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News Archives, January 14-19, 2008




Saturday, January 19th, 2008



The Panic Starts



Author: Jim Sinclair (jsmineset.com) - "Dear CIGAs,

      There is no doubt the Fed and the PPT are meeting right now. A drop of over 300 points on the Dow after the Chairman of the Federal Reserve speaks publicly presages a 1000 point break in the Dow Jones Industrial Average coming quite quickly, if not tomorrow.

      Unless the equity markets can be calmed, a panic is about to happen, making the statement "This is it" a horrible reality.

 

If the equity markets cannot be calmed then:

  • Recognize this is the Formula happening like everything else much sooner and much bigger in its implications than anticipated.
  • Gold will rise to $1650 as an almost immediate effect of what will be done to attempt to fend off a total panic starting to take place in general equities, therein threatening to be followed by all credit markets of all kinds.
  • The funds and hotshot short term traders in gold shares will be killed by the upward explosion of the gold price about to occur.
  • The PPT and the Fed will step out of gold’s way because gold is one of the tools used in 1930 by Roosevelt and in 2000 by Bush. It will be used again now on the upside.
  • Gold is the only insurance there is against what all this means because a panic in equities will blow the financial system, already coming apart, to smithereens.
  • All country funds would shut down on any further investments in "at the wall" financial institutions.
  • The rollover in credit and default derivatives would exceed the entire foreign debt of the USA.
  • The rest of the $450 trillion dollar mountain of derivatives would start a disintegration like nothing you have every seen in your lifetime.
  • Consumer demand would slam shut.
  • The auto industry might as well go into liquidation this coming Monday, avoiding the June 2008 rush.
  • The US dollar would burn a hole in the floor going directly to .5200 or lower.
  • As the dollar disintegrates gold would rocket to and through $1650 in days.
  • The markets for general equities would all have to institute total trading halts every 100 points on the downside for 30 minutes each.
  • All commercial call loans would be called.
  • All debtors one day late on any payment, lacking grace period, would be liquidated. All debtors over one day of the grace period would be liquidated.
  • It is clearly visible to anyone with eyes or a mind to think that the PPT has lost all semblance of control in the equity markets and will soon in all remaining markets.
  • The commercial paper credit market which is almost dead will die totally.
  • Should no emergency action take place soon, you will see an old fashioned panic of the 1929 variety.
  • Just as emotional fools sell gold and gold shares, be assured that more emotional general equity fools will unload and bring the averages down more than ever in history in one day.
  • Recognize this is the Formula happening like everything else much sooner and much bigger in its implications than anticipated.
  • Emergency action will be all splash and theatrics but truthfully the cat is out of the bag. It buys some time but corrects nothing. It makes the Formula 100% correct.
  • There now must be EMERGENCY ACTION because the Chairman of the Fed has BOMBED OUT PUBLICLY and a PANIC is about to occur. Expect EMERGENCY ACTION in days, not weeks.
 
If you have not protected yourself, you may only have days to do so now.
.."


More:

Threat of Sovereign Wealth Funds

Disastrous Dow tumbles again



      The Bottom Line:  And so it begins.






Wednesday, January 16th, 2008



Dollar tumbles on Fed rate cut speculation



      TOKYO (Reuters) - "The dollar hit a 2-½ year low against the yen and a record low versus the Swiss franc on Wednesday, hurt by fears of a U.S. recession and speculation about an early Federal Reserve interest rate cut.

      U.S. data on Tuesday showing that retail sales last year were at their lowest since 2002 further fuelled market rumors that the U.S. central bank was holding an emergency meeting to cut rates immediately.

      But a Fed spokeswoman declined to comment on the rumors.

      Views on the U.S. economy were also dented after Citigroup Inc, the largest U.S. bank by assets, reported its first quarterly loss since its establishment in 1998.

      "It's hard for anyone to buy the dollar at the moment as people are very pessimistic about the U.S. economy, haunted by the possibility of a recession there," said a trader at a Japanese trust bank.

      The U.S. unit struck a fresh 2-½ year trough and was trading around 106.23 yen on electronic trading platform EBS, down 0.4 percent on the day and the lowest since May 2005.

      The euro was up 0.3 percent to $1.4845, but off a seven-week peak of $1.4923 hit the previous day and a record high of $1.4969 struck in November.

      The dollar hit a record low against the Swiss franc below 1.0855 on EBS..."


