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News Archives, November 11-17, 2007




Saturday, November 17th, 2007



The dollar's decline: from symbol of hegemony to shunned currency



      NEW YORK (news.independent.co.uk) - "The decline of the dollar, symbol of US global hegemony for the best part of a century, may have become so entrenched that some experts now fear it is irreversible.

      After months of huge and sustained turmoil on the money markets, lack of confidence in the world's totemic currency has become so widespread that an increasing number of international traders are transferring their wealth to stronger currencies such as the euro, which recently hit its highest level against the dollar.

      "An American businessman over here who is given the choice would take anything but the dollar," David Buik of Cantor Index said yesterday. "I would want to be paid in yen, and if not yen then the euro or sterling."

      Matthew Osborne, of Armstrong International, added: "The majority would say sterling. There are a few dealers in the City who may take the view that they'll take dollars now, while they're cheap, and hold on to them for 12 months.

      "But the problem is so serious that there are people who in July or August might have been thinking, 'I'm paid in dollars, how annoying' for whom it's now a question of, 'Do you have a job; do you have a bonus?' "

      The collapse of the sub-prime mortgage market in the US, which is fuelling the dollar unrest, has already brought down one British bank, Northern Rock, and has forced others to declare vast losses. Yesterday, just as it appeared that the dollar might have finally reached its floor, there was another warning that the sub-prime crisis is going to get worse. The US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, warned an international business summit in South Africa: "The sub-prime market, parts of it will get worse before it gets better." Huge numbers of US homeowners are still cushioned by introductory interest rates set when they took out loans in 2005 or 2006, he said. When these introductory offers run out, their interest payments will increase, setting off another wave of defaulting and repossessions. And the dollar is enduring its rockiest spell in recent memory.

      Kenneth Froot, a Harvard university professor and former consultant to the US Federal Reserve, warned yesterday: "Part of the depreciation [of the dollar] is permanent. There is no doubt that the dollar must sink against periphery currencies to reflect their increase in competitiveness and productivity."

      Professor Riordan Roett, of Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, told Bloomberg News: "There is a loss of confidence in the dollar and the US. It may only reflect the widespread dismay with the Bush administration, but it is obvious that the next administration, of either party, will have a steep uphill struggle." As well as reaching its lowest level against the euro, which has been trading at more than $1.47, the dollar has also fallen to its lowest level against the Canadian dollar since 1950, sterling since 1981, and the Swiss franc since 1995..."



More:

Liberty Dollar office raided

Mint Fears Losses From Penny Meltdown: Cindy Skrzycki

Heart of Foreclosure Darkness: Every County in Southern California is now Negative Year over Year



      The Bottom Line:  Big names are starting to get jumpy.






- Oil rises over $95 on weak dollar


      NEW YORK (Reuters) - "Oil rose 1.8 percent to above $95 a barrel on Friday as the dollar slipped and cold weather headed toward the giant U.S. Northeast heating oil market.

      Short covering ahead of the expiration of December U.S. crude futures also helped push prices higher, with oil settling up $1.67 at $95.10 a barrel. London Brent crude for January rose $1.39 to $91.62 a barrel.

      Oil has slipped from an all-time high of $98.62 a barrel struck last week on the back of winter supply concerns, the falling dollar and rising speculator investment.

      "All the issues that got there are still there," said Tom Bentz of BNP Paribas Commodity Futures Inc.

      The dollar broadly fell on reports showing the biggest drop in U.S. industrial production since January and poor foreign investment in U.S. assets in September.

      Prices fell on Thursday after U.S. government data showed a surprise 2.8 million build in crude inventories last week, easing supply concerns in the world's top consumer.

      Demand for heating oil in the U.S. Northeast is expected to rise as temperatures fall below normal, forecaster Meteorlogix said..."



      The Bottom Line:  It's going to be a rough road ahead
.






- Russia rejects arms treaty


      Moscow (hindustantimes.com) - "Russia's upper house of parliament voted unanimously to suspend a key Cold War-era arms control treaty on Friday, in a move that experts say reflects Moscow's growing anger over alleged Western moves toward military supremacy in Europe.

      The Federation Council, a Kremlin-appointed body, said that on Dec. 13 Russia will cease compliance with the 1990 Conventional Forces in Europe treaty, which fixed the numbers and geographical deployments of armoured vehicles, combat planes, troops and artillery between the then-Warsaw Pact and NATO across Europe.

