Total assets also declined to $1.25 billion from $1.4 billion a year ago. A key reason for the decline was a $45 million decrease in outstanding commercial loans and a $23 million drop in residential construction loans, executives said.

      First Mariner has stopped issuing ‘‘Alt-A” mortgages — loans falling between prime and high-risk subprime quality — through its wholesale lending division, said CEO Edwin F. Hale Sr. The company has also decided to close its wholesale lending operation and taken steps to modify underwriting guidelines and strengthen borrower qualification terms.

      The bank will slow its development of new branches and ‘‘eliminate any poor-performing locations,” Hale said. Some job cuts are expected, mostly through attrition, he said.

      ‘‘Despite the challenges arising from wholesale mortgage lending, we are seeing strong performance in our reverse mortgage lending, consumer finance and investment brokerage platforms,” Hale said.

      Provident Bankshares Corp. of Baltimore saw residential mortgage loans decline by $92 million, or 23 percent, in its second quarter from a year ago. Unlike First Mariner, however, Provident still showed a profit. But the $15.5 million in net income was down 22.5 percent from a year ago.

      Home equity, commercial real estate and commercial business loans all increased for the quarter.

      Home foreclosures continued to increase in September across Maryland from a year ago, according to Irvine, Calif., data company RealtyTrac. Last month, the state had about 2,800 foreclosure filings, a rise of 393 percent from September 2006.

      The Bottom Line:  All of the little cracks are starting to merge together into larger, more disheartening fissures in our entire infrastructure.

      NEW YORK (Reuters) - "Oil hit a record above $84 a barrel on Friday on mounting tensions between Turkey and northern Iraq and lingering supply concerns ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter.

      U.S. crude settled up 61 cents at $83.69 a barrel, after trading up to a record $84.05 a barrel earlier. London Brent crude climbed 40 cents to $80.55 a barrel.

      Though oil prices have quadrupled since 2002, when adjusted for inflation the price is still below the $90-a-barrel peaks at the time of the Iranian revolution in 1979.

      Prices jumped after the Kurdistan Workers Party said it would move back into Turkey from northern Iraq and target the Turkish government, highlighting tensions in a region that pumps a third of the world's oil.

      Iraq's oil exports through Turkey have been virtually idle since the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in March 2003 due to sabotage attacks, and most of Iraq's oil is exported from the country's south.

      The rising tensions added to worries of a supply crunch during the Northern Hemisphere winter after declines in U.S. and European fuel inventories.

      The latest snapshot of oil supplies in top consumer the United States showed a 1.7 million barrel fall in crude oil stocks last week to the lowest level since January..."

      MOSCOW (Reuters) - "The United States and Russia failed to settle their differences on U.S. plans to place a missile defense shield in Europe on Friday, and Washington rejected a request from Moscow to freeze the project.

      U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, after talks in Moscow, also clashed publicly on how to tackle Iran's nuclear ambitions. Lavrov called Washington's tough stance unhelpful.

      The talks took place against a backdrop of growing friction between the West and an increasingly assertive Russia seeking to restore its military might that has echoes of the Cold War.

      Rice and U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates brought new proposals they said were intended to soothe concerns the missile shield threatened Russian security.

      The suggestions included the idea that Russia and America could have liaison officers stationed at each other's missile defense facilities as part of a broader joint effort to protect against missile attacks, U.S. officials said.

      But Lavrov, speaking at a news conference with Rice, Gates and Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov after five hours of talks, said those proposals needed more study and Washington should halt work on the shield in the meantime.

      "We believe that to make the joint work of Russian and U.S. experts most effective, plans on deploying ... (the missile defense system in Europe) should be frozen," Lavrov said.

      Winnipeg (winnipegfreepress.com) - "AT the beginning of the summer, the National Farmers' Union of Canada put out a press release that included the headline Global food crisis emerging.

      The release is scary reading. Based on early predictions by the United States Department of Agriculture on world grain supply and demand for the 2007-08 crop year, the NFU's director of research, Darrin Qualman, broadcasts a dire warning that "we are in the opening phase of an intensifying food shortage."

      Qualman means a worldwide shortage.

      As the world went into the Northern Hemisphere's summer, total grain supplies were the lowest in the 47 periods for which data exists and were quite possibly at their lowest levels in a century. This crop season would mark the seventh year out of the past eight in which global grain production fell short of demand.