More:

Gold and the Bflationary Depression

Whole Prices Soared Last Year

Shadow spreads across the US economy

States to Tighten Belts as Weakness Of Economy Cuts Into Tax Receipts

Key Word: Sell

Soft retail sales may signal recession

Stocks thrashed, dollar flops on recession fear

Weak retail sales and Citigroup plague Wall St.

Citigroup's $9.8bn sub-prime loss

A Citi-Sized Blow: Dow Plunges 277 to 9-Month Low




      The Bottom Line:  We are definately in a recession-climate situation right now... the real question is, "how bad is it going to get?"




Plague a growing but overlooked threat: study

    

      LONDON (Reuters) - "Plague, the disease that devastated medieval Europe, is re-emerging worldwide and poses a growing but overlooked threat, researchers warned on Tuesday.

      While it has only killed some 100 to 200 people annually over the past 20 years, plague has appeared in new countries in recent decades and is now shifting into Africa, Michael Begon, an ecologist at the University of Liverpool and colleagues said.

      A bacterium known as Yersinia pestis causes bubonic plague, known in medieval times as the Black Death when it was spread by infected fleas, and the more dangerous pneumonic plague, spread from one person to another through coughing or sneezing.

      "Although the number of human cases of plague is relatively low, it would be a mistake to overlook its threat to humanity, because of the disease's inherent communicability, rapid spread, rapid clinical course, and high mortality if left untreated," they wrote in the journal Public Library of Science journal PloS Medicine.

      Rodents carry plague, which is virtually impossible to wipe out and moves through the animal world as a constant threat to humans, Begon said. Both forms can kill within days if not treated with antibiotics.

      "You can't realistically get rid of all the rodents in the world," he said in a telephone interview. "Plague appears to be on the increase, and for the first time there have been major outbreaks in Africa."

      Globally the World Health Organization reports about 1,000 to 3,000 plague cases each year, with most in the last five years occurring in Madagascar, Tanzania, Mozambique, Malawi, Uganda and the Democratic Republic of Congo. The United States sees about 10 to 20 cases each year..."



      The Bottom Line:  Definitely something to keep a close watch on.







Russia to have 50 silo-based Topol-M ICBM systems by end of 2008


      MOSCOW  (RIA Novosti) - "Russia will fully equip a fifth strategic missile regiment with new silo-based intercontinental ballistic missiles in 2008, a spokesman for the Strategic Missile Forces (SMF) said on Thursday.

      At present, Russia operates 48 Topol-M systems (NATO reporting name SS-27) and will deploy another two with a missile regiment in the Saratov Region in southern Russia this year, bringing the total number to 50.

      "Rearmament of the Tatishchevo missile regiment with two silo-based Topol-M systems will be completed in 2008," Colonel Alexander Vovk said, adding that each regiment has 10 missile complexes.

      The missile, with a range of about 7,000 miles (11,000 kms), is said to be immune to any current and future U.S. ABM defense. It is capable of making evasive maneuvers to avoid a kill by the use of terminal phase interceptors, and carries targeting countermeasures and decoys.

      It is also shielded against radiation, electromagnetic pulse, nuclear blasts at distances more than 500 meters (1,650 feet) away, and is designed to survive a hit from any form of laser technology.

      Gen. Nikolai Solovtsov, SMF commander, earlier said that Topol-M systems would be equipped with multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRV) in the next two or three years... "




      The Bottom Line:  The Cold War never ended... it just entered "Phase 2".






Tuesday, January 15th, 2008



Pakistan army guards scarce grain [supply]



      Pakistan (BBC) - "The authorities in Pakistan have deployed paramilitary troops to guard wheat supplies around the country amid fears of a massive shortfall.

      The government has blamed hoarders and smugglers for the problem.

      Wheat is a staple food in Pakistan and shortages have led to large scale rioting in the past.

      Flour shortfalls initially pushed up market prices. Later flour ran out on the open market when officials fixed prices and warned against violations.

      Now Pakistan's national disaster management authority has deployed thousands of paramilitary troops at wheat stores.

      The head of the authority said the aim was to ensure that store owners did not sell more than allowed by the government.

Price curbs

      The move comes after nearly a month of wheat shortages.

      President Pervez Musharraf said there was enough grain to feed everyone and the crisis had been engineered.

      He and other leaders have pointed the finger at "hoarders" and "profiteers".