      Russia has complained for years that the treaty became obsolete after the Warsaw Pact collapsed and many of its former members joined NATO, creating a vast superiority in all kinds of weapons for the Western alliance.

      "The current CFE Treaty suits the United States and NATO because it allows for the implementation NATO's strategy of eastward expansion without any limits," Yury Baluyevsky, chief of the Russian armed forces General Staff, told the Duma last week.

      While Russia ratified the treaty, most NATO states have yet to do so. Some former Warsaw Pact countries, including the ex-Soviet Baltic states, have been re-arming rapidly in recent years with Western-made weapons that are now aimed against Russia..."


More:

USA may introduce sanctions against Russia for its lucrative arms deals





      The Bottom Line:  Tensions rising further
.






Friday, November 16th, 2007



Subprime's paper trail proves to be an obstacle



      NEW YORK (Reuters) - "As banks work to clean up some of the subprime mortgage mess, they are finding new obstacles in unraveling the massive paper trail used to pool individual loans into mortgage-backed securities.

      A U.S. federal judge in Ohio threw out 14 foreclosure proceedings brought on behalf of Deutsche Bank AG (DBKGn.DE: Quote, Profile, Research) National Trust Company last month, saying the Trust had not proved it legally owned the mortgage loans when it filed the foreclosure proceedings.

      While some claim the proceedings were thrown out due to messy paperwork, others say the issue is widespread and could stall proceedings throughout the country.

      "The opinion from Ohio hopefully will help stop some foreclosures in their tracks," said April Charney, a legal aid attorney who represents troubled homeowners in Jacksonville, Florida. "You can't file a lawsuit in court saying you own something, when you don't actually own and hold it on the date that you file."

      In the opinion, Judge Christopher Boyko said he ordered the representative of the trust to produce an "assignment" showing it held the rights, titles and interest in the mortgages it was trying to foreclose.

      But the trust was unable to prove it legally owned the loans before it started the foreclosure proceedings, so Boyko concluded the trust did not have standing in the case, according to the opinion.

      "The institutions seem to adopt the attitude that since they have been doing this for so long, unchallenged, this practice equates with legal compliance," Boyko, wrote in the opinion, issued on Oct 31. "Finally put to the test, their weak legal arguments compel the Court to stop them at the gate."

      Industry lawyers said the assignment process can be costly when multiplied over tens of thousands of loans pooled into a security, so the legal paperwork transferring ownership from the original lender is not typically filed until a loan gets into trouble.

      "It's typically done as a matter of cost efficiency, since for some extremely high percentage of mortgages there will never be any foreclosure activity, there's no legal need for the assignments to be recorded until they need to be used," Deutsche Bank spokesman John Gallagher said on Thursday..."



More:

New era of defaults on horizon as CDO cuts mount

Shares fall on U.S. worries

Fixing foreclosure's ground zero

Foreclosures Hit a Snag for Lenders



      The Bottom Line:  Someone covered their tracks well and made out like bandits.






- Gas hitting record highs for holiday travel


       WASHINGTON (AP) -- "Gas prices near record highs at a time of year when they typically decline will not deter drivers from hitting the road this Thanksgiving, AAA said Thursday.

      The travel agency expects a record 38.7 million Americans will travel 50 miles or more from home over the five days beginning November 21. That is a 1.5 percent increase over last year. Roughly 80 percent of those trips will be by car, and motorists will pay about 90 cents a gallon more for gas than they did last year.

      Guy Caruso, chief of the Energy Department's statistical division, the Energy Information Administration, predicted Wednesday that gasoline prices, now averaging $3.11 a gallon nationwide, will rise another 10 cents by December.

      A jump of 15 cents a gallon from current levels, already well above last year's average of $2.23, also would surpass May's all-time record of $3.23 a gallon.

      Gas prices traditionally fall in the winter months as demand ebbs from summer highs, but oil prices flirting with $100 a barrel and low fuel stockpiles have reversed that trend this year. Still, demand for gasoline over the four weeks ending November 9 was 0.6 percent higher than a year earlier, averaging more than 9.3 million barrels a day, the Energy Department said Thursday.

      "This is the first time that we have seen gas prices tipping over $3 a gallon in November," Robert L. Darbelnet, president and chief executive of AAA, said in a statement. "But Thanksgiving is traditionally a time for family gatherings, and higher gas will not discourage Americans from reconnecting with their loved ones.".."




      The Bottom Line:  BOHICA
.






