News
Archives, March 10-14, 2008
Friday,
March 14th, 2008
- Carlyle
Capital in default, on brink of collapse
AMSTERDAM (Reuters) - "An affiliate
of U.S.-based buyout firm Carlyle
Group has defaulted on about $16.6 billion of debt and expects its
lenders to seize remaining assets as the global credit crunch tightens
around leveraged investors.
The Carlyle Group said in
a statement on Thursday that as Carlyle Capital Corp (CARC.AS: Quote,
Profile, Research),
a fund listed in Amsterdam, was unable to reach a deal with lenders it
expected those lenders to take possession of the fund's remaining
residential mortgage-backed securities assets.
Carlyle said it had
worked "exhaustively" to assist Carlyle Capital
and took "extraordinary measures" to help it through its liquidity
crisis.
It stressed that Carlyle
Capital Corp (CCC) was a separate legal and
business entity, and that it believed CCC would not have a measurable
impact on Carlyle's other funds, investments and portfolio companies.
Carlyle Group said that Carlyle Capital's defaults did not trigger
cross-defaults for any Carlyle borrowings.
The Carlyle Group, based
in Washington, DC, has more than $75
billion under management. One of the world's largest private equity
firms, it owns companies including TV ratings firm Nielsen, doughnut
seller Dunkin' Brands and former General Motors unit Allison
Transmission.
Carlyle Capital said in
New York late on Wednesday that talks with
lenders deteriorated after a decline in the value of its mortgage
investments, which it said would result in margin calls of $97.5
million on top of the $400 million it was already facing.
A "successful refinancing
is not possible," Carlyle Capital said,
after trying for the past week to work out a deal with lenders to stave
off bankruptcy.
The credit crisis, triggered last year
when subprime mortgages made
to risky U.S. borrowers went sour, has put increasing pressure on
lenders to tighten credit and made it difficult to value collateralized
debt, mortgage portfolios and other fixed-income securities -- the
investments that Carlyle Capital was set up to invest in..."
More:
Bear
Stearns stock plunges amid risk worries
Comment:
Dollar decline reshuffles deck of titans
Gold at
$1,000 on Weak Dollar, High Oil
Gold
prices hit $1,000 milestone
Global
Markets Tumble
Recession?
Maybe worse. Economy stumbles more
Dollar's
Clout Sinks Worldwide
'Magic
is over' for U.S., says French foreign minister
Scientists
warn of wheat disease
Billions
at risk from wheat super-blight
6
Signs the U.S. May Be Headed for War in Iran
Flu outbreak could put
big cities on lockdown
Two Weeks
Away from a Revolution
The
Bottom Line: Anyone else feel that? Is the sky
falling? What is that noise?
Thursday,
March 13th, 2008
- Banks
face "systemic margin call," $325 billion hit: JPM
NEW YORK (Reuters) - "Wall Street
banks are facing a "systemic margin
call" that may deplete banks of $325 billion of capital due to
deteriorating subprime U.S. mortgages, JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N:
Quote, Profile, Research), said in a report late on Friday.
JPMorgan, which sent a
default notice to Thornburg Mortgage Inc. (TMA.N: Quote, Profile,
Research)
after the lender missed a $28 million margin call, said more default
notices and margin calls were likely. The Carlyle Group's mortgage fund
also failed to meet $37 million in margin calls this week.
"A systemic credit crunch
is underway, driven primarily by bank
writedowns for subprime mortgages," according to the report co-authored
by analyst Christopher Flanagan. "We would characterize this situation
as a systemic margin call."
The credit crisis that
began about a year ago will likely intensify
after Friday's weak February U.S. employment report "that most
definitely signals recession," JPMorgan said.
Indeed, corporate bond
spreads widened to a new record on Friday,
surpassing levels seen in October 2002 during a boom in bankruptcies
following the dot-com crash. U.S. employers cut payrolls in February
for a second consecutive month, slashing 63,000 jobs, the biggest
monthly job decline in nearly five years, the U.S. Labor Department
reported on Friday.
"The weak February employment report
points to an economy in recession," JPMorgan said..."
More:
Fed
Doing In The Dollar
GO
Capital Halts Redemptions From Global Hedge Fund
Oil
crosses $110, despite supply rise
Drake's
rocky passage [the failing of another hedge fund]
Fear
returns as dollar falls and oil hits $110
Oil
holds near record above $110 on dollar slump
Dollar
sinks to record low vs euro, currency basket
Gold
nears record high on weak dollar and oil jump
New, colorful [Fiat] $5
bill to debut this week
Looks like funny money because it is funny money
The
Bottom Line: Looks like the Fed is running out of tricks,
since their repertoire seems to be mostly ineffective.
Wednesday,
March 12th, 2008
- 2008:
The year of global food crisis
India
(sundayherald.com) - "IT IS the new face of hunger. A perfect storm of
food scarcity,
global warming, rocketing oil prices and the world population explosion
is plunging humanity into the biggest crisis of the 21st century by
pushing up food prices and spreading hunger and poverty from rural
areas into cities.
