News
Archives, September 1-8, 2007
Saturday, September 8th, 2007
- Dollar hits 15-year low
NEW YORK (Reuters) - "The dollar slid
to a 15-year low against major
currencies on Friday as data showed U.S. payrolls fell last month for
the first time in four years, raising recession fears and pressure for
the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
Traders dumped the dollar
after the government said the U.S economy
shed 4,000 net jobs last month, the first contraction in employment
since August 2003. It also revised downward estimated job gains for
June and July.
The payrolls data
followed a larger-than-expected decline in July
pending home sales reported earlier this week -- more evidence that a
credit crunch that began with losses on bonds tied to risky U.S.
mortgages was starting to put the brakes on growth.
"The jobs data is simply
horrific and fans the most pessimistic
fears," said Marc Chandler, chief global currency strategist with Brown
Brothers Harriman in New York. "The housing market woes will undermine
the U.S. consumer, push the U.S. economy into recession and drag down
growth in much of the rest of the world."
Traders have been
increasing their bets that the Fed will cut its
5.25 percent benchmark interest rate by a half percentage point when it
meets on September 18.
"The Fed cannot keep
ignoring the fact that the subprime and credit
crisis has indeed hit the real economy," said Kathy Lien, senior
currency strategist at DailyFX.com in New York.
"Americans are feeling
the pain, and this will translate into weak
consumer spending, which will drive speculation for a possible
recession," she said.
The dollar index (.DXY:
Quote, Profile, Research), which measures the greenback against a
basket of major currencies, tumbled to a 15-year low.
The low-yielding yen was the biggest
beneficiary, at one point
rising almost 2 percent as investors fled risky trades funded by
borrowing the Japanese currency at low interest rates. The dollar last
traded at 113.48 yen..."
More:
Countrywide
plans to slash up to 12,000 jobs
Stocks
slammed on jobs report
Stocks
slide after jobs data
Slowdown
to cut profit as big caps look to shine
Payrolls
post first decline in 4 years
Countrywide
to cut up to 12,000 jobs
Firt
credit, now recession worries hit LBO's
Greenspan
points to market 'fear'
The
Bottom Line: Stick a fork in us, we're done.
- Oil up as tight U.S. supply
counters economic woes
NEW YORK
(Reuters) - "Oil prices rose on Friday as tight supplies in
the United States countered worries about a possible economic recession
in the world's top energy consumer.
U.S. crude settled up 40
cents at $76.70 per barrel, after falling
as low as $75.63 earlier. London Brent crude settled 30 cents higher at
$75.07 a barrel.
The price of oil has
climbed close to the all-time record $78.77 a
barrel struck on August 1 amid refinery problems in the United States,
Middle East tensions and output cuts by the Organization of Petroleum
Exporting Countries.
But the rally has been
tempered by economic troubles that analysts fear could undermine future
demand for oil.
U.S. employers cut
payrolls by 4,000 jobs in August, the first
reduction in four years, compared with economists' forecasts for an
increase of 110,000 jobs. The data sent the dollar and world stock
markets tumbling.
"This may be the canary
in the coal mine as far as demand (is
concerned) going forward," said John Kilduff, senior vice president at
MF Global.
"Certainly, in the past
years with high oil prices we've always
pointed to employment numbers holding up as a reason oil demand was not
being hit."
Oil prices rose Thursday
after a U.S. government report showed U.S.
crude inventories fell by a higher-than-expected 3.9 million barrels
last week.
Gasoline stocks fell 1.5 million barrels to the lowest level in two
years, due to a series of outages in the aging U.S. refining system and
strong summer demand..."
The
Bottom Line: Dig deep in that wallet of yours to feed the
insatiable apetite of that hungry beast known as your automobile!
- NASA "Clean Rooms" Brimming With
Bacteria
Houston (National
Geographic) - "The seemingly spic-and-span rooms where NASA assembles
its spacecraft
aren't quite as clean as experts had thought, a new study suggests. A
surprising diversity of bacteria thrive in at least three of the
space agency's so-called clean rooms, genetic testing has revealed.
NASA experts go to great
lengths to keep these rooms immaculate by
sealing them from the outside environment, continually filtering the
air, and cleaning the insides.
The aim is to protect the
spacecraft's surface from dust and
bacteria, while protecting other planets from Earthly microbes.
Bacteria Bonanza
In the past, the most
common method of finding bacteria was to capture
samples, take them back to a lab, and try to grow a culture.
However, of all the
bacteria out there, "the fraction that you can grow
in a lab is about one percent," said study leader Kasthuri
Venkateswaran of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory at the California
Institute of Technology.
The rest we have not yet
found a way to grow outside of their native environments.