- Virulent form of cold virus worries experts


      WASHINGTON (Reuters) - "A new and virulent strain of adenovirus, which frequently causes the common cold, killed 10 people in parts of the United States earlier this year and put dozens into hospitals, U.S. health officials said on Thursday.

      A U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention report detailed cases of people ill in May of 2006 and from March to June of 2007 with a strain of the virus called adenovirus 14 in New York, Oregon, Washington state and Texas.

      "Whether you're a healthy young adult, an infant or an elderly person, this virus can cause severe respiratory disease at any age," said John Su, who investigates infectious diseases for the CDC and contributed to the report.

      "What makes this particular adenovirus a little different is that it has the capability of making healthy young adults severely ill. And that's unusual for an adenovirus, and that's why it's got our attention," Su said in a telephone interview.

      Two of the 10 people who died from the new strain were infants, Su said. The CDC report said about 140 people were sickened by the virus and more than 50 hospitalized, including 24 admitted to intensive care units.

      One of those who died was a 19-year-old female recruit at Lackland Air Force Base in Texas where other cases were found.

      "Adenoviruses are notorious for causing illnesses, particularly in military recruits," said Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

      A CDC spokesman said there was no evidence the virus was currently causing disease anywhere in the United States..."




      The Bottom Line:  This isn't really that bad...yet
.






Thursday, November 15th, 2007



Gold holds above $810 on dollar as eyes 28-year high



      SINGAPORE (Reuters) - "Gold extended gains on Thursday, buoyed by bargain hunting, higher oil prices and a fall in the U.S. dollar against the euro, and dealers expected buying to pick up after a correction below $800 an ounce.

      Spot gold rose to $817.50/818.25 an ounce from $814.20/815.00 late in New York on Wednesday, when it jumped 2 percent on a rebound in crude oil and a lower dollar.

      Japanese investors, who helped pull gold up from its lowest level in nearly two weeks at $790.80 on Tuesday, were still in the market, and dealers said buying by U.S. investors on New York's COMEX also spilled into the cash market.

      "If gold continues to stay above $800 in coming days, the market may try to test $850. It seems to be very choppy for the time being," said Ronald Leung, director of Lee Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong Kong.

      "People are rushing to buy a bit of gold after it comes back to $800 again. The next resistance may be $820 and $822," said Leung, adding that speculation the U.S. Federal Reserve would slash interest rates again in December also spurred buying.

      Gold rallied to $845.40 on November 7, its highest level since January 1980 when it hit a record high of $850, before investors booked profits. Sliding oil and a wave of risk aversion that hit equity and currencies also sparked sales in gold.

      The most-active December gold contract on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange gained $3.9 an ounce to $818.6 on electronic trade after rising 2 percent in New York.

      The key gold futures contract for October 2008 delivery on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange ended the morning session 44 yen per gram higher at 2,956 yen..."



More:

Credit crisis claims Cerberus, United Rentals deal

U.S. dollar to stay weak: World Bank Asia economist

US figures point towards slowdown

Foreclosure filings: No slowdown yet

Empty Houses Home to Crime As Loans Fail



      The Bottom Line:  Case and point.






- Pump price to jump 20 cents next 2-3 weeks: government


       WASHINGTON (Reuters) - "U.S. consumers could pay record gasoline prices for the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday with pump costs expected to climb another 20 cents over the next two to three weeks, the government's top energy forecaster warned on Monday.

      Guy Caruso, who heads the U.S. Energy Information Administration, said not all of the recent jump in crude oil prices has been reflected in motor fuel costs which now top $3 a gallon in many parts of the country, about 80 cents more than a year ago.

      "We haven't seen the full pass-through (of high oil prices) yet," Caruso told reporters at a briefing on oil market conditions held at Energy Department headquarters. "I would say what's in the pipe right now (for gasoline) is about another 20 cents."

      If the projected gasoline price materializes it would be the most consumers have ever paid to fill up at Thanksgiving and could break the all-time high of $3.22 a gallon set last May.

      The national average retail pump price has already jumped by 25 cents since mid-October, reflecting soaring crude oil costs, which for U.S. oil hit a record $98.62 a barrel last week.

      The price of crude accounts for about half the cost of making gasoline.

      So far, healthy gasoline imports from Europe and weaker driving demand for this time of the year has helped soften some of the price spike, Caruso said.

      Caruso said high prices are the result of strong global oil demand and tight supplies. "There's very little cushion in the market ... consumption outpacing production," he said. "We've seen steadily declining (oil) inventories."