      Officials accuse suppliers of smuggling wheat intended for domestic use to Afghanistan and Central Asia, where prices are higher.

      The state-run Utility Stores Corporation has been selling flour at the official rate of 18 rupees ($0.30) per kg.

      However, the BBC's M Ilyas Khan in Karachi says those queuing up outside are often told that the store has run out of stock..."


More:

Wheat Warning - New Rust Could Spread Like Wildfire

Soaring Grain Prices Prompt Wheat Thefts

China is quietly revaluing the yuan

This is not merely a subprime crisis

'Meltdown' Goes Mainstream

Movin' Up the Ranks

Citi likely to announce dividend cut, layoffs: report

Retailers brace for consumer slowdown in 2008

Sprint to lay off several thousand workers: report

Gold and platinum near historic highs

Dollar near 7-week low vs yen, bank earnings eyed

BofA's awesome Countrywide tax break

Countrywide rescue: $4 billion




      The Bottom Line:  Are the winds of the "perfect socio-economic storm" whipping up once more?




Norovirus reaches epidemic levels


      United Kingdom (timesonline.co.uk)  - "The winter vomiting bug norovirus has struck 2.8million people, with health professionals braced for another rise as people return to schools and offices.

      The virus - which causes projectile vomiting, diarrhoea, mild fevers and headaches - is striking down more than 200,000 a week, according to official estimates.

      Three hospitals have been placed on red alert, while hundreds of wards up and down the country have been closed to new patients as the number of beds being taken up by bug victims reaches critical levels.

      Schools have even begun sending warning letters to parents explaining the symptoms while employers are calling on staff to stay away from work 48 hours after they have recovered to stem the spread of the virus.

      The rate of new cases being confirmed has reached the levels of reports during the massive outbreak five years ago, when officials announced an epidemic.

      Norovirus can prove deadly for vulnerable people, such as children and the elderly. The impact of the bug has been exacerbated by a new outbreak of flu with those most at risk now being given antiviral drugs by their doctors.

      NHS Direct, which patients can telephone for health advice, has been inundated with people calling with symptoms of the norovirus.

      Helen Young, the clinical director, said: “We are seeing an increasing number of calls about diarrhoea and vomiting. Norovirus is a major issue for the whole NHS right now and we urge anyone who has symptoms to engage in good hygiene to prevent it spreading further and to drink plenty of fluids.”.."




      The Bottom Line:  Never let your guard down; if it's not one pathogen, it's another to be wary of.







20 inches of snow hits parts of New England


      PORTLAND, Maine (AP) -- "A snowstorm raced across northern New England Monday after burying parts of Massachusetts, dumping as much as 20 inches of snow in some places and forcing classes to be canceled at hundreds of schools.

      After the snowiest December on record in some parts of the region, and then a spell of spring-like warmth, meteorologists said between a foot and 20 inches fell in southern Maine. Roughly a foot fell in southern New Hampshire and areas west and north of Boston.

      A woman was killed and her child injured in a wreck on a snow-covered highway in Maine, authorities said. A man was killed when his vehicle crashed on a Vermont highway, but police did not say if it was weather-related.

      In New Hampshire, the southern and central parts of the state took the brunt of a storm as snowfall outpaced the state's fleet of plow trucks.

      Maine got pounded with some of the heaviest snowfall of the season: 20 inches in Gardiner, 16 inches in Denmark and 14 inches in Auburn, said Tom Berman of the National Weather Service in Gray.

      New Hampshire had similar amounts, ranging from 10 inches in Rochester to 13 inches in Wolfeboro.

      Pine Plains, New York, near the Connecticut state line, reported 7 inches, and Burlington, Connecticut, had 6.5 inches. The Boston, Massachusetts, area had about 5... "




      The Bottom Line:  Move along people, nothing to see here!  Global warming is to blame for everything.  Pay no attention to the white stuff in the background.






Monday, January 14th, 2008



Recession fears are growing



      WASHINGTON (Reuters) - "Expectations for the weakest consumer spending performance in 17 years during 2008 kept the odds of a recession at nearly 40 percent, a survey of top forecasters showed on Thursday.

      Panelists surveyed by the Blue Chip Economic Indicators newsletter have the odds of a recession in the next year at 38 percent, a little weaker than the 39 percent odds forecast a month ago.