So Venkateswaran and
colleagues applied a sensitive technique that can
find traces of genetic material from bacteria—even from those species
that won't grow in the petri dish.
"To get a more global
picture, we need[ed] to use DNA fingerprinting," he said.
The researchers took
samples from clean rooms at three NASA sites: the
Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California; the Kennedy Space
Flight Center in Cape Canaveral, Florida; and the Johnson Space Center
in Houston, Texas.
The team spotted nearly a
hundred different kinds of bacteria in the
clean rooms, and about half of them were new to science. Some of the
bacteria were common culprits, such as the Staphylococcus, bugs that
thrive on human skin..."
The
Bottom Line: Talk about a misnomer. "Clean Room";
Sheesh. NASA really likes to embellish the truth when it comes to
their operations, it seems. Hey... I wonder if they even really
landed on that moon place, or if they just got drunk and made that
video in some dude's garage. Hmmm.
Friday, September 7th, 2007
- The Looming Food Crisis
London
(Guardian) -
"Land that was once
used to grow food is increasingly being turned over to biofuels. This
may help us to fight global warming - but it is driving up food prices
throughout the world and making life increasingly hard in developing
countries. Add in water shortages, natural disasters and an ever-rising
population, and what you have is a recipe for disaster.
The mile upon mile of
tall maize waving to the horizon around the small Nebraskan town of
Carleton looks perfect to farmers such as Mark Jagels. He and his
father farm 2,500 acres (10m sq km), the price of maize - what the
Americans call corn - has never been higher, and the future has seldom
seemed rosier. Carleton (town motto: "The center of it all") is
booming, with $200m of Californian money put up for a new biofuel
factory and, after years in the doldrums, there is new full-time,
well-paid work for 50 people.
But
there is a catch. The same fields that surround Jagels' house on the
great plains may be bringing new money to rural America, but they are
also helping to push up the price of bread in Manchester, tortillas in
Mexico City and beer in Madrid. As a direct result of what is happening
in places like Nebraska, Kansas, Indiana and Oklahoma, food aid for the
poorest people in southern Africa, pork in China and beef in Britain
are all more expensive.
Challenged
by President George Bush to produce 35bn gallons of non-fossil
transport fuels by 2017 to reduce US dependency on imported oil, the
Jagels family and thousands of farmers like them are patriotically
turning the corn belt of America from the bread basket of the world
into an enormous fuel tank. Only a year ago, their maize mostly went to
cattle feed or was exported as food aid. Come harvest time in
September, almost all will end up at the new plant at Carleton, where
it will be fermented to make ethanol, a clear, colourless alcohol
consumed, not by people, but by cars.
The
era of "agrofuels" has arrived, and the scale of the changes it is
already forcing on farming and markets around the world is immense. In
Nebraska alone, an extra million acres of maize have been planted this
year, and the state boasts it will produce 1bn gallons of ethanol.
Across the US, 20% of the whole maize crop went to ethanol last year.
How much is that? Just 2% of US automobile use.
"Probably
hasn't looked any better than it looks right now," Jerry Stahr, another
Nebraskan farmer, told his local paper recently.
Jagels
and Stahr are part of a global green rush, one of the greatest shifts
that world agriculture has seen in decades. As the US, Europe, China,
Japan and other countries commit themselves to using 10% or more
alternative automobile fuels, farmers everywhere are rushing to grow
maize, sugar cane, palm oil and oil seed rape, all of which can be
turned into ethanol or other biofuels for automobiles. But that means
getting out of other crops.
The
scale of the change is boggling. The Indian government says it wants to
plant 35m acres (140,000 sq km) of biofuel crops, Brazil as much as
300m acres (1.2m sq km). Southern Africa is being touted as the future
Middle East of biofuels, with as much as 1bn acres (4m sq km) of land
ready to be converted to crops such as Jatropha curcas (physic nut), a
tough shrub that can be grown on poor land. Indonesia has said it
intends to overtake Malaysia and increase its palm oil production from
16m acres (64,000 sq km) now to 65m acres (260,000 sq km) in 2025.
While
this may be marginally better for carbon emissions and energy security,
it is proving horrendous for food prices and anyone who stands in the
way of a rampant new industry. A year or two ago, almost all the land
where maize is now being grown to make ethanol in the US was being
farmed for human or animal food. And because America exports most of
the world's maize, its price has doubled in 10 months, and wheat has
risen about 50%.
The
effect on agriculture in the UK is price increases all round. "The
world price [of maize] has doubled," says Mark Hill, food partner at
the business advisory firm Deloitte. "In June, wheat prices across the
US and Europe hit their highest levels in more than a decade. These
price hikes are likely to trigger inflation in food prices, as
processors are forced to pay increased costs for basic ingredients such
as corn and wheat."