      OPEC ministers are scheduled to meet in early December to review their oil policy. Karen Harbert, the assistant energy secretary for policy and international affairs, said the Bush administration has not received any messages from OPEC officials on whether the group will increase output.

      "We hope they will take action when it's necessary to ensure there is a much more calm and mutually beneficial (oil) marketplace," she told reporters at the same briefing.

      Caruso warned that if the group does not boost oil production levels, crude oil prices will stay "well above" $80 a barrel and push gasoline costs higher during next spring's busy driving season..."


More:

Chile earthquake sends copper up as oil near $94

Russia may deploy missiles in Belarus: general



      The Bottom Line:  And I wonder why that is
.






- Suffolk bird flu is H5N1 strain


       SUFFOLK (BBC) - "The type of bird flu found in turkeys on a Suffolk farm is the virulent H5N1 strain, according to government vets.

       The virus was discovered on Sunday at Redgrave Park Farm near Diss, where all 6,500 birds, most of them turkeys, are being slaughtered.

       A 3km protection zone and a 10km surveillance zone have been set up and the farm is co-operating with vets.

       Environment Secretary Hilary Benn said that there might be further undisclosed cases of the disease in the area.

       Mr Benn told the House of Commons: "I'm not going to speculate as to whether this outbreak is going to get larger.

       "What we're doing is working our darndest to make sure that it stays where it is.

       "The most important thing, having locked it down, is to trace the contacts and movements so we can take appropriate action."

       A national and a local disease control centre have been established in Bury St Edmunds, with text messages sent to all bird keepers nationwide - especially those in zones on the poultry register.

       Mr Benn said that movements within the restricted zones can take place, but not out of it. General licences for low risk movements out of the zone are expected to be available "shortly"..."



More:

Outbreak of lethal bird flu confirmed in Britain




      The Bottom Line:  Getting closer to North America
.






Tuesday, November 13th, 2007



Currency Controls Return as Central Banks Fight Gains



      New York (Bloomberg) -- "Central banks from Bogota to Mumbai are imposing foreign-exchange curbs to take control of their soaring currencies from traders dumping the dollar.

      In Colombia, international investors buying stocks and bonds must leave a 40 percent deposit at Banco de la Republica for six months. The Reserve Bank of India created a bureaucratic thicket to curb speculation by foreign money managers. The Bank of Korea is investigating trading of currency forward contracts to limit gains in the won, now at a 10-year high.

      Instead of using currency reserves or interest rates to influence foreign exchange markets, central banks and finance ministries are setting up obstacles to keep the falling dollar from threatening company profits and economic growth. The U.S. currency slumped 10 percent this year against its biggest trading partners, the steepest decline since 2003, while Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has reiterated that the U.S. supports a ``strong'' dollar.

      ``Central banks are struggling to find new ways to intervene against their currencies and some of the proposals simply can't work,'' said Mirza Baig, an analyst in Singapore at Deutsche Bank AG, the world's biggest currency trader. Some plans are ``truly bizarre,'' he wrote in a report.

      The U.S. hasn't attempted to stop the decline as the worst housing slump in 16 years forced the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. The dollar has weakened 19 percent against the Canadian currency this year to a record 90.58 cents, and fell 18 percent versus Brazil's real.

      The euro strengthened 1.2 percent last week and reached an all-time high of $1.4752 on Nov. 9. It traded at $1.4573 today as of 1 p.m. in London. The yen rose 3.6 percent last week, and it touched 109.15 per dollar today, the highest since May 2006.

`More Violent Correction'

      An index tracking the dollar against seven major trading partners dropped to 71.11 on Nov. 2, the lowest ever, a week after the Fed reduced its target rate for overnight loans between banks by a quarter-percentage point to an 18-month low of 4.5 percent.

      Stephen Jen, head of currency research at Morgan Stanley in London, said on Nov. 2 that the dollar's slide threatens to turn into a ``more violent correction'' that may require joint intervention by the U.S., European Union and Japan. The dollar will trade at $1.51 per euro by year-end, Jen said on Nov. 8.

      The extent of the dollar's slump reminds some traders of 1973, when former President Richard Nixon's Treasury Secretary John Connally abandoned the Gold standard while the U.S. was in recession and inflation exceeded 10 percent. The dollar lost 40 percent against the yen in the next five years.

      Since 2002, the U.S. currency has fallen 40 percent against the Canadian dollar, 33 percent versus the euro and weakened 24 percent compared with the British pound..."



