he was "very concerned" about the problem of rice
supplies which he said must be redressed immediately.
Many people in the country have been hit
hard by
spiralling food prices, which in some cases have doubled over the last
year, mostly because of damage caused by heavy monsoon rain. A
delegation from Bangladesh is now in India to discuss importing rice to
offset the shortages..."
The
Bottom Line: Whether you know it or not, this has
world-wide implications.
- 6.4
earthquake hits off Oregon coast
WASHINGTON (MSNBC) - "A
magnitude 6.4 earthquake struck
off the central Oregon coast at 5:37 p.m. PT Wednesday, the U.S.
Geological Survey reported.
The
temblor was located 151 miles west-northwest of Barview, Ore., at a
depth of 6.2 miles, the USGS said. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center
said no current warning or advisory was in effect following the quake.
Lanny
Boston, the fire chief in Bandon, Ore., also 151 miles from the site of
the quake off the Oregon coast, said he had not felt the quake and had
received no reports of damage..."
More:
6.4-Magnitude
Quake Strikes Off Oregon Coast
The
Bottom Line: That's fairly powerful; imagine if that were
on land near a major city.
Wednesday,
January 9th, 2008
- Home
sales sink, outlook darkens
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- "Contracts
to sell existing homes fell in
November and there could be darker days ahead for home values, which
are expected to post their biggest decline on record this quarter as a
full-year rebound in prices now isn't expected until 2009, according to
an industry trade group.
The National Association
of Realtors'
Pending Home Sales Index, which measures the level of sales agreements,
fell 2.6 percent to 87.6 in November, turning lower after two months of
modest improvement from a record low hit in August. Economists surveyed
by Briefing.com had forecast only a 0.8 percent decline.
The
Realtors also cut its existing home price estimate for the current
quarter to a 5.3 percent year-over-year decline, which would mean the
current period would see the steepest drop in that price measure on
record.
Only a month ago the
group's estimate was for only a 2.5 percent drop in prices in the first
quarter.
The
group's forecast released Tuesday also no longer sees even a modest
rebound in existing home prices this year, as it had previously
forecast, and pushed back the estimate of a full-year uptick in prices
to 2009.
The latest reading on
pending home sales is better only
than the pace of sales in August and September, when the meltdown in
mortgage markets cut off the availability of mortgage financing for
many buyers.
"It's not surprising, but
it's certainly not good
news," said Mike Schenk, senior economist at Credit Union National
Association. "We may be near the bottom. But the trouble is we're
likely to stay at or near the bottom for a while. It's going to take us
6 to 9 months to claw our way out of this situation, at least.".."
More:
Nikkei
hits new 18-month low as U.S. recession looms
Higher
food prices start to pinch consumers
Fannie Mae boss sees
trouble until 2010
Merrill:
Recession is already here
Reality
Comes to Wall Street [Finaly]
Wall
Street's terrible Tuesday
Gold
hits record above $890 on dollar, oil
Ford
CEO says U.S. economy a concern
Best
Buy CEO sees signs of tougher [retail] climate
Wall
St's early bruising spells trouble ahead in 2008
Price of gold reaches an
historic high
The
Bottom Line: Thus begins the 7 lean years.
-
Oil
up further on Nigeria, U.S. crude stock concerns
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - "Oil prices
extended gains on Wednesday, as
threats of violence to Nigeria's oil supply and ever falling U.S. crude
stocks outweighed concerns about the economy of the world's biggest
energy consumer.
U.S. crude CLc1 gained 23
cents at $96.56 a barrel by 10:42 p.m.
EST, adding to the $1.24 rise a day earlier. London Brent crude LCOc1
rose 18 to $95.72.
"The market has shifted
its focus to the bullish factors such as the
Nigerian issue and the falling inventories, for the short term at
least," said Yusuke Seta of Fimat Japan Inc.
"But I believe the upside
will remain limited by the growing concerns over the weak U.S. economy
in the medium term."
Militant groups in
Nigeria, the world's eighth-largest exporter, are
preparing to attack oil facilities in the troubled country that has
already lost 20 percent of its output due to previous assaults.
Crude oil inventories in
the United States, where stockpiles have
already plummeted to a three-year low, are expected to slide further, a
report from the U.S. government due later on Wednesday is expected to
show.
A
Reuters poll of 14 analysts forecast that stock levels will fall
by 1.3 million barrels to 288.3 million barrels for the week ended
January 4, partly due to export disruptions from key supplier Mexico..."
The
Bottom Line: Shortages of food and now oil? Oh no;
we're heading for dark waters.
Tuesday,
January 8th, 2008
- Father
of Bush tax cuts: Recession likely
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- "Martin
Feldstein, the Harvard economist
credited with being one of the fathers of the Bush administration tax
cuts, says the U.S. economy is now likely to slip into a recession, and
that avoiding one will take a new round of tax cuts and interest rate
cuts from the Federal Reserve.
Feldstein is president
and CEO of
the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the organization
charged with determining when the economy is in a recession and when it
is growing. He told CNNMoney.com that he had thought the chance of a
recession was about 50-50 even before last week.
But he said he
now believes a recession is likely, as he pointed to both a report from
the Institute of Supply Management showing manufacturing activity in
decline for the first time in almost a year, and Friday's December jobs
report that showed a jump in the unemployment rate to a two-year high.
He
did not give a new percentage for the chance of a recession, saying
that will depend on what both the Federal Reserve and Congress and the
administration do in response to the weakness.
