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News Archives, January 28-31, 2008




Thursday, January 31st, 2008



Get uncomfortable, this could take a while: James Saft



      LONDON (Reuters) - "A housing market bubble of historic proportions is unwinding, raising the risk that the current period of poor economic growth in the United States could be measured in years not quarters.

      While the first problems emerged in subprime lending, it has become clear that housing is falling across geographies, price categories and borrower types.

      And with momentum now behind a fall, the implication is that the process will take a long time and destroy trillions of dollars of capital.

      "It is such a big crisis that it is of historic importance," Yale economist Robert Shiller said in an interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos last week.

      "It may represent a major turning point and we will see years of falling home prices and associated economic weakness."

      Shiller, the originator of the Case-Shiller index of U.S. house prices, said house prices could fall by as much or more than they did in the 1930s, when an extended fall took them down by 25 percent in nominal terms.

      They have fallen 6.7 percent in the year to November, according to the Case-Shiller measure..."


More:

The Trillion Dollar Secret

Fed Cuts Rates Boldly; Wall Street Wary

FGIC Loses AAA Rating at Fitch After Missing Deadline


      The Bottom Line:  The usual desperate moves that do nothing but buy time; the inevitable, however, has become ever apparent.






Wednesday, January 30th, 2008



Corporate America braced for recession



      New York (ft.com) - "Leading US companies are shifting into recession mode and preparing to cut costs, freeze hiring and reduce capital spending as they brace for an economic slowdown, senior executives and industry experts said.

      Their concerns are likely to be reinforced by the International Monetary Fund, which slashed its forecast for US growth and warned that no country would be completely immune from what it termed a “global slowdown”.

      Separately, a US study due out today shows that chief financial officers’ views of the economy are the most pessimistic in nearly four years.

      Business leaders say rising oil prices, sagging consumer confidence and the on-going credit crunch are prompting them to put in place contingency plans to protect against the expected economic downturn.

      “We have a number of levers we can pull in terms of capital and costs,” said Andrew Liveris, chief executive of Dow Chemical, which reported a halving in fourth-quarter earnings. “We have been buttoned down since July with a total clampdown on costs and capital expenditure.”

      Jim Owens, chief executive of Caterpillar, the world’s largest maker of construction equipment and a company regarded as a gauge of national economic health, last week warned of “anaemic growth in the US”.

      Multinationals are counting on growth in overseas demand and the weak dollar to offset domestic weakness.

      A leading US management consultant said that over the past few months, his firm had been “deluged” with calls from smaller, domestically-focused companies asking for advice on how to deal with a recession.

      “They all want to know what to cut and what to hold back if the economy hits the buffers,” he said.

      Chief financial officers polled by Financial Executives International, an association of financial executives, and The City University of New York’s Baruch College, reflected this negative mood about US economic prospects.

      In the last quarter of 2007, CFOs’ economic optimism touched its lowest level since June 2004, when the survey was first carried out, and recorded a 10 per cent fall over the previous three months..."



More:

Another One Bites The Dust

Foreclosure Filings Surged 75% In '07 as Subprime Mess Grew

Main Street's March towards Recession


      The Bottom Line:  Not looking like this will improve at all in the near future.








Winter Storms Hit Much of Country with Wind, Snow and Hail; 2 Dead in Indiana


      DENVER (Fox) —  "A powerful storm system pounded a large swath of the nation Tuesday, spawning everything from heavy snow and numbing cold to thunderstorms and possible tornadoes, and forecasters warned more bad weather was on the way.

      High winds associated with thunderstorms may have killed two people in Indiana, authorities said. Snow forced the closure of schools and highways in many areas, and avalanche warnings were issued for some Western mountainous regions.

      Authorities received phone text messages from at least two snowmobilers lost in the mountains west of Denver on Tuesday but weren't sure whether a third missing man was with them.

      Summit County sheriff's spokeswoman Paulette Horr said searchers believed they were closing in on the men's location but were having trouble deciphering the shorthand language used in the messages.

      "They're really close," Horr said.

      Efforts were delayed by bad weather and avalanche danger, Horr said.

      About 3 feet of snow has fallen in the area since Sunday morning, said Kyle Fredin of the National Weather Service. Snow began to taper off Tuesday, but up to a foot more was expected before the weekend, Fredin said..."




      The Bottom Line:  We're not out of the woods yet this winter.






Tuesday, January 29th, 2008



Economy woes batter global equities



      LONDON (Reuters) - "Persistent fears about the world economy battered global stocks again on Monday and drove investors towards safer assets despite expectations of more interest cuts from the Federal Reserve to bolster growth.