More:

Gold eyes all-time high on currency crisis

Talk of Worst Recession Since the 1930's

Losing streak continues for Wall St.

Wall Street playing with more funny money

Home prices to keep sliding with no bottom in sight



      The Bottom Line:  Further along the downward spiral.






- Navy Lacks Plan to Defend Against 'Sizzler' Missile


      WASHINGTON (Bloomberg) -- "The U.S. Navy, after nearly six years of warnings from Pentagon testers, still lacks a plan for defending aircraft carriers against a supersonic Russian-built missile, according to current and former officials and Defense Department documents.

      The missile, known in the West as the ``Sizzler,'' has been deployed by China and may be purchased by Iran. Deputy Secretary of Defense Gordon England has given the Navy until April 29 to explain how it will counter the missile, according to a Pentagon budget document.

      The Defense Department's weapons-testing office judges the threat so serious that its director, Charles McQueary, warned the Pentagon's chief weapons-buyer in a memo that he would move to stall production of multibillion-dollar ship and missile programs until the issue was addressed.

      ``This is a carrier-destroying weapon,'' said Orville Hanson, who evaluated weapons systems for 38 years with the Navy. ``That's its purpose.''

      ``Take out the carriers'' and China ``can walk into Taiwan,'' he said. China bought the missiles in 2002 along with eight diesel submarines designed to fire it, according to Office of Naval Intelligence spokesman Robert Althage.

      A Pentagon official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Russia also offered the missile to Iran, although there's no evidence a sale has gone through. In Iranian hands, the Sizzler could challenge the ability of the U.S. Navy to keep open the Strait of Hormuz, through which an estimated 25 percent of the world's oil traffic flows.

Fast and Low-Flying

      ``This is a very low-flying, fast missile,'' said retired Rear Admiral Eric McVadon, a former U.S. naval attache in Beijing. ``It won't be visible until it's quite close. By the time you detect it to the time it hits you is very short. You'd want to know your capabilities to handle this sort of missile.''

      The Navy's ship-borne Aegis system, deployed on cruisers and destroyers starting in the early 1980s, is designed to protect aircraft-carrier battle groups from missile attacks. But current and former officials say the Navy has no assurance Aegis, built by Lockheed Martin Corp., is capable of detecting, tracking and intercepting the Sizzler.

      ``This was an issue when I walked in the door in 2001,'' Thomas Christie, the Defense Department's top weapons-testing official from mid-2001 to early 2005, said in an interview..."




      The Bottom Line:  Uh oh
.






Monday, November 12th, 2007



Wall Street braces for more trouble



      NEW YORK (AP) -- "The stock market this week is hoping for signs that the economy is surviving the problems in the financial sector -- and that the Federal Reserve will come to the rescue if it's not.

      Investors are slowly getting a clearer picture of how much in risky and deteriorating debt securities the world's major financial institutions are holding, and they don't like what they see.

      Wall Street already expects banks' portfolios to lose at least $20 billion in the fourth quarter, after announcements of anticipated writedowns of mortgage-backed securities and other debt instruments by such financial institutions as Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Wachovia.

      Investors have been bracing for fourth-quarter writedowns for a while, but the amount was larger than many were prepared to hear. As a result, volatility has returned to virtually all corners of Wall Street.

Coming to Wall Street - a $10B hit

      After huge swings in either direction, the Dow Jones industrial average finished last week down 4.06 percent, and the Standard & Poor's ended down 3.71 percent.

      The Nasdaq composite index was hit the hardest last week, as investors' optimism vanished about the technology sector being isolated from the slowing economy and problems in the financial markets. The Nasdaq ended the week down 6.49 percent.

      Meanwhile, gold lifted further above $800 an ounce to its highest levels since 1980, and crude-oil briefly breached $98 a barrel, as the dollar plunged.

      The combination of shaky financial markets and inflationary triggers has worried investors that the Fed's hands are tied. An interest rate cut could send the dollar down even further, but keeping rates where they are might translate to even wider losses for the world's major financial institutions..."



More:

Citi's giant write-downs: What did it know, and when did it know it?

Greedy Enough to Make You Sick

Is the Market Finally Waking Up?

Bankruptcy Law Backfires as Foreclosures Offset Gains



      The Bottom Line:  Greed is blinding and very motivating; Fear usually clears one's vision and is far more driving a force.