UK
flour millers, for example, need 5.5m tonnes of wheat to produce the
12m loaves sold each day in the UK. The majority of this wheat is grown
in the UK, and in the last year milling wheat prices moved from around
£100 a tonne to £200 a tonne. Hovis raised the price of a
standard loaf
from 93p to 99p in February and has said more increases are on the way.
In France, consumers have also been warned that their beloved baguette
will become more expensive.
The
era of cheap food is over, says Hill. World commodity prices of sugar,
milk and cocoa have all surged, prompting the biggest increase in
retail food prices in three decades in some countries. "Meat, too, will
cost more because chicken and pigs are fed largely on grain," says
Hill. "And while anyone growing grains will be better off, dairy and
livestock producers may well struggle in this environment."
But
the surge in demand for agrofuels such as ethanol is hitting the poor
and the environment the hardest. The UN World Food Programme, which
feeds about 90m people mostly with US maize, reckons that 850m people
around the world are already undernourished. There will soon be more
because the price of food aid has increased 20% in just a year.
Meanwhile, Indian food prices have risen 11% in a year, the price of
the staple tortilla quadrupled in Mexico in February and crowds of
75,000 people came on to the streets in protest. South Africa has seen
food-price rises of nearly 17%, and China was forced to halt all new
planting of corn for ethanol after staple foods such as pork soared by
42% last year.
In
the US, where nearly 40 million people are below the official poverty
line, the Department of Agriculture recently predicted a 10% rise in
the price of chicken. The prices of bread, beef, eggs and milk rose 7.5
% in July, the highest monthly rise in 25 years.
"The
competition for grain between the world's 800 million motorists, who
want to maintain their mobility, and its two billion poorest people,
who are simply trying to survive, is emerging as an epic issue," says
Lester Brown, president of the Washington-based Worldwatch Institute
thinktank, and author of the book Who Will Feed China?
It
is not going to get any better, says Brown. The UN's World Food
Organisation predicts that demand for biofuels will grow by 170% in the
next three years. A separate report from the OECD, the club of the
world's 30 richest countries, suggested food-price rises of between 20%
and 50% over the next decade, and the head of Nestlé, the
world's
largest food processor, said prices would remain high as far as anyone
could see ahead.
A
"perfect storm" of ecological and social factors appears to be
gathering force, threatening vast numbers of people with food shortages
and price rises. Even as the world's big farmers are pulling out of
producing food for people and animals, the global population is rising
by 87 million people a year; developing countries such as China and
India are switching to meat-based diets that need more land; and
climate change is starting to hit food producers hard. Recent reports
in the journals Science and Nature suggest that one-third of ocean
fisheries are in collapse, two-thirds will be in collapse by 2025, and
all major ocean fisheries may be virtually gone by 2048. "Global grain
supplies will drop to their lowest levels on record this year. Outside
of wartime, they have not been this low in a century, perhaps longer,"
says the US Department of Agriculture.
In
seven of the past eight years the world has actually grown less grain
than it consumed, says Brown. World stocks of grain - that is, the food
held in reserve for times of emergency - are now sufficient for just
over 50 days. According to experts, we are in "the post- food-surplus
era".
The
food crisis, Brown warns, is only just beginning. What worries him as
much as the new competition between food and fuel is that the booming
Chinese and Indian populations - the two largest nations in the world,
with nearly 40% of the world's population between them - are giving up
their traditional vegetable-rich diets to adopt typical "American"
diets that contain more meat and dairy products. Meat demand in China
has quadrupled in 30 years, and in India, milk and egg products are
increasingly popular.
In
itself, this is no problem, say Brown and others, except that it means
an accelerated demand for water to grow more food. It takes 7kg of
grain to produce 1kg of beef, and increased demand will require huge
amounts of grain-growing land. Much of this, of course, will need to be
irrigated. "Water tables are now falling in countries that contain over
half the world's people," Brown points out. "While numerous analysts
and policymakers are concerned about a future of water shortages, few
have connected the dots to see that a future of water shortages means a
future of food shortages."
New
figures from the World Bank, he says, show that 15% of the world's
present food supplies, on which 160 million people depend, are being
grown with water drawn from rapidly depleting underground sources or
from rivers that are drying up. In large areas of China and India, the
water table has fallen catastrophically.
Scientists
are becoming increasingly alarmed. Earlier this year, water specialists
from hundreds of institutes around the world published the biggest ever
assessment of water and food. Their conclusions were chilling. With the
earth's water, land and human resources, it would be possible to
produce enough food for the future, they said. "But it is probable that
today's food production and environmental trends will lead to crises in
many parts of the world," said David Molden, deputy director general of
the International Water Management Institute.