Millions more of the world's most
vulnerable people are facing
starvation as food shortages loom and crop prices spiral ever upwards.
And for the first time in
history, say experts, the impact is spreading from the developing to
the developed world.
More than 73 million
people in 78 countries that depend on food
handouts from the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) are facing
reduced rations this year. The increasing scarcity of food is the
biggest crisis looming for the world'', according to WFP officials.
At the same time, the UN
Food and Agriculture Organisation has
warned that rising prices have triggered a food crisis in 36 countries,
all of which will need extra help. The threat of malnutrition is the
world's forgotten problem'', says the World Bank as it demands urgent
action.
The bank points out that
global food prices have risen by 75% since
2000, while wheat prices have increased by 200%. The cost of other
staples such as rice and soya bean have also hit record highs, while
corn is at its most expensive in 12 years.
The increasing cost of
grains is also pushing up the price of meat,
poultry, eggs and dairy products. And there is every likelihood prices
will continue their relentless rise, according to expert predictions by
the UN and developed countries.
High prices have already
prompted a string of food protests around
the world, with tortilla riots in Mexico, disputes over food rationing
in West Bengal and protests over grain prices in Senegal, Mauritania
and other parts of Africa. In Yemen, children have marched to highlight
their hunger, while in London last week hundreds of pig farmers
protested outside Downing Street.
If prices keep rising,
more and more people around the globe will be
unable to afford the food they need to stay alive, and without help
they will become desperate. More food riots will flare up, governments
will totter and millions could die.
Food scarcity means a big
increase in the number of people going
hungry,'' says the WFP's Greg Barrow. Without doubt, we are passing
through a difficult period for the world's hungry poor.''
The WFP estimates it needs an additional $500 million to keep feeding
the 73 million people in Africa, Asia and central America who require
its help. We need extra money by the middle of 2008 so we don't have to
reduce rations,'' says Barrow.
He also points out that
age-old patterns of famine are changing. "We
are feeding communities of people we didn't expect to feed," he
explains.
As well as being rural,
the profile of the new hungry poor is also
urban, which is new. There is food available in the markets and shops -
it's just that these people can't afford to buy it. This is the new
face of hunger.''
The food shortages will also affect western industrialised nations such
as Scotland, Barrow says. Scarcity means that some foods will get very
expensive, or disappear from supermarkets altogether, meaning a move to
seasonal, indigenous vegetables.''
Of the 36 countries named last month as currently facing a food crisis,
21 are in Africa. Lesotho and Swaziland have been afflicted by
droughts, Sierra Leone lacks widespread access to food markets because
of low incomes and high prices, and Ghana, Kenya and Chad among others
are enduring "severe localised food insecurity".
In India last year, more
than 25,000 farmers took their own lives,
driven to despair by grain shortages and farming debts. "The spectre of
food grain imports stares India in the face as agricultural growth
plunges to an all-time low," warns India Today magazine..."
More:
Who
knows there's a food crisis?
Crude
May Rise to $120 in Six Months, Taqa CEO Says
Derivatives
the new 'ticking bomb'
Dollar
dives as Fed rate cut eyed
Record
oil drives gas through the roof
Fed
pumps more money into financial markets
The
Bottom Line:
Are we reaching a "perfect storm" scenario where everything seems to go
critical at the same time? Recently, more and more signs point to
yes.
Tuesday,
March 11th, 2008
- US
Fed releases $200bn as credit crisis hits new depths
London
(business.timesonline.co.uk) - "The global credit crisis plunged to new
depths yesterday as persistent fears
over the collapse of a large financial institution caused funding
markets to
dry up and forced the US Federal Reserve to make available up to $200
billion (£99.3 billion) of emergency financing.
The Fed said that a “rapid
deterioration” in the credit markets in recent
days had prompted it to begin a series of fresh cash injections in an
effort
to shore up the balance sheets of America’s stricken banks.
Unemployment
also shot up in the US last month, adding to the gloom. US stocks
tumbled,
dragging the Dow Jones industrial average down 138.40 points to
11.902.00.
Treasury prices jumped and the dollar fell to record lows.
Bankers said that the moves underscored
the deepening severity of the crisis,
which was triggered last June by the collapse of the American sub-prime
mortgage market and has got progressively worse since. One senior
banker in
London said: “This is the beginning of the real credit crisis and it’s
not
going to end without a major casualty.”
Sources said that the present crisis was
triggered by cash-strapped banks
starting to get tough with their hedge fund clients by making margin
calls
on loans and drastically raising interest rate payments overnight. The
move
has pushed the funds into the panic-selling of assets, mostly AAA-rated
US
mortgage securities, and several are thought to be on the brink of
collapse.
One of them, Carlyle Capital Corporation (CCC), said yesterday that
overnight it had received “substantial additional margin calls” linked
to
its souring investments in US mortgages.
Thornburg, the US mortgage lender, exacerbated
investor jitters when it said
that it did not have enough cash to meet $610 million of margin calls.
Last
week Peloton, a London hedge fund, collapsed after it became unable to
meet
the banks’ demands.