- US right to bear arms may get its day in court


      WASHINGTON (AFP) — "For the first time in 70 years, the US Supreme Court may decide next week whether to examine the question of the right to bear arms, something which is fiercely upheld by millions of Americans.

      The US capital of Washington, which is trying to stem a wave of violence in its seedier neighborhoods, has lodged a case with the nine Supreme Court judges seeking to maintain its three-decade ban on individuals carrying handguns.

      The judges were due to have an initial discussion on Friday, and their decision on whether or not to examine the question could be announced as early as Tuesday.

      The case goes right to the heart of the American constitution, which in its second amendment declares that: "A well regulated militia, being necessary to the security of a free state, the right of the people to keep and bear arms, shall not be infringed."

      Washington, which is also home to the president and the government, has interpreted the amendment to mean that there is a collective right to bear arms for those who are part of a police force or a security force.

      But since 1976, it has banned residents from carrying handguns, although they are allowed to keep a rifle or hunting gun in their homes, providing it is locked and not loaded.

      For millions of Americans though, and especially the powerful gun lobby represented by the National Rifle Association, the second amendment guarantees the right of every American citizen to own any gun, with few limits.

      In 2003, Washington resident Dick Heller, who lives in one of the city's tougher districts, lodged a suit against the local authorities saying his constitutional right to bear arms was being violated. Although his case was initially rejected, he won on appeal to a federal appeals court in March.

      Washington officials in turn then lodged a case with the Supreme Court in September insisting that it must rule on the extent of access to handguns, the weapon of choice in two-thirds of robberies and assaults.

      Handguns are also used in half of the 15,000 murders across the country every year, according to statistics from the Federal Bureau of Investigations.

      "Faced with the evidence that handguns pose a particularly serious threat to public safety, the council chose to ban handguns because it concluded that less restrictive regulations would be ineffective," the city said in its petition to the court.

      "Whatever right the second amendment guarantees, it does not require the district to stand by while its citizens die."

      If the court decides to examine the case, it would likely be heard sometime between February and April, with a ruling before the end of June, just a few months before the November 2008 presidential elections.

      To date the Supreme Court has rarely considered the issue of the right to bear arms.

      In the 19th century, it determined that the founding fathers meant the amendment to remain the remit of federal laws and left all the states in the union free to draw up their own gun laws.

      Then in 1939, the court upheld a law requiring that arms transported from state to state should be registered.

      But all states have formulated their own restrictions, which vary wildly.

      Heller believes that the laws in Washington, which are similar to those in many big cities such as Chicago, New York or Detroit, are not just unconstitutional but also ineffective.

      Last year in the city with 580,000 residents, there were 169 murders, 137 by firearms.

      "This case presents the court a unique opportunity to correct a persistent misconception that the people do not actually enjoy a right that is specifically enumerated in the constitution," Heller says in his petition.

      "'The people' -- individuals in our country -- retain the right to keep and bear arms."

      His case is being backed by the American Civil Rights Union which says in his support: "This case presents questions of the highest importance, involving the fundamental meaning of the second amendment.

      "In over 200 years, this court has still not resolved the basic questions regarding the amendment's meaning.".."


More:

Supreme Court could take guns case




     
The Bottom Line:  Anyone who studies history knows this is an individual and basic human right.  Out of the mouths and letters of Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Paine, Samuel Adams, George Washington, Albert Gallatin, James Madison, Richard Henry Lee, George Mason, Tench Coxe, Patrick Henry, and many other founding fathers (including those who drafted the Bill of Rights/2nd Amendment) all clearly state the "People" as being comprised of Individual American Citizens.

      Don't believe me?  Check this page out (It's VERY tongue-in-cheek).  Rational thought, statistical referencing and logical reasoning put into a humorous package makes these 40 points of subtle yet sarcastic argument easy to swallow.

      Here is what a few of our Founding Fathers had to say on thie issue:

"The whole of the Bill (of Rights) is a declaration of the right of the people at large or considered as individuals.... It establishes some rights of the individual as unalienable and which consequently, no majority has a right to deprive them of." (Albert Gallatin of the New York Historical Society, October 7, 1789)

"No Free man shall ever be debarred the use of arms." (Thomas Jefferson, Proposal Virginia Constitution, 1 T. Jefferson Papers, 334,[C.J.Boyd, Ed., 1950])

"The right of the people to keep and bear...arms shall not be infringed. A well regulated militia, composed of the body of the people, trained to arms, is the best and most natural defense of a free country..." (James Madison, I Annals of Congress 434 [June 8, 1789])

"A militia, when properly formed, are in fact the people themselves...and include all men capable of bearing arms." (Richard Henry Lee, Additional Letters from the Federal Farmer (1788) at 169)

"...to disarm the people - that was the best and most effectual way to enslave them." (George Mason, 3 Elliot, Debates at 380)

"Americans have the right and advantage of being armed - unlike the citizens of other countries whose governments are afraid to trust the people with arms." (James Madison, The Federalist Papers #46 at 243-244)

"the ultimate authority ... resides in the people alone," (James Madison, author of the Bill of Rights, in Federalist Paper #46.)


