News
Archives, January 28-31, 2008
Thursday,
January 31st, 2008
- Get
uncomfortable, this could take a while: James Saft
LONDON
(Reuters) - "A housing market bubble of historic proportions
is unwinding, raising the risk that the current period of poor economic
growth in the United States could be measured in years not quarters.
While the first problems
emerged in subprime lending, it has become
clear that housing is falling across geographies, price categories and
borrower types.
And with momentum now
behind a fall, the implication is that the
process will take a long time and destroy trillions of dollars of
capital.
"It is such a big crisis
that it is of historic importance," Yale
economist Robert Shiller said in an interview at the World Economic
Forum in Davos last week.
"It may represent a major
turning point and we will see years of falling home prices and
associated economic weakness."
Shiller, the originator
of the Case-Shiller index of U.S. house
prices, said house prices could fall by as much or more than they did
in the 1930s, when an extended fall took them down by 25 percent in
nominal terms.
They
have fallen 6.7 percent in the year to November, according to the
Case-Shiller measure..."
More:
The
Trillion Dollar Secret
Fed Cuts
Rates Boldly; Wall Street Wary
FGIC
Loses AAA Rating at Fitch After Missing Deadline
The
Bottom Line: The usual desperate moves that do nothing but
buy time; the inevitable, however, has become ever apparent.
Wednesday,
January 30th, 2008
- Corporate
America braced for recession
New York (ft.com) -
"Leading US companies are shifting into recession mode and preparing
to cut costs, freeze hiring and reduce capital spending as they brace
for an economic slowdown, senior executives and industry experts said.
Their
concerns are likely to be reinforced by the International Monetary
Fund, which slashed its forecast for US growth and warned that no
country would be completely immune from what it termed a “global
slowdown”.
Separately, a US study due out today shows that chief financial
officers’ views of the economy are the most pessimistic in nearly four
years.
Business leaders say rising oil prices, sagging consumer
confidence and the on-going credit crunch are prompting them to put in
place contingency plans to protect against the expected economic
downturn.
“We have a number of levers we can pull in terms of capital and costs,”
said Andrew Liveris, chief executive of Dow Chemical,
which reported a halving in fourth-quarter earnings. “We have been
buttoned down since July with a total clampdown on costs and capital
expenditure.”
Jim Owens, chief executive of Caterpillar,
the world’s largest maker of construction equipment and a company
regarded as a gauge of national economic health, last week warned of
“anaemic growth in the US”.
Multinationals are counting on growth in overseas demand and the weak
dollar to offset domestic weakness.
A
leading US management consultant said that over the past few months,
his firm had been “deluged” with calls from smaller,
domestically-focused companies asking for advice on how to deal with a
recession.
“They all want to know what to cut and what to hold back if the economy
hits the buffers,” he said.
Chief
financial officers polled by Financial Executives International, an
association of financial executives, and The City University of New
York’s Baruch College, reflected this negative mood about US economic
prospects.
In the last quarter of 2007, CFOs’ economic optimism
touched its lowest level since June 2004, when the survey was first
carried out, and recorded a 10 per cent fall over the previous three
months..."
More:
Another
One Bites The Dust
Foreclosure
Filings Surged 75% In '07 as Subprime Mess Grew
Main
Street's March towards Recession
The
Bottom Line: Not looking like this will improve at all in
the near future.
- Winter
Storms Hit Much of Country with Wind, Snow and Hail; 2 Dead in Indiana
DENVER
(Fox) — "A powerful
storm system pounded a large swath of the nation Tuesday, spawning
everything from heavy snow and numbing cold to thunderstorms and
possible tornadoes, and forecasters warned more bad weather was on the
way.
High
winds associated with
thunderstorms may have killed two people in Indiana, authorities said.
Snow forced the closure of schools and highways in many areas, and
avalanche warnings were issued for some Western mountainous regions.
Authorities
received phone
text messages from at least two snowmobilers lost in the mountains west
of Denver on Tuesday but weren't sure whether a third missing man was
with them.
Summit
County sheriff's spokeswoman
Paulette Horr said searchers believed they were closing in on the men's
location but were having trouble deciphering the shorthand language
used in the messages.
"They're
really close," Horr said.
Efforts
were delayed by bad weather and avalanche danger, Horr said.
About
3 feet of snow has fallen in the area since Sunday morning, said Kyle
Fredin of the National Weather Service. Snow began to taper off
Tuesday, but up to a foot more was expected before the weekend, Fredin
said..."
The
Bottom Line: We're not out of the woods yet this winter.
Tuesday,
January 29th, 2008
- Economy
woes batter global equities
LONDON (Reuters) -
"Persistent fears about the world economy battered
global stocks again on Monday and drove investors towards safer assets
despite expectations of more interest cuts from the Federal Reserve to
bolster growth.