      "The world is consistently failing to produce as much grain as it uses," Qualman said.

      Despite the so-called "green revolution," the miracle of fertilizers, irrigation techniques, and disease-resistant grains, the world, once again is in danger of not feeding itself. There are all kinds of reasons for this: population growth, climate change, a shift to feeding livestock instead of using grain directly for food, which is a less efficient way of feeding people, and growing demand for ethanol.

      There are no easy solutions and there are other potential problems. The collapse of cod supplies is well-known, but many edible fish species are also in danger. Qualman says one-third of ocean fisheries are already in collapse and scientific journals estimate that two-thirds may be in collapse by 2025.

      Climate change may exacerbate grain shortages. Global warming has been largely associated with drier conditions in grain-growing areas, but that is far from universal. Some areas in North America have been having unusually wet weather in spring -- ideal conditions for scab, or head blight. Scab hit Nebraska wheat fields this year. The Broad Institute, a research body supported by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Harvard and affiliated hospitals warns that head blight "is becoming a threat to the world's food supply."

      The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations reported earlier this year that a new and virulent fungus of wheat-stem rust had spread from East Africa to Yemen. Some 80 per cent of wheat varieties in Africa and Asia are susceptible to the disease.

      Crop diseases are nothing new. The Irish potato famine was caused by disease. The Bible is replete with stories of famine and the need to store grains.

      Modern techniques have led to disease-resistant strains. Most strains of wheat rust in North America, for example, have been combatted by cultivation of resistant strains. Agriculturists, however, stress the need for cultivation of many varieties of all crops. A single strain is always vulnerable to a new, mutated form of any crop disease. The Irish potato famine was a result of over-reliance on one variety.

      The world's food supplies may not be as robust as they were 20 years ago, nonetheless, we are not all about to starve. Famine, for the next little while at least, is going to affect others -- the poorer nations of the Earth -- not us.

      It won't come to the West first, but that there's still every reason to be concerned. The warning signs are very real and much like climate change, the potential food shortage is a result of the way we consume and live our lives.

      It's also an example of how solving one problem tends to produce another. The production of ethanol reduces dependence on oil, but diverts grains from the food supply, thereby assisting in one shortage but threatening another.

      For the world's food supply, it would be better if we all ate less meat and got our proteins in a different way, but we are as used to our diet as we are to driving cars and taking airplanes and we are now using grain to do so. Having had the benefit, in the West, of eating what we want, it is hard now to deny developing countries the same, just as it is difficult to argue against their increasing use of fossil fuels when the West has caused the great majority of the greenhouse-gas effect so far.

      The prospect of climate change has now gained widespread acceptance, although the response is less clear. The building danger of food shortages, however, as production plateaus and the world population continues to increase is less well appreciated and almost totally without political action.

      Qualman of the NFU is not a scaremonger. He's telling it as it is. So here's a prediction: Food is the next big global news story and just like climate change it will generate huge controversy.

      The problem can be ignored, but it won't go away..."

      The next bomb from this chain reaction of bailouts and blowups will be credit-card debt. Hardly anybody is talking about it yet, but banks and consumers are laying the ground for a wave of credit-card defaults, bankruptcies and asset write-offs for 2009 or so.

      Regulators and investors have discouraged excessive mortgage lending, so banks are turning to credit cards as the next growth business. They're starting to raise credit limits, lower lending standards and increase recruitment. And now that they can't borrow against homes so easily, consumers are borrowing more against plastic - even to meet higher, adjustable mortgage obligations that they can't handle from their income.

      This can end only one way. The only question is how bad it will be.

      The percentage of banks tightening credit-card lending standards is hovering near its lowest levels in a decade, according to a Federal Reserve survey.

      Junk-mail credit-card solicitations jumped late last year, although they're still below the levels of 2005, according to the Tower Group, a financial services research firm. But more importantly, the percentage of people responding to credit-card come-ons has risen steadily and nearly tripled since mid-2005.

      "It doesn't mean that banks are giving the store away, but they've eased their lending standards to be able to grab [market] share" in credit cards, says Dennis C. Moroney, a senior analyst at Tower.