Climate
change, meanwhile, is leading to more intense rains, unpredictable
storms, longer-lasting droughts, and interrupted seasons. In Britain,
the recent floods will result in a shortage of vegetables such as
potatoes and peas, and cereals such as wheat. This comes on top of a
4.9% rise in food prices in the year to May - well over consumer price
inflation - and a 9.6% hike in vegetable prices.
Britain
can get by, but elsewhere climate change is proving disastrous. "I met
leaders from Madagascar reeling from seven cyclones in the first six
months of the year," Josette Sheeran, new director of the World Food
Programme, told colleagues in Rome recently. "I asked them when the
season ends and was told that such questions are becoming more
difficult to answer. Farmers know that predictable patterns in weather
are becoming a thing of the past. How does the global food supply
system deal with such changing risk?"
The
answer is: with ever greater difficulty. The Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change predicts that rain-dependent agriculture could be cut in
half by 2020 as a result of climate change. "Anything even close to a
50% reduction in yields would obviously pose huge problems," said
Sheeran. Within a week, Lesotho had declared a food emergency after the
worst drought in 30 years and greatly reduced harvests in neighbouring
South Africa pushed prices well beyond the reach of most of the
population..."
More:
Dollar
hovers near 1-month low
Gold
nearing 16-mth high
Odds
rising of a money market driven blowup
Credit
turmoil has raised risks to economy: Fed [Talk abount an
understatement]
World economy
'facing slowdown'
More US
subprime borrowers hit
The
Bottom Line: More and more money is buying less and less
food, just as less and less water is growing less and less food.
More and more people are putting demand on less and less of a supply of
food. See where this picture is going?
- Oil and gas spending hits record
high
London
(MSNBC) - "Worldwide spending by companies on oil and gas
projects increased to a record high last year, but resulted in a
minimal increase in global reserves, according to a new study released
Wednesday.
John S.
Herold, an oil and gas research firm, and Harrison Lovegrove, an
industry advisory group, found that spending by the 228 global oil and
gas companies surveyed increased 45 per cent to $401bn in 2006.
The
report, which covered oil giants such as ExxonMobil as well as smaller
independent exploration and production companies, stated that the
record capital spending generated only a 2 per cent increase in reserve
volumes to 263bn barrels of oil equivalent.
The
report's sponsors said the gap between
spending and reserve replacement reflected the higher costs of
production at maturing fields with declining output. Oil and gas
companies are also finding it more difficult to access new reserves in
some countries, they said.
"Given
the maturities of the basins and the limited access to some of the more
prolific hydrocarbons basins, the costs keep going up and it gets
harder to find and replace reserves," said Rodney Schmidt, managing
director of Harrison Lovegrove.
The
report validated recent research by the International Energy Agency,
the energy watchdog for industrialised countries, which in July put
forward the possibility of a global oil supply "crunch" in five years'
time.
The
IEA said
supply was falling faster than expected in mature oil and gas producing
areas, such as the North Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, while some new
projects were facing long delays.
International oil companies
are facing greater difficulties building up reserves in the former
Soviet Union and Latin America, where governments are looking to exert
greater control over local resources.
Wednesday's
report said cash flow generated by the industry, at $391bn in 2006, was
exceeded by investment, which came to $401bn for the first time since
1999..."
More:
Oil
climbs on MidEast tension, U.S. inventory falls
The
Bottom Line: More and more money is buying less and less
oil/fuel. More and more people have less and less money to buy
even less and less fuel. See where this picture is going?
- Hurricane Felix death toll rises
Mexico (BBC)
- "At least 100 people are now believed to have been killed by
Hurricane Felix in Nicaragua and Honduras, officials say.
The storm hit land in
north-eastern Nicaragua on Tuesday
as a maximum strength category five storm.
It has since dissipated,
but dozens of people are still
missing and the death toll is expected to rise as rescuers search the
open seas and remote jungle.
Tens of thousands of
people have been left homeless, but
emergency aid is beginning to reach affected areas.
In Honduras, 52 Miskito
Indians have been washed ashore
alive, government officials said.
They had been swept off a
tiny island and survived the
storm by clinging to planks and lifebuoys.
Fishing communities of
Miskito Indians live on island
reefs along the Honduran-Nicaraguan border..."
More:
Hurricane
Felix death toll nears 100, official says
The
Bottom Line: More and more... wait. This has pretty
much been obvious to any who so much as glance at the news.
Batten down the hatches - Mother Nature is PISSED.