Bankers said that the problem was related to a
perceived increased risk
surrounding the AAA-rated prime mortgages and to the consequences of
dangerous overleveraging of the funds themselves. In the case of
Carlyle,
its CCC fund had leveraged its assets by $30 for every $1 of its own
cash.
“The whole industry was created by cheap
debt,” the banking source said. “It
was really all just an illusion.”
Underlining the Fed’s desperate attempts to
calm markets, for the first time
it said that it would accept mortgage-backed assets as collateral from
the
banks for fresh loans. As the fear spread, the perceived risk of owning
US
corporate bonds - measured by the widening of credit spreads – also
rose to
its highest level..."
More:
'Doom
and Gloom' has just begun
Seeing
an End to the Good Times (Such as They Were)
Hedge
Funds Reel From Margin Calls Even on Treasuries
Gasoline's
price spike has only just begun
Goldman
says can't rule out Fed emergency rate cut
Lehman
cutting 5 pct of work force: source
Oil
steady near record above $108 on dollar
Countrywide
falls to 13-yr low on FBI probe reports
U.S.
economy seen shrinking in 1st half 2008: Blue Chip
The
Bottom Line: Sucks, don't it?
Monday,
March 10th, 2008
- Already
we have riots, hoarding, panic: the sign of things to come?
London
(timesonline.co.uk) - "The spectre of food shortages is casting a
shadow across the globe, causing
riots in Africa, consumer protests in Europe and panic in
food-importing
countries. In a world of increasing affluence, the hoarding of rice and
wheat has begun. The President of the Philippines made an unprecedented
call
last week to the Vietnamese Prime Minister, requesting that he promise
to
supply a quantity of rice.
The personal appeal by
Gloria Arroyo to Nguyen Tan Dung for a guarantee was a
highly unusual intervention and highlighted the Philippines’ dependence
on
food imports, rice in particular.
“This is a wake-up call,”
said Robert Zeigler, who heads the International
Rice Research Institute. “We have a crisis brewing in rice supply.”
Half of
the planet depends on rice but stocks are at their lowest since the
mid1970s
when Bangladesh suffered a terrible famine. Rice production will fall
this
year below the global consumption level of 430 million tonnes.
Street protests and
rioting in West Africa towards the end of last year were a
harbinger of bigger problems, the World Food Programme said. The global
information and early warning system of the Food and Agricultural
Organisation (FAO) has monitored outbreaks of rioting in Mexico,
Morocco,
Uzbekistan, Yemen, Guinea, Mauritania and Senegal. There have also been
protests in Jakarta, the Indonesian capital, over government price
increases.Population pressure and increased wealth are mainly to blame
for
the resurgence of food insecurity. More people are eating meat and
dairy
products in Asia, which increases the demand on the animal-feed
industry.
Milk powder prices rose from $2,000 to $4,800 per tonne last year as
rising
consumption of milk products in Asia coincided with shortages in the
Western
world. Drought in Australia has worsened the problem as have government
policies in Europe and America to increase the use of biofuels.
Mounting concern about
rice has prompted the Indian Government to restrict
exports of certain varieties. The measure triggered a surge in global
rice
prices, which have risen 50 per cent in a year, according to the FAO.
The
rice shortage is even felt in Britain where the price of basmati, the
biggest-selling variety, is rising rapidly.
Wheat is suffering even
greater pressures, with prices up 115 per cent in a
year. A succession of droughts in Australia has put upward pressure on
the
cost of a food commodity that is already in short supply. Stocks are at
a
40-year low and exports are being restricted from Beijing to Buenos
Aires.
Ukraine started closing its door to grain exports in June and Russia
set a
40 per cent export tariff on wheat in January.
Argentina has delayed the
reopening of its wheat export registry until April
to protect domestic supplies, and China, a net exporter of corn, rice
and
wheat last year, has imposed export quotas on grain in order to stem
runaway
food price inflation. A surge in its inflation index in December was
blamed
entirely on rising food prices, notably pork, which rose 48 per cent.
Farmers worldwide are worried about feed
costs. In Europe pig and
poultry
breeders are threatening to cut production unless they are paid higher
prices..."
More:
Citi Falls
on Worries About Cash Levels
Wall
Street to Citigroup: Come clean
With recession looming, be
prepared for a layoff
"It's
Really Quite Frightening"
Bernanke
Policy to 'Destroy' U.S. Dollar, Faber Says
Job
losses: Worst in 5 years
What
is to be done?
Crops
Worldwide Threatened by New Wheat Fungus
Wheat
fungus spreads out of Africa
A
Global Need for Grain That Farms Can't Fill
The
YELLOW BRICK ROAD TO ARMAGEDDON
Dollar
Falls to Record Against Euro as Economy Nears Recession
Nightmare
Scenario Building??
Derivative
Doodoo
Credit
derivatives turmoil strikes
Million
dollar foreclosures
Countrywide
reportedly under FBI investigation
FBI
starts criminal probe into Countrywide, reports NY Times
Gasoline
prices hit new high, seen jumping more
Stocks
drop as job data deepens economic woe
The
Bottom Line: It's a huge S#&@ sandwich, and we're all
going to have to take a bite.
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