      Increasing market share is often banker-ese for "making lots of loans that won't get paid back."

      Here's Countrywide Financial boss Angelo Mozilo talking to Wall Street analysts three years ago: "We have a strong focus on growing market share and have set a very ambitious goal of attaining 30 percent market share by 2008." These days, thanks to the dud mortgages Countrywide issued, it has a strong focus on trying to avoid bankruptcy.

      When mortgages and home-equity loans were all the rage, consumers had no need to crank up credit-card balances and bank salesmen had no need to push plastic.

      But cards are now the bank growth product and consumer lender of last resort. Some households are almost certainly meeting mortgage obligations by borrowing against their credit cards, although it's impossible to tell how many, says banking analyst Bert Ely of Ely & Co. Millions of mortgages issued at low, teaser rates will reset over the next two years, adding to pressure on household finances.

      "I wonder how many people are out there right now getting new credit cards and just preparing for that day," says Ely.

      As growth in home equity balances has fallen almost to zero, credit-card balances have increased at a 17 percent annual rate over the past six months, according to a report by Merrill Lynch economist David Rosenberg. And the trend, he writes, "is clearly accelerating." A year ago card balances were shrinking.

      Card defaults are up, too. They are nowhere near the levels reached after the tech-stock meltdown and the 2001 terrorist attacks, but they will grow. The average American has seven credit cards in his wallet. Americans owe more than $500 billion on cards already. Household debt levels and debt payments are near all-time highs. And the economy is in danger of entering recession.

      If banks are swallowing hard before issuing asset-backed mortgage loans these days, should they really be increasing unsecured card debt to the same people? Especially since credit-card interest can be three times as high as mortgage rates and isn't tax-deductible?

      No - but the Fed is creating money, regulators eyes' are off the ball and the dough will flow along the line of least resistance.

      I'm not saying credit-card pain will be as bad as previous financial blowups. I'm not even saying the Fed shouldn't lay on some lubrication.

      I am saying to expect a new chapter in the chain reaction of bubbles that began 10 years ago. The Fed cut rates to fix the emerging-markets stock collapse in 1997 and 1998, and we got the Nasdaq craze. It cut rates to fix the Nasdaq crash and we got the housing bubble. Now it's cutting rates to fix the housing slump.

      Easy card deals will soon be everywhere you want to be. It may be good news for retailers temporarily. But look out below..."

      The Bottom Line:  All of the little cracks are starting to merge together into larger, more disheartening fissures in our entire infrastructure.

      NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- "Oil prices jumped almost $2 a barrel Thursday, and neared a new record high, following a surprise drop in U.S. crude inventories, a strike at Chevron's operations in Nigeria and a fire at BP's Alaska oil field.

      U.S. light crude for November delivery rose $1.78 to settle at $83.08 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil reached $83.67 during the day in electronic trade, coming within 23 cents of the all-time trading high of $83.90 set September 20.

      In its weekly inventory report, delayed by a day due to the Monday holiday, the Energy Information Administration said crude stocks fell by 1.7 million barrels last week. Analysts were looking for a gain of 1 million barrels, according to a Dow Jones poll.

      Distillates, used to make heating oil and diesel fuel, declined by 600,000 barrels, in line with estimates. 

      But gasoline supplies, expected to drop by 300,000 barrels, actually rose by 1.7 million barrels. And gasoline demand, which usually shows an average annual growth of about 1.5 percent, was running about 0.4 percent below last year.

      "It's a pretty neutral report," said Peter Beutel, an oil analyst at the consultancy Cameron Hanover. "But a neutral report gives people the chance to focus on what they want, and the fact that the market came down on the bullish side is a pretty bullish sign."

      Beutel said we could see a new record high in the next few days, especially if the dollar falls or the Nigerian strike gets worse.

      Oil prices are now near their all-time trading high set last month as the dollar fell, storms threatened production in the Gulf of Mexico and fears over a subprime-induced recession subsided.

      A number of events brought oil prices nearly to new records Thursday.

      MOSCOW (BBC) - "President Vladimir Putin's decision to suspend Russia's participation in the Conventional Forces in Europe, or CFE, treaty is a potent political signal.

      It is yet another sign of the worsening relationship between Moscow and the West.