Thursday, September 6th, 2007
- Stocks decline as data adds to
economy fears
NEW YORK (Reuters) -
"Stocks fell on Wednesday after reports showed
the housing slump was deepening and spreading to the job market while
slowing consumer spending.
Investor concerns about
the health of the U.S. consumer were exacerbated when Costco Wholesale
Corp (COST.O: Quote, Profile, Research),reported sales for August that
fell short of expectations and Apple Inc (AAPL.O: Quote, Profile,
Research) announced big price cuts on its new iPhones in an effort to
spur sales.
Retail and technology
shares fell broadly, with the Nasdaq snapping a four-session winning
streak.
The Dow Jones industrial
average (.DJI: Quote, Profile, Research) was down 143.39 points, or
1.07 percent, at 13,305.47. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (.SPX:
Quote, Profile, Research) was down 17.13 points, or 1.15 percent, at
1,472.29. The Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC: Quote, Profile, Research)
was down 24.29 points, or 0.92 percent, at 2,605.95.
Evidence of possible
trouble for the economy came from reports
showing that pending sales of previously owned homes plunged by a
record 12.2 percent in July and that private employers hired the fewest
workers in more than four years in August.
"Coming into the session,
there was profit-taking due in part to the
ongoing uncertainty with regard to the health of the credit markets.
That selling accelerated after the weaker-than-expected home sales
report," said Michael Malone, trading analyst with Cowen & Co. in
New York.
Citigroup Inc (C.N:
Quote,
Profile, Research)
fell 2.6 percent to $46 and was the top drag on the S&P 500 index
after The Wall Street Journal said Citi and other banks could face
financial exposure due to affiliated investment units that have issued
short-term debt.
Shares of home builders
declined, with the Dow Jones home construction index down 4.3 percent.
For a short period during the session,
stocks extended losses after
a Federal Reserve business survey suggested continued strength in the
economy, which analysts said left open the question about the timing of
an interest rate cut..."
More:
Countrywide
to cut 900 jobs in mortgage divisions
Pending
home sales plunge
MGIC
scraps Radian deal amid mortgage turmoil
Gold
hits 6-week high
The
Bottom Line: Just the beginning of the credit-crunch
fallout.
- Oil rises to $76 as U.S.
stockpiles seen falling
SINGAPORE
(Reuters) - "Oil prices rose to $76 a barrel on Thursday,
buoyed by expectations that U.S. crude and gasoline inventories fell
last week.
U.S. crude (CLc1: Quote,
Profile, Research)
rose 33 cents to $76.06 a barrel by 9:44 p.m. EDT, after a high of
$76.25 and gains of 65 cents on Wednesday. London Brent crude (LCOc1:
Quote, Profile, Research) was up 21 cents at $74.55 a barrel.
U.S. crude oil stocks are
expected to have slipped 500,000 barrels
in the week to August 31, after Hurricane Dean disrupted Mexican oil
exports, while gasoline stocks were seen falling 1.3 million barrels in
U.S. government data due later on Thursday, according to a Reuters poll
of analysts <EIA/S>.
"The expectations are for
quite a fall and with prices going where
they are going, you've really got to get that now, or there will be a
disappointment," said Tobin Gorey, a commodities strategist at
Australia's Commonwealth Bank.
The supply worries were
compounded by expectations that oil cartel
OPEC will maintain its output curb when it meets on September 11 in
Vienna.
Most OPEC members have
said that the recent rally in oil prices is
due to a shortage of refined products and an output boost would only
add to what they call comfortable stock levels.
Traders are also keeping
an eye on the storm season in the Gulf of
Mexico, with the Colorado State University forecasting that the rest of
the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season would be busy.
Prices this week have
climbed towards a record high of $78.77 hit on
August 1, as Hurricane Felix threatened the Gulf of Mexico, but Felix
has since been downgraded to a tropical depression after hitting
Honduras, and is not seen affecting Mexico's major oilfields..."
The
Bottom Line: Ugh.
- Germany foils 'massive' bomb plot
Berlin (BBC) —
"Three men have been arrested in Germany on suspicion
of planning a "massive" attack on US facilities in the country,
officials have said.
Federal prosecutor Monika Harms said the three had
trained at camps in Pakistan and procured some 700kg (1,500lbs) of
chemicals for explosives.
She said the accused had sought to target facilities visited by
Americans, such as nightclubs, pubs or airports.
Defence Minister Franz Josef Jung said the men had posed "an imminent
threat".
Media reports said the men were planning attacks against a US military
base in Ramstein and Frankfurt airport.
The US praised the actions of the German government and
said the incident showed everyone needed to be vigilant in finding
"terrorists".
German government sources have
told the BBC they believe
at least seven members of the cell are still at large..."