"It's not just
clear that lower interest rates and monetary policy more generally will
have enough traction because of conditions in the credit market," he
said when asked if the Fed could hold off a recession. "We should have
some fiscal stimulus to back that up."
Feldstein made his remarks the same day
President Bush gave a speech in Chicago in which he said that economic
indicators are "increasingly mixed,"
and he acknowledged that many Americans are growing anxious about the
economy. But the president argued the economy itself is
resilient..."
More:
Lessons
that Will Be Ignored
Laughably
Implausable Concepts
Japan
Ghosts of Bubbles Past Haunt U.S. in 2008: William Pasek
Russia
raises grain export duties to 40%
The
Bottom Line: This downward "trend" has the inertia going
to hit bottom.
-
Iranians
threatened U.S. ships in Hormuz: Pentagon
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - "Iranian boats
aggressively approached three
U.S. Naval ships in the Strait of Hormuz, a main shipping route for
Gulf oil, at the weekend and threatened that the ships would explode,
U.S. officials said on Monday.
Iran dismissed U.S.
concerns about the incident, saying it was a
routine contact. But the Pentagon termed the Iranian actions "careless,
reckless and potentially hostile" and said Tehran should provide an
explanation.
"This is a very volatile
area and the risk of an incident escalating
is real," U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said. "It is a reminder
that there is a very unpredictable government in Tehran."
Vice Adm. Kevin Cosgriff,
the commander of the U.S. Navy's Fifth
Fleet, which is based in the Gulf, said five Iranian fast boats moved
aggressively toward the U.S. ships in international waters and their
actions were "unduly provocative."
"The ships received a
radio call that was threatening in nature, to
the effect that they were closing on our ships and ... the U.S. ships
would explode," Cosgriff told reporters at the Pentagon via videolink
from his Bahrain headquarters.
The incident was the latest sign of tension between Washington and
Tehran, at odds over a range of issues from Iran's nuclear program to
U.S. allegations of Iranian support for terrorism and interference in
Iraq..."
More:
U.S. Warns
Iran Against 'Provocative Actions' Following Incident in Straight of
Hormuz
The
Bottom Line: Gulf of Tonkin to come? Or just another
false alarm?
Monday,
January 7th, 2008
- December
Unemployment Rate Hits 2-Year High at 5%
WASHINGTON (foxbusiness.com) --
"Hiring practically stalled in December, driving the nation's
unemployment rate up to a two-year high of 5%
and fanning fears of a recession.
Employers
last month added the fewest new jobs to their payrolls in more than
four years, according to the employment report released Friday by the
Labor Department. The report showed that employment conditions are
deteriorating, strained by a housing slump and credit crunch that are
sapping economic strength.
"The economy is getting
hit by some body blows. The big question is
whether the economy can withstand it or will it take a fall," said Ken
Mayland, president of ClearView Economics.
The unemployment rate
jumped from 4.7% in November to 5% in December, the highest since
November 2005 after the Gulf Coast hurricanes dealt the country a
mighty blow. Total payrolls -- both private employers and government --
grew by just 18,000 last month, the worst showing since August 2003,
when the economy suffered job losses as it struggled to recover from
the 2001 recession.
On Wall Street, the stocks tumbled. The
Dow Jones industrials were down more than 150 points in morning trading.
With
the odds of a recession increasing, President Bush is exploring a
package to stimulate the economy. The president, who has been coping
with low marks for his handling of the economy, isn't expected to make
any decisions until later this month; He delivers his State of the
Union address to the country on Jan. 28.
The White House
stressed Friday that it is on top of the situation. "You have to be
persistent in looking at what the threats are to economic growth and
stay after them," said deputy press secretary Tony Fratto.
The
December employment picture was much weaker than economists were
expecting. They were forecasting the unemployment rate to bump up to
4.8%
and for employers to add around 70,000 jobs to their payrolls..."
More:
Wall Street looking out
for signs of recession
Fading
Fast?
'Subprime'
is word of year 2007
Enter
2008: The System Breaks
The
Bottom Line: No more soft-landing to hope for at this
point.
-
Winter
storms batter western states
LOS
ANGELES (Reuters) - "Storms battered the western United States
on
Saturday with strong winds, heavy rains and a blanket of snow that
caused widespread power outages, a levee break in Nevada and two deaths
in California.
In the Los Angeles-area
city of Chino, a woman was swept away in
floodwaters when she tried to abandon her stalled car, and in Yuba
City, north of Sacramento, a worker was killed when a falling tree
struck him, according to a spokesman for the California Governor's
Office of Emergency Services.
A canal levee broke near
Reno, Nevada, flooding an estimated 800
homes and causing some 3,500 residents to evacuate by helicopter and
boat, a Nevada Department of Public Safety spokesman said.
Oregon Gov. Ted
Kulongoski declared a state of emergency in Umatilla
County in the northeastern corner of that state due to high winds that
ravaged the area.
The first of three storms
swept through Northern California on
Friday, blowing scaffolding off buildings and shutting down streets in
San Francisco. Big trucks were barred from the Golden Gate Bridge,
where winds reached 55 mph.
Mountains in the eastern
part of the state were hit by major snowfall and wind gusts as high as
100 to 150 mph..."
More:
Calif.
Mountains Under 5 Feet of Snow
Several
deaths from unusual freezing temperatures in Mexico
Br-r-r!
Where did global warming go?
The
Bottom Line: I decided I needed to buy snow-shoes today
when I was walking to my vehicle and fell up to my armpits in snow.
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