      It shows that this relationship was not improved in any substantial way by the informal meeting at the start of this month between the US and Russian presidents at the Bush family's holiday home at Kennebunkport in Maine.

      It is another diplomatic warning shot from Mr Putin across the bows of the Bush administration.

      And with crucial issues like Iran's nuclear programme and the political future of Kosovo looming at the United Nations, it raises a new set of questions about how far Russia might go to block initiatives backed by Washington and its key allies.

      The Russians have been threatening to suspend their participation in the CFE treaty for several months.

      An emergency meeting in mid-June to discuss the issue made little if any progress.

      The CFE treaty of 1990 was one of the most significant arms control agreements of the Cold War years.

      It set strict limits on the number of offensive weapons - tanks, aircraft, artillery and so on - that the members of the Warsaw Pact and Nato could deploy in a broadly-defined Europe, stretching from the Atlantic to the Urals.

      In the wake of the collapse of communism, the treaty was revised in 1999, in part to address Russian concerns.

      This revised treaty has never been ratified by the Nato countries who first want Russia to withdraw all of its forces from the former Soviet Republics of Georgia and Moldova. Now Russia's patience has run out.

      President Putin's decree to suspend application of the treaty is not the same as a full-scale withdrawal - that would require a formal notification of the other parties.

      This suspension is a unilateral Russian measure and its practical impact will be limited.

      LONDON (Reuters) - "The automated teller for home loans is empty and Americans are relying increasingly on credit cards to pay their living costs, indicating tough hurdles ahead for U.S. consumer spending and markets.

      Federal Reserve data released on Friday showed U.S. consumer borrowing rising by $12.18 billion in August, more than 20 percent more than economists had forecast.

      Most striking was an 8.1 percent increase in borrowing on revolving credit lines, mostly credit cards, to a record $909 billion.

      Credit card borrowings rose at the sharpest rate since early 2002.

      So what was it that persuaded consumers to rack up more debt during the month?

      Was it the increasing press coverage, no doubt reinforced by friends and family, that their houses were worth less than a month or a year ago?

      Or was it the near meltdown in financial and credit markets that prompted a surge in speculation about an upcoming recession?

      The Bottom Line:  When commodities start hitting the main-stream for investors, shortages are just around the corner.  Everything else falls victim to circumstance.

      SINGAPORE (Reuters) - "Oil prices firmed on Thursday, extending gains above $81 as dealers braced for a possible decline in U.S. winter fuel stocks and factored in a disruption in crude production in Alaska.

      U.S. crude rose 16 cents to $81.46 a barrel by 0147 GMT, after gaining more than $1.04 on Wednesday. London Brent crude rose 19 cents to $78.79.

      Oil is hovering near its highest in two weeks, with heating oil futures leading recent gains as traders grow worried that global oil inventories may be insufficient to meet heating fuel demand in the coming northern hemisphere winter.

      U.S. weekly oil inventory data due out later in the day Thursday are expected to show a 400,000-barrel decline in distillate stocks, which includes heating fuel. European oil inventories fell in September, data showed this week.

      Crude inventories are expected to have risen by 900,000 barrels while gasoline stocks edge up by 100,000 barrels.

      Renewed U.S. dollar weakness added to the latest gains. The dollar slipped again on Wednesday, weighed down by expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will have to cut interest rates again this year to help recharge the U.S. economy.

      It steadied on Thursday, but remains near an all-time low against the euro, a factor that has spurred buying in dollar-denominated commodities markets as a hedge.

      "The weakening of the U.S. dollar is continuing to attract funds into energy and commodities," said Jim Ritterbusch president at Ritterbusch and Associates..."

      AUSTRALIA (Fox) - "The 24-year-old man, believed to have been attempting to harm himself, was brought to Mackay Base Hospital in north Queensland, Australia, two months ago.

      Pascal Gelperowicz, who led the man's treatment with Todd Fraser, said the man was unconscious when he arrived and was treated immediately with pharmaceutical-grade alcohol, which works as an antidote to the poison.

      The hospital's alcohol supplies were soon exhausted, however, so they purchased a case of vodka to help finish the job. "We ... decided the next best way to get alcohol into the man's system was by feeding him spirits through a naso-gastric tube," Gelperowicz said.

      The man was fed about three standard drinks an hour for three days while in intensive care. The patient has made a full recovery..."