More:
Germany:
'Massive' attacks foiled
The
Bottom Line: Only a matter of time before some of these
zealous buffoons make it through with one of their stupid plans.
Wednesday, September 5th, 2007
- Pentagon Source Confirms China
Hacked Defense Department Computers
WASHINGTON
(Fox) — "The
Chinese government hacked a noncritical Defense Department computer
system in June, a Pentagon source told FOX News on Tuesday.
Pentagon
investigators could not definitively link the cyber attack to the
Chinese military, the source said, but the technology was sophisticated
enough that it indicated to Pentagon officials — as well as those in
charge of computer security — that it came from within the Chinese
government.
The
source's information directly contradicts Chinese claims earlier
Tuesday, in which officials called the allegations "groundless." The
Chinese government, officials said, opposes cyber crime.
"It's a safe assumption that the technology was
resident in the state," the source told FOX. It was a "complicated
attack."
"These
hacking attacks go on everyday but this was a more complicated attack
with more sophisticated technology that broke through the current
firewalls," the Pentagon source said. "It's a constant game of cat and
mouse. This was a wake-up call for us."
The
source added that the area hacked was not a very important one. It was
a section of the office of the Defense secretary that deals with policy
and administrative matters comprised of all unclassified e-mail
accounts. The source added that the area is not significant to any
operational security.
The Pentagon computers were taken off line for about
3 weeks, according to Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman.
The
Pentagon is also reviewing its policy on BlackBerry devices given the
threat of cyber attacks. Officials said Tuesday that the military is
pursuing a sophisticated way to protect the handy wireless devices, and
that the department is likely going to be expanding their use.
The
Financial Times, citing unnamed officials, reported Monday that the
People's Liberation Army hacked into a computer system in the office of
Defense Secretary Robert Gates in June. The attack forced officials to
take down the network for more than a week, the report said.
China
denied the reports.
"Some
people make groundless accusations against China" that its military
attacked the Pentagon, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu
said at a regular news briefing.
"China has all
along been opposed to and forbids criminal activities undermining
computer networks, including hacking," she said. "China is ready to
strengthen cooperation with other countries, including the U.S., in
countering Internet crimes."
It was the second
time in two weeks that China was accused of hacking into a foreign
government's computers. On the eve of German Chancellor Angela Merkel's
visit to Beijing last week, the weekly Der Spiegel said computers at
the Chancellery and three ministries had been infected with so-called
Trojans, or spy programs.
The report, which did
not specify its sources, said Germany's domestic intelligence agency
believed a group of hackers associated with the People's Liberation
Army might have been behind the alleged hacking..."
More:
China denies
Pentagon cyber-raid
The
Bottom Line: If you ask me, this is an act of war; but
that's just my opinion. Let's not get hasty here.
- Oil Holds above $75
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - "Oil prices
held above $75 a barrel on
Wednesday as traders awaited data that is expected to show U.S. crude
stocks fell last week and an OPEC meeting next week where supply is
likely to remain unchanged.
U.S. light crude for
October delivery (CLc1: Quote, Profile, Research)
inched 6 cents higher to $75.14 a barrel by 11:00 p.m. EDT, near
Tuesday's one-month high of $75.25. London Brent crude (LCOc1: Quote,
Profile, Research) rose 7 cents to $73.99.
U.S. crude stocks
probably fell by 400,000 barrels due to
weather-related disruptions to imports, while gasoline stocks were seen
falling 1.5 million barrels, a Reuters poll showed ahead of Thursday's
U.S. government inventory report.
"The focus is on the
crude oil drawdown," said Tony Nunan at
Mitsubishi Corp's risk management unit. "It's no secret that OPEC has
been producing about a million barrels a day less than last year. But
it's coming down from very high levels," he added.
Some analysts have
forecast global supply could struggle to keep up
with demand later this year unless the Organization of Petroleum
Exporting Countries ramps up oil production.
Comments from OPEC
members suggest the group is likely to leave
policy unchanged at its meeting on September 11. Only Indonesia, OPEC's
second smallest producer, has said it may propose an increase.
OPEC, which sets supply
limits for 10 of its 12 member countries,
thinks raising output next week would just add to inventories that are
already at a comfortable level, an OPEC source said on Tuesday.
But the group may need to
boost crude oil output by up to 1 million
barrels per day (bpd) later in 2007, perhaps in December, should demand
prove robust and inventories fall, the source said.
Prices have climbed 1.6 percent this
week, towards a record high of
$78.77 hit on August 1, as Hurricane Felix threatened the Gulf of
Mexico, but Felix weakened to a tropical storm after hitting the
Caribbean coastline of Nicaragua and Honduras..."