Equity markets in Europe and Asia fell sharply with the pan-European
FTSEurofirst 300 down around 2 percent, taking January's losses alone
to more than 13 percent.
Japan's Nikkei .N225 early dropped nearly 4 percent on worries that the
U.S. economy was already dragging Japan's down into recession.
Wall Street also looked set for a poor start with stock index futures
pointing at sharp early losses.
"People remain pretty nervous. We haven't seen the full extent of
the fall-out of subprime," said Jan Smedts, deputy head of equities for
Dexia Group, referring to losses and turmoil in the U.S. mortgage
sector.
Monday's losses on equity markets came despite efforts last week by
U.S. authorities to stop that country's economic downturn, which is
exacerbated by subprime losses and credit market worries.
It included an emergency 75 basis point Fed cut, a $150 billion
fiscal stimulus plan from the White House and early discussions on how
to bail out insurers whose underwriting of debt may yet trigger a new
wave of losses.
The Fed is also expected to
cut interest rates again this week with
interest rate futures showing the market betting on another 25 or 50
basis points in cuts, possibly taking rates as low as 3.0..."
More:
The
black box economy
A
bad market? You ain't seen nothin'
Gold,
platinum hit record on supply, rate cut hopes
The
Bottom Line: Will the descent downward be slow and gradual
or acute and drastic?
- China
issues severe weather warning amid fuel shortage fears
Beijing
(breitbart.com) - "China issued a severe weather warning on
Monday for large swathes of the country already reeling from transport
havoc and power shortages caused by the heaviest snowfalls in decades.
The forecast of further
severe snowstorms came as hundreds of thousands
of travellers remained stranded in airports, train stations, and on
highways as they struggled to join their families for the Lunar New
Year holiday.
Even before the new weather warning, Premier Wen
Jiabao called late Sunday for "urgent" action to combat blackouts and
the mounting transport chaos caused by what has been described as the
heaviest snow in China in half a century in places.
At least a
dozen people died at the weekend and thousands were injured in
weather-related accidents, state media said, adding to scores of deaths
in preceding weeks.
The civil affairs ministry said Monday that 24
people died due to heavy snow in China since January 10, but the toll
did not appear to include dozens reportedly killed in traffic accidents
on icy roads during the period.
There has also been an economic cost -- 22 billion
yuan (3 billion
dollars), said the official Xinhua news agency, without breaking down
the figures.
Wen ordered local governments to mobilise all
resources to prevent further disasters, focusing special attention on
ensuring distribution of energy supplies.
"Due to the rain, snow and frost, plus increased
winter use of coal and
electricity and the peak travel season, the job of ensuring coal,
electricity and oil supplies and adequate transportation has become
quite severe," Wen said at a cabinet meeting.
A government
official said on Monday the country's stockpile of coal for electricity
generation had dropped to 21 million tonnes, less than half normal
levels at this time of year.
Meanwhile, 17 provinces had taken
power-rationing measures including deliberate blackouts in some areas,
the official added, amid reports many power lines were knocked out by
snow and frost.
"More heavy snow is expected. All government
departments must prepare for this increasingly grim situation and
urgently take action," Wen said..."
More:
Snow
slams China; half million stranded at train station
China's
gov't urges conservation to ease winter power disruption
The
Bottom Line: Desperate for fuel, food and resources, China
will begin to look elsewhere to meet its insatiable needs.
Monday,
January 28th, 2008
- Stocks
sag, haunted by economy worries
SINGAPORE (Reuters) -
"Shares in Asia fell on Monday, with Japan down
around 2.5 percent and Hong Kong down more than 3 percent, as concerns
over the health of the U.S. economy returned to haunt stock markets,
sending investors to seek safe haven government bonds.
The dollar dipped slightly against the euro as investors nervously
jockeyed into position ahead of this week's Federal Reserve meeting, at
which the bank is set to cut interest rates again, having slashed them
in an emergency move last week.
Oil drifted back down to $90 a barrel with traders saying Friday's
$1.30 surge might have been overdone after Wall Street ended the week
on a down note following two days of sharp gains. .N
The market mood was calmer after last week's nerve-wracking
rollercoaster, which saw global equity markets toppled by growing
despair over the U.S. economy earlier in the week and then lifted by a
$150 billion stimulus plan agreed by U.S. legislators and the White
House.
"The market appears to have hit bottom last week but it's still not
in a position to keep rising, considering various events pending such
as the Fed rate decision," said Koichi Ogawa, chief portfolio manager
at Daiwa SB Investments in Tokyo..."
More:
Home
Prices Fell in '07 for First Time in Decades
Central
Bankers Confront A New Inflation Calculus
New
Trend: "Intentional Foreclosure"
The
Bottom Line: Desperation rears its ugly head - we ain't
seen nothin' yet.
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