      WASHINGTON (MSNBC) - "A growing number of people say the economy is the nation's top problem, with the less educated among the most worried, an Associated Press-Ipsos poll showed Tuesday.

      Yet even with a credit crunch and soft housing market, economic angst remains well behind war and domestic issues among the public's chief concerns, according to survey results.

      Given an open-ended opportunity to name the major problem facing the U.S., 15 percent volunteered the economy. That was six percentage points more than named it when the AP-Ipsos poll last asked the question in July.

      "They talk about a big surge in Iraq; well, there hasn't been a big surge over here," said Sadruddin El-Amin, 55, a truck driver in Hanahan, S.C., who named the economy as the top problem. "The job market isn't getting any better, not for the working class."

      Twenty-two percent of those with a high school education or less named the economy as the country's worst problem, compared to eight percent with college degrees. In addition, 20 percent of minorities cited the economy as the top issue, compared to nine percent who did so in July. There was no real difference between Republicans and Democrats, with just under a fifth of each naming the economy as biggest worry.

      Foreign affairs was considered the top problem by 42 percent, down from 49 percent in July.

      Within that category, concern over the Iraq war and other conflicts was named most frequently — by 30 percent — and showed little change since the summer, while fewer people chose immigration as the top issue. Democrats were nearly twice as likely as Republicans to mention war as the primary concern.

      Domestic issues were named by 33 percent in this month's poll, about the same as the 29 percent who cited them in July. That included eight percent who named morality as the major problem, up from two percent in the earlier survey.

      The poll was taken Oct. 1-3 and involved telephone interviews with 499 adults. It had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points..."

      The Bottom Line:  The evidence is overwhelming, and to ignore the facts now would be your greatest folly.

      BEIJING, China (CNN) -- "As Typhoon Krosa barreled toward eastern China over the weekend, every level of the Chinese government was whipped into action, evacuating 1.4 million people from the two coastal provinces on which Krosa set its sights.

      Krosa stormed across Taiwan, reportedly killing five people, before hammering Zhejiang and Fujian provinces with ferocious winds, rain, flooding and general devastation. Roads were blocked with debris, residents were left without power, businesses closed, schools shut down -- but there were no official reports of deaths in China.

      Analysts and observers said China's ability to move hundreds of thousands of people out of harm's way speaks to the country's exceptional ability to mobilize resources and people to deal with disasters.

      "We do a decent job in responding to earthquakes," said a Chinese official, requesting anonymity. "We do a better job in dealing with natural disasters that we can anticipate, like typhoons. We can often avoid or minimize deaths if not destruction."

      WASHINGTON (MSNBC) - "The U.S. government should replace more than 1,000 irradiation machines used in hospitals and research facilities because terrorists could use the radioactive materials inside to make a “dirty” bomb, a government advisory panel has concluded.

      “Any one of these 1,000-plus sources could shut down 25 square kilometers, anywhere in the United States, for 40-plus years,” according to panel documents obtained by The Associated Press.

      The machines are in relatively unprotected locations such as hospitals and research facilities all over the country, and may be a tempting source of radioactive materials for terrorists who want bombs that explode and disperse radioactive debris over a large area, rendering it uninhabitable, the board found.

      The irradiators contain Cesium-137, one of the most dangerous and long-lasting radioactive materials. They are used for radiation therapy and to sterilize blood and food.

      Swapping the Cesium irradiators for X-ray machines or irradiators that use other materials would cost about $200 million over five years, but it would take the most accessible source of dangerous radioactive material inside the United States “off the table” for terrorists, the panel says.

      The recommendation is part of an as-yet-unreleased report that describes how unfriendly nations or terrorist groups could undermine the computers and satellites the U.S. military relies on and attack the United States with radiological or biological weapons or blackmail the U.S. government with a threat of a nuclear detonation, all while manipulating world opinion against the United States in the media and on the Internet.

      The report comes from the Defense Science Board, a panel of retired military and CIA officials and defense industry experts who offer the Pentagon possible solutions to actual and potential national security problems. It is expected to be released later this year..."

      QUEEN CREEK, Ariz. (MSNBC)  - "Out on Phoenix’s suburban fringes, where cement mixers are fast colonizing hay and cotton fields, the day is winding to a close. The home hour has arrived.