The
Bottom Line: Gas is getting pricey.
- California Heat Wave to Blame for
at Least 13 Deaths
LOS ANGELES (Fox) —
"Scorching temperatures
that have gripped Southern California for more than a week were blamed
Tuesday for at least 13 deaths.
As
the heat wave entered its eighth day, authorities reported finding
bodies in vehicles and apartments throughout the region.
Twelve
of the deaths occurred in Los Angeles County, said Capt. Ed Winter of
the coroner's office. A 13th death was confirmed in San Bernardino
County.
In
Los Angeles, an elderly couple was
found in their apartment in the San Fernando Valley's Valley Village
neighborhood Monday, where temperatures of 106 degrees were reported,
authorities said. The man and woman, whose identities were withheld
until their family could be notified, did not have air conditioning,
Battalion Chief Peter Penesch said.
San
Bernardino County sheriff's deputies in Twentynine Palms on Sunday
found the body of Michael Cuhna on the Marine Corps base there. His
dehydrated and sunburned friend reported the Hesperia man missing a day
earlier, according to a release from the sheriff's department.
The
friend told police the two were separated while illegally gathering
scrap metal from the base. A preliminary coroner's report found Cuhna
died as a result of exposure and dehydration..."
The
Bottom Line: It's getting bad.
Tuesday, September 4th, 2007
- Subprime crisis to hit world
economy -D.Bank CEO
FRANKFURT (Reuters) - "Global
economic growth will take a
hit as a result of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, says the chief
executive of Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE: Quote, Profile, Research),
Germany's biggest bank.
"Growth, especially of
private consumption in the United States,
will suffer because of the housing crisis and that can naturally not go
without negatively affecting the world economy overall," Josef
Ackermann said in a guest column to be published in the German business
daily Handelsblatt on Monday.
Handelsblatt made a
summary of Ackermann's text available to other media at the weekend.
Ackermann said many banks
and investors affected by the credit
market turmoil that arose in the wake of the subprime crisis had
apparently taken risks that exceeded their size and risk-bearing
capacity.
"This is, to say it
clearly, above all negligence on the part of the managements of these
houses," he said.
The distribution of
credit risks in the international financial
system had not been transparent to supervisory authorities and market
participants, he said.
Deutsche Bank has shut
down its proprietary credit trading desk in
London and is laying off some of the 14-strong team, a source familiar
with the matter said on Friday.
Earlier last month a
source close to Deutsche Bank told Reuters the
bank was set to ditch its credit relative-value trading strategy used
by the London proprietary trading desk after losses of about $135
million.
Deutsche Bank has declined to
comment..."
More:
German
bank IKB, hit by subprime crisis, forecasts large full-year loss
Few
Expect a Panacea in a Rate Cut by the Fed
Subprime
bond investors blase on Bush mortgage plan
The
Bottom Line: I wonder what the noise made by a huge
failure would sound like. We're hearing it now.
- OPEC keeps lid on supplies
LONDON (Reuters) - "Oil climbed
further above $74 on Monday, within
sight of its record high, as OPEC kept a lid on output in the run-up to
its September 11 ministerial meeting.
Market participants were
keeping watch of a potentially catastrophic
Category 5 storm in the Atlantic Ocean. Current projections show it
avoiding offshore U.S. oil and gas fields.
U.S. crude was up 44
cents at $74.48 by 1:33 p.m. The U.S. Labor Day
holiday shut the New York trading floor but electronic trade continued
as usual.
London Brent crude was 72
cents up at $73.44.
OPEC kept oil production
restricted in August, a Reuters survey
found, suggesting the exporter group is intent on retaining output
curbs when it gathers next week in Vienna.
Consumer nations have
been calling for more oil as the price climbs
back towards its August 1 all-time high of $78.77. Oil analysts also
say OPEC must boost supplies to keep pace with growing demand this
winter.
"...We believe that
growing evidence that the oil market is
tightening fast is the key force behind the recent push up in prices,"
said a Barclays Capital report.
OPEC has repeatedly said
shortfalls of refined products are not its problem and the world is
amply supplied with crude.
"In my
opinion, supply is sufficient," Qatari Oil Minister Abdullah
al-Attiyah told Reuters on Monday. "I don't think OPEC has anything to
do at the meeting next week.".."
The
Bottom Line: We won't see oil go down in price ever again
with this type of malefic manipulation of supply/production.
- Report: Chinese Military Hacked
Into Pentagon Computer System
Washington
D.C. (Fox) — "A Pentagon
computer network was taken down for more than a week after the Chinese
military hacked into it in June, the Financial Times reported Monday.