      If you don't think it's an individual, Constitutional and basic human right after reading all that, well then you're a moron.






- The uninvited guest: Chinese sub pops up in middle of U.S. Navy exercise, leaving military chiefs red-faced


      United Kingdom (dailymail.co.uk) - " When the U.S. Navy deploys a battle fleet on exercises, it takes the security of its aircraft carriers very seriously indeed.

      At least a dozen warships provide a physical guard while the technical wizardry of the world's only military superpower offers an invisible shield to detect and deter any intruders.

      That is the theory. Or, rather, was the theory.

      American military chiefs have been left dumbstruck by an undetected Chinese submarine popping up at the heart of a recent Pacific exercise and close to the vast U.S.S. Kitty Hawk - a 1,000ft supercarrier with 4,500 personnel on board.

      By the time it surfaced the 160ft Song Class diesel-electric attack submarine is understood to have sailed within viable range for launching torpedoes or missiles at the carrier.

      According to senior Nato officials the incident caused consternation in the U.S. Navy.

      The Americans had no idea China's fast-growing submarine fleet had reached such a level of sophistication, or that it posed such a threat.

      One Nato figure said the effect was "as big a shock as the Russians launching Sputnik" - a reference to the Soviet Union's first orbiting satellite in 1957 which marked the start of the space age.

      The incident, which took place in the ocean between southern Japan and Taiwan, is a major embarrassment for the Pentagon.

      The lone Chinese vessel slipped past at least a dozen other American warships which were supposed to protect the carrier from hostile aircraft or submarines.

      And the rest of the costly defensive screen, which usually includes at least two U.S. submarines, was also apparently unable to detect it.

      According to the Nato source, the encounter has forced a serious re-think of American and Nato naval strategy as commanders reconsider the level of threat from potentially hostile Chinese submarines.

      It also led to tense diplomatic exchanges, with shaken American diplomats demanding to know why the submarine was "shadowing" the U.S. fleet while Beijing pleaded ignorance and dismissed the affair as coincidence.

      Analysts believe Beijing was sending a message to America and the West demonstrating its rapidly-growing military capability to threaten foreign powers which try to interfere in its "backyard".

      The People's Liberation Army Navy's submarine fleet includes at least two nuclear-missile launching vessels.

      Its 13 Song Class submarines are extremely quiet and difficult to detect when running on electric motors.

      Commodore Stephen Saunders, editor of Jane's Fighting Ships, and a former Royal Navy anti-submarine specialist, said the U.S. had paid relatively little attention to this form of warfare since the end of the Cold War.

      He said: "It was certainly a wake-up call for the Americans.".."





      The Bottom Line:  The Dragon has grown large indeed these past few decades.







Sunday, November 11th, 2007



Credit Card Debt a $915 Billion Disaster-in-Waiting for Banks



      New York (newsmax.com) - "Think the estimated subprime debt load carried by the big international banks is big, at $1 trillion?

      How about this: Americans now owe nearly as much – a record $915 billion – on their credit cards alone.

      And defaults and delinquencies in the credit card sector are piling up – which means big banks are on the hook, again. More sand in the gears for the global economy.

      Credit card companies wrote off 4.58 percent in payments between January and May, almost a third more than in the same period in 2006, according to Moody's Investors Service. As a result, lenders such as Citigroup, Bank of America, and American Express, among others already reeling from the subprime mortgage disaster, are being further weakened.

      Not to mention the staggering U.S. economy, which is so dependent on a vigorous consumer credit sector to keep it healthy. Seventy-two percent of the U.S. economy rides on consumption alone.

      Third quarter numbers for banks were the worst since 2001. First Citigroup took a 57 percent hit in earnings. The decline was attributed, in large part, to consumer-credit problems. Anticipating additional defaults, they stashed away $2.24 billion in loan-loss reserves.