      But sundown gives away a troubling secret: Behind dark windows and unanswered doors, it’s clear nobody is coming home.

      The ranch home on Via del Palo where the newspaper in the driveway has been sitting unclaimed since April. The house at the corner of 223rd Court with faded fliers stuck in the door.

      They’re empty, left behind by a rising tide of foreclosures.

      This neighborhood has a still-unfolding story to tell. It’s not always a comfortable one to hear.

      Not long ago, builders were raising home prices here thousands of dollars week after week. Families camped out for lotteries to win the right to buy. Buyers gambled with loans whose risks were obscured by euphoria.

      This is the tale of how America’s real estate boom came to a seemingly ordinary subdivision called the Villages at Queen Creek, where the whipsaw of easy credit has led to some extraordinary times. They were the best of times, for a while. The empty homes, though, raise serious doubts about what comes next.

      As the nation confronts skyrocketing foreclosures, what is happening here and in scores of similar neighborhoods is worth considering.

      Because while the pressures at work in Queen Creek were extreme, the choices people made — and the consequences — are not so different from those faced by thousands of other homeowners and their neighbors.

      “Honestly,” says Joy Kessler, standing on the doorstep of the house she and her husband are surrendering to foreclosure, “if you were in this situation, what would you do?”

Optimistic outlook — at first

      In 2004, Dave Gustafson and his family headed to Arizona to visit relatives. The buzz of construction convinced them to have a look around.

      Back in California, they had less than 1,100 square feet. But salesmen here offered 2½ times the space for half the price.

      The place they liked the best was the Villages, a warren of streets cradling a golf course, quickly filling with sand-colored, stucco homes.

      “The sales person was saying that they (homes) were going up $1,000 a week,” Dave Gustafson recalls. “So ... we signed right away.”

      Builders made it easy. A downpayment of $2,000 to $5,000 was all it took. Buyers could borrow at low teaser rates, requiring payments of nothing more than interest.

      As promised, prices were going up faster than the houses themselves.

      By the time the family’s new home was completed, the $179,000 base price had climbed to $220,000.

      The Gustafsons opted for Corian counters, a pool and whirlpool, adding more than $50,000 to their loan. Payments were fixed for only two years, but they didn’t worry. With prices rising, they’d refinance. In five or six years, the Gustafsons figured, they’d sell for $500,000.

      They were hardly the only ones feeling optimistic.

      Kris Rowberry, ecstatic when the value of his home in nearby Gilbert took off, bought a second one in the Villages as an investment.

      “I was thinking, man, if I could have 10 properties, I could just kind of retire ... and kick back and live off the income,” he says.

      But the speculative mind-set confounded retiree David Pickering, who’d never even heard of interest-only loans. The Pickerings were simply buying a place to live.

      The Bottom Line:  The ripples from all of this will eventually affect us all in one way or another.

      NEW YORK (isecureonline.com) -

"Alarming Predictions Signal a New Energy Crisis: Iran's army surrounds U.S. troops in Iraq...Russia's army invades a southern neighbor...Immigrants flood America's southern border in unprecedented numbers...Oil soars to $150 a barrel - and beyond.

Those are just some of the events in store as a Rogues' Gallery of world leaders scrambles for ever-dwindling oil resources. But you can join an elite circle of investors protecting themselves now...They've already pocketed gains of 135%...181%...250%...and more!

Dear Informed American:

      I have an urgent warning about something you've probably never read about in the newspaper or seen on TV.

      But government leaders around the world, from Washington to Moscow to Tehran, are keenly aware of it...preparing for it...bracing for the earth-shaking consequences.

      This crisis will do more to shape our lives in the coming years than the war on terrorism or the war in Iraq...In fact, this will probably alter the direction of both of those wars...and launch some new ones.

      And it could easily send the price of oil to $150 a barrel...and beyond.

What is this crisis I'm talking about?

• It's a crisis that could send a flood of refugees from Mexico into the United States - a flood so huge, it might well push a U.S. militia group into armed conflict all along our southern border

• It's a crisis that could push Russia to invade a country that's in line to join the NATO alliance - while America and the rest of the NATO countries can do nothing except stand by and watch

• It's a crisis that could lead one of America's closest allies to betray a partnership going back decades. (In fact, there's overwhelming evidence this is already happening)

• And...most urgently...it's a crisis that could send Iran's army flooding across its western border into Iraq - leaving tens of thousands of American forces trapped and helpless.