      Equity markets in Europe and Asia fell sharply with the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 down around 2 percent, taking January's losses alone to more than 13 percent.

      Japan's Nikkei .N225 early dropped nearly 4 percent on worries that the U.S. economy was already dragging Japan's down into recession.

      Wall Street also looked set for a poor start with stock index futures pointing at sharp early losses.

      "People remain pretty nervous. We haven't seen the full extent of the fall-out of subprime," said Jan Smedts, deputy head of equities for Dexia Group, referring to losses and turmoil in the U.S. mortgage sector.

      Monday's losses on equity markets came despite efforts last week by U.S. authorities to stop that country's economic downturn, which is exacerbated by subprime losses and credit market worries.

      It included an emergency 75 basis point Fed cut, a $150 billion fiscal stimulus plan from the White House and early discussions on how to bail out insurers whose underwriting of debt may yet trigger a new wave of losses.

      The Fed is also expected to cut interest rates again this week with interest rate futures showing the market betting on another 25 or 50 basis points in cuts, possibly taking rates as low as 3.0..."


More:

The black box economy

A bad market? You ain't seen nothin'

Gold, platinum hit record on supply, rate cut hopes


      The Bottom Line:  Will the descent downward be slow and gradual or acute and drastic?








China issues severe weather warning amid fuel shortage fears


      Beijing (breitbart.com) - "China issued a severe weather warning on Monday for large swathes of the country already reeling from transport havoc and power shortages caused by the heaviest snowfalls in decades.

      The forecast of further severe snowstorms came as hundreds of thousands of travellers remained stranded in airports, train stations, and on highways as they struggled to join their families for the Lunar New Year holiday.

      Even before the new weather warning, Premier Wen Jiabao called late Sunday for "urgent" action to combat blackouts and the mounting transport chaos caused by what has been described as the heaviest snow in China in half a century in places.

      At least a dozen people died at the weekend and thousands were injured in weather-related accidents, state media said, adding to scores of deaths in preceding weeks.

      The civil affairs ministry said Monday that 24 people died due to heavy snow in China since January 10, but the toll did not appear to include dozens reportedly killed in traffic accidents on icy roads during the period.

      There has also been an economic cost -- 22 billion yuan (3 billion dollars), said the official Xinhua news agency, without breaking down the figures.

      Wen ordered local governments to mobilise all resources to prevent further disasters, focusing special attention on ensuring distribution of energy supplies.

      "Due to the rain, snow and frost, plus increased winter use of coal and electricity and the peak travel season, the job of ensuring coal, electricity and oil supplies and adequate transportation has become quite severe," Wen said at a cabinet meeting.

      A government official said on Monday the country's stockpile of coal for electricity generation had dropped to 21 million tonnes, less than half normal levels at this time of year.

      Meanwhile, 17 provinces had taken power-rationing measures including deliberate blackouts in some areas, the official added, amid reports many power lines were knocked out by snow and frost.

      "More heavy snow is expected. All government departments must prepare for this increasingly grim situation and urgently take action," Wen said..."


More:

Snow slams China; half million stranded at train station

China's gov't urges conservation to ease winter power disruption



      The Bottom Line:  Desperate for fuel, food and resources, China will begin to look elsewhere to meet its insatiable needs.






Monday, January 28th, 2008



Stocks sag, haunted by economy worries



      SINGAPORE (Reuters) - "Shares in Asia fell on Monday, with Japan down around 2.5 percent and Hong Kong down more than 3 percent, as concerns over the health of the U.S. economy returned to haunt stock markets, sending investors to seek safe haven government bonds.

      The dollar dipped slightly against the euro as investors nervously jockeyed into position ahead of this week's Federal Reserve meeting, at which the bank is set to cut interest rates again, having slashed them in an emergency move last week.

      Oil drifted back down to $90 a barrel with traders saying Friday's $1.30 surge might have been overdone after Wall Street ended the week on a down note following two days of sharp gains. .N

      The market mood was calmer after last week's nerve-wracking rollercoaster, which saw global equity markets toppled by growing despair over the U.S. economy earlier in the week and then lifted by a $150 billion stimulus plan agreed by U.S. legislators and the White House.

      "The market appears to have hit bottom last week but it's still not in a position to keep rising, considering various events pending such as the Fed rate decision," said Koichi Ogawa, chief portfolio manager at Daiwa SB Investments in Tokyo..."



More:

Home Prices Fell in '07 for First Time in Decades

Central Bankers Confront A New Inflation Calculus

New Trend: "Intentional Foreclosure"


      The Bottom Line:  Desperation rears its ugly head - we ain't seen nothin' yet.








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