      Other major banks also took a beating and are also preparing for the expected credit card delinquencies and defaults.

      American Express added 44 percent to its U.S. card division loss reserves. Bank of America, Capital One and Washington Mutual are all expecting at least another 20 percent in credit card losses over the next two to four quarters.

      An increase in credit card balances and first-time cash advances were cited by Citi Chief Financial Officer Gary Crittenden as indicators of possible trouble to come. The change in loan losses was "inherent in the [Citigroup] portfolio but not yet visible in delinquencies," Crittenden told Fortune magazine.

      An increase in bankruptcies is a major contributor to credit card defaults, according to Jay Eisbruck, managing director of Moody's Asset-Backed Finance Group.

      Falling home prices and rising gasoline costs also add to bankruptcy woes. U.S. home prices fell 3.2 percent in the second quarter, the sharpest decline since 1987, according to Standard & Poor's.

      As home prices fall, homeowners have a harder time getting cash by refinancing high-rate mortgages. The high cost of gas, often purchased with credit cards, doesn't help either..."



More:

So Much For Being Hedged

Banks' Balance Sheets Will Hit Fan In January



      The Bottom Line:  It's gone from bad to worse.






- Yellowstone Is Rising on Swollen "Supervolcano"


      Yellowstone National Park (National Geographic) - "Yellowstone National Park is rising. Its central region, called the Yellowstone caldera, has been moving upward since mid-2004 at a rate of up to three inches (seven centimeters) a year—more than three times faster than has ever been measured.

      The surface is inflating like a bellows due to an infusion of magma about 6 miles (10 kilometers) underground, according to a new study published in tomorrow's issue of the journal Science.

      But that doesn't mean Yellowstone is about to go the way of Mount St. Helens.

      "There's no evidence of an imminent eruption or hydrothermal explosion," said Robert Smith, a geophysics professor at the University of Utah who co-authored the study.

"Supervolcano" Under Yellowstone

      Yellowstone is situated on a giant, geologically active feature known as a supervolcano.

      "It's hundreds of times bigger than Mount St. Helens," Smith said, referring to the active volcano in Washington State.

      Much of the park sits in a caldera, or crater, some 40 miles (70 kilometers) across, which formed when the cone of the massive volcano collapsed in a titanic eruption 640,000 years ago.

      The supervolcano has produced three similarly large blasts in the past two million years, with 30 smaller eruptions since the caldera formed.

      The volcano's most recent flare-up was 70,000 years ago, and volcanic heat continues to fuel the park's famous geysers and hot springs..."


More:

Indonesian Volcano Roaring to Life




      The Bottom Line:  Will we be choking up volcanic ash in the near future?






- Worst Drought in a Century Hurting Australian Farmers


      Wakool, Australia (National Geographic) - "November on Rod Chalmers' farm in Wakool, Australia, shouldn't look like this. It's springtime, and the wheat fields should be green and waist-high instead of mostly dead.

      There are no sheep are in sight either. The animals were sold long ago, because there is no grass for them to graze on.

      Chalmers is among many farmers whose crops are withering in an unusual spring heat, following one of the warmest and driest winters on record.

      In the seventh year of a crippling drought, much of Australia is in an unprecedented water crisis. The Big Dry, as Australians have dubbed the weather, is the worst in a century and has forced water restrictions on an entire nation. (Related: "New Australia Mining Boom Taking Toll on Outback Life" [September 26, 2007].)

      But for the farmers, the consequences have been especially dire. (See photos of drought-affected farms.)

      With 65 percent of the Australia's viable land declared in drought by the government, thousands have walked away from their farms in recent years. Those that stayed saw earnings dive an average of 70 percent last year because of drought-related losses.

      In Wakool, located 495 miles (797 kilometers) southwest of the capital, Sydney, the number of dairy farms has dwindled from 16 to 5.

      Chalmers took a hit of $200,000 Australian (about $187,000 U.S.) last year. As he heads into summer, 75 percent of the grain crop has already failed, and he is expecting to lose money again this year.

      "Its hard to figure out whether we are going to be okay or not," Chalmers said. "We're trying to figure out now at what point the debt becomes unmanageable."

Dried-Up Rivers

      Rain—and a lot of it—is the only thing that is going to turn things around for troubled farmers..."





      The Bottom Line:  Droughts in Southeastern and central North America and large parts of Australia; two of the world's bread-baskets, does not bode well for the global food supply.









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