      But the most recent survey was taken ahead of December's grim unemployment report and the newsletter stated that growth forecasts would have been weaker if taken after release of that data.

      "The January 4th news of the first decline in private sector nonfarm payrolls since July 2003 and whopping 0.3 of a percentage point jump in the unemployment rate during December no doubt caused some of our panelists to further trim their forecasts of economic growth this year and heightened speculation about the possibility of a recession," the newsletter stated.

      "Whether or not the economy is already in a recession, about to enter one, or manages to muddle through without one, will only be known in the fullness of time," the newsletter wrote.

      Based on the Jan 2-3 survey of economists -- taken a day ahead of the government's weak employment report that showed a huge uptick in the December unemployment rate and the weakest job growth in more than four years -- consumer spending this year is expected to grow at the weakest annual pace since 1991..."


More:

As housing slumps, realtors quit

Moody's: U.S. rating could be pressured in long term

Trends guru says you'll be living in a storage bin next year

'Panic Buying' in the Grain Markets

Dollar Falls Versus Euro in Third Week on Fed Outlook

Some Debt Trends Are Good.  This Isn't One of Them

It's Only the Beginning

Retail in a state of "anarchy" as consumers retreat

Retailers seen closing stores, paring growth

GM's Wagoner says economic woes concern

Bank results may drag stocks even lower

Gold hits record high near $900 on safe haven bids

U.S. recession worries hit crude prices

Here comes the earnings recession: James Saft

Economists Raise Odds for Possible U.S. Recession This Year

Odds are growing for economic recession




      The Bottom Line:  We are starting to see the dire effects of many of the triggers/causes we have identified in the recent past.




Israel's Netanyahu Claims President Bush Promised Unilateral Nuclear Bomb Attack Against Iran


      Tel Aviv (veteransforcommonsense.org)  - "Wire Services - US President George W. Bush promised Israel's opposition leader Binyamin Netanyahu that the United States will join the Jewish state in a nuclear strike against Iran, Israel Radio reported today.

      Former Prime Minister Netanyahu, opposition Likud party's hardline chairman who opposes the US-backed Annapolis peace process, reiterated to President Bush his stance, that a pre-emptive nuclear strike against Iran's nuclear installations was the only way to stop the Islamic nation's nuclear weapons ambitions.

      "I told him my position and Bush agreed," Netanyahu told Israel Radio.

      During their 45-minute meeting at King David hotel in Jerusalem Netanyahu also told Bush that "Jerusalem belongs to the Jewish people and will remain under Israeli sovereignty for eternity."

      President Bush issued a stark warning to Iran over Strait of Hormuz incident, saying that "all options are on the table to protect our assets."

      “There will be serious consequences if they attack our ships, pure and simple,” Bush said during the joint news conference with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert in Jerusalem. “And my advice to them is, don't do it.”

      Bush criticized those who interpret the National Intelligence Estimate, which found that Iran gave up its nuclear weapons program in 2003, as a sign that Iran was no longer a threat.

      "Let me remind you what the NIE actually said," Bush stold reporters. "It said that as far as the intelligence community could tell, at one time the Iranians had a military -- covert military program that was suspended in 2003 because of international pressure. My attitude is that a non-transparent country, a country which has yet to disclose what it was up to, can easily restart a program.".."



      The Bottom Line:  Aye Carumba.







Prepare for big flu pandemic economic hit, UN says


      LONDON (Reuters) - "Governments around the world need to do more to prepare for the dramatic economic impact of the next flu pandemic, the United Nations influenza coordinator said on Thursday.

      David Nabarro said his team had recently collected information from nearly 150 countries to see how prepared they were for a pandemic and the picture was mixed.

      "Most countries have now focused on pandemic as a potential cause of catastrophe and have done some planning. But the quality of the plans is patchy and too few of them pay attention to economic and social consequences," he told BBC radio.

      "The economic consequences could be up to $2 trillion -- up to 5 percent of global GDP removed," he said, reiterating previous World Bank and UN estimates.

      Nabarro will deliver a lecture at the London School of Economics later on Thursday on the global state of preparedness for any pandemic, which could be triggered by bird flu.

      The current H5N1 form of bird flu is mainly an animal disease, but experts fear it might mutate into a strain that could spread easily between people, causing a pandemic which could kill millions... "




      The Bottom Line:  Everything is connected.  Commerce, Health, Warfare, Social Structure - all connected.








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