      And at the heart of all these disturbing developments is a worldwide scramble for oil resources.

      That's why I call this coming crisis the New Energy Crisis.

      You might recall the original energy crisis of the 1970s...when Arab oil producers launched an embargo against the West. Americans lined up for blocks just to fill up at the gas station - if the gas station had any gas to sell.

      The New Energy Crisis will be much more serious...with many more far-reaching consequences.

      But as alarming as the New Energy Crisis is shaping up to be, I also want you to know there are critical steps you can take right now to protect your wealth...even grow your wealth...during these turbulent times just around the corner. I'll walk you through these steps, to a place of safety, in just a short while.

      First, though, it's essential you know about the men who are setting the New Energy Crisis into motion. It's a real Rogues' Gallery of world leaders...some of them American allies...some of them sworn enemies...all of them bent on achieving energy security...and all of them about to light a match to volatile tinderbox regions around the world - even America's own backyard!.."

      "This comes at a time of unprecedented concerns globally of very low grain stocks. It is not beyond the realms of possibility that we will see a food shock in the next few years," said Mr Anderson. "We talk about oil shocks. We have gone on assuming that the supermarket shelves will always be loaded … this affects everyone from the farmers right through to those people who are dependent on countries like Australia to feed them."

      It's a neat analogy. In the 1970s there was stagflation and oil shocks; in the 21st century, agflation and food shocks. Nor is it confined to Australia. "Bread leads the big food price hike" was the headline in London's Sunday Times earlier this month, detailing the doubling of grain prices and the flow-on from that: more expensive bread, pasta, noodles, barley and, because animal feed is grain-based, more expensive meat.

      The Independent was even more bearish, headlining "The fight for the world's food": "Population is growing. Supply is falling. Prices are rising. What will be the cost to the planet's poorest?"

      With agflation, economists are blaming the rocketing economies of India and China on the demand side; on the supply side, drought in the world's breadbaskets — possibly driven by climate change — and diversion of grain into biofuels in the United States are the main culprits. "As these two forces combine they are setting off warning bells around the world," said The Independent. "It has even revived discussion of the work of the 18th-century British thinker Robert Malthus. He predicted the growth of the world's population would outstrip its ability to produce food, leading to mass starvation."

      Terry Sheales, from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, said all grain-producing countries — Australia, Canada, the US and Europe — had suffered drought, cutting output. At the same time importers, such as Egypt, had placed early orders, spiking demand.

      "The wheat situation is very serious, as you can see from how prices have escalated. They're about 30 per cent higher compared to last year," said Dr Sheales. "Stocks at the start of the year were pretty low, around 117 million tonnes, (and) overall the expectation is that stocks will be run down further.".."

      The Bottom Line:  Sooner or later the Chinese will dump everything related to the U.S. Dollar.  It will be troublesome to them, but catastrophic to us.

      TEHRAN (Reuters) - "Negotiations over Iran's nuclear enrichment activities would be meaningless because the country has a legal right to pursue the technology, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was quoted as saying on Sunday.

      The West suspects Tehran is developing its nuclear program to produce atomic weapons but Iran says it is only pursuing a means to produce electricity for civilian needs.

      Tehran has defied U.N. resolutions calling on it to suspend uranium enrichment, and on Sunday Ahmadinejad rejected the idea of holding talks on the issue.

      "It is meaningless to hold talks over Iran's obvious and legal right to nuclear technology," the news agency ISNA quoted him as saying.

      The United States severed relations with Tehran's after its 1979 Islamic revolution which toppled the U.S.-backed Shah.

      Washington also accuses Shi'ite Muslim Iran of providing funds, arms and training to Iraqi Shi'ite militants and of supporting terrorism. Iran denies the charge, blaming the U.S.-led invasion in 2003 for the bloodshed in Iraq.

      On Wednesday, President George W. Bush said Washington had made it clear to Iran that negotiations were possible if it shut down the program, although last month Bush's top diplomat Condoleezza Rice said she did not expect any talks soon.

      Ahmadinejad said Iran was not seeking dialogue.