A computer system serving the office of U.S. Defense
Secretary Robert Gates
is believed to be the victim of the cyber attack. While the Pentagon
would not say who may have orchestrated the plot, a senior official
told the Financial Times that the People’s Liberation Army may have
been the culprit.
It is not clear how much data was downloaded from the
system, but a person with knowledge of the attack told the Financial
Times that most of the information was probably “unclassified.”
President George W. Bush is expected to meet with
Chinese president Hu Jintao this week before the Apec summit in
Australia..."
The
Bottom Line: China is not acting like an ally at all. Cold
War II, anyone?
Monday, September 3rd, 2007
- Russia won't bargain over Kosovo,
missiles: Lavrov
MOSCOW (Reuters) - "Moscow is not
prepared to bargain over Kosovo or
Washington's plans for a missile shield in Europe and the West must
understand this, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Monday.
He said Kosovo, a Serbian
province pressing for independence, and
the U.S. plan to station parts of a missile shield in eastern Europe,
represented for Russia "red lines" which must not be crossed.
"It should be understood
that we have red lines, that is where our
national security or the world order is threatened," Lavrov said in a
speech to students at the Moscow State Institute of International
Affairs.
"Russia is not bargaining
and our partners should understand this," he said.
Lavrov did not say what
precisely would be unacceptable to Russia
over Kosovo or the missile shield -- or if there was scope for
compromise.
Russia has strongly
opposed a Western-backed proposal to set Kosovo
on the path to independence from Belgrade. It says it will accept only
a solution on the province's status backed by both Serbia and Kosovo's
ethnic Albanian majority.
Washington says its
missile defense shield is needed to protect
against possible rocket strikes from what it calls "rogue states" such
as Iran and North Korea.
But Russia says the
shield is a threat to its own security. It has
proposed an alternative scheme that would involve Moscow and Washington
sharing radar data to create a collective missile defense system..."
The
Bottom Line: The most stern word of warning from the
Ruskies to date. They definately sound like they mean
business. Cold War II; yep.
- Hurricane Felix grows to
'potentially catastrophic' Category 5
Mexico (CNN) -- "Hurricane Felix has
grown to a "potentially
catastrophic" Category 5 storm packing winds up to 165 mph (270 kph),
the National Hurricane Center said late Sunday.
Category 5 is the fiercest class of hurricane, with
storm surges greater than 18 feet above normal.
The second hurricane of the Atlantic season, Felix
prompted the Honduran government to issue a hurricane watch.
As of 11 p.m. ET, Felix was 345 miles southeast of
Kingston, Jamaica, and moving westward in the central Caribbean at 21
mph.
The hurricane watch in Honduras applies from Limon
to the Nicaragua
border, the NHC said. Hurricane conditions are also possible over
extreme northeastern Nicaragua.
A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions
are possible in the area within about 36 hours.
The hurricane center called Felix "an extremely
powerful" storm but
said it "has a very small wind field," with hurricane-force winds
currently extending outward up to only 25 miles from the storm's center.
Although a tropical storm watch remained in effect
Sunday night for Jamaica and Grand Cayman Island, all watches and storm
warnings for the islands of Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao had been
discontinued.
Felix hit Aruba, Curacao and Bonaire with heavy
winds and rain over the
weekend. Thousands of tourists took shelter in hotels, The Associated
Press reported.
But Bonaire medical administrator Siomara
Albertus said she was happy the storm wasn't as bad as she had
anticipated. "Thankfully we didn't get a very bad storm," she told the
AP. "My dog slept peacefully through the night."
Although long-term predictions of hurricane behavior
are not wholly
reliable, forecasts called for Felix to pass just north of the Honduran
coast before possibly hitting Belize on Tuesday or Wednesday, said CNN
meteorologist Jacqui Jeras..."
More:
Felix
surges to maximum strength
The
Bottom Line: That sucks for Mexico.
- California Heat Wave Causes Power
Shortages, Extreme Weather Grips State
LOS ANGELES (Fox) — "With
temperatures expected to be well above 100 degrees again Sunday,
California officials were appealing to residents to turn down their air
conditioners and hold off on using major appliances until after dark.
The
blistering heat wave blanketing California continued to place
tremendous strain on the power grid, as some 2,600 homes and businesses
in Los Angeles remained without power Saturday after overloaded
circuits knocked out power to thousands last week.
Around the state, dozens of cooling centers have
been opened in parks, libraries, senior centers and county fairgrounds.
The
heat wave wasn't the only extreme weather causing havoc in the state.
The misery was being compounded by humidity as moisture moves in from
the south, causing concerns about sudden thunderstorms.
Flash-flood warnings have been issued for many valley, mountain and
desert areas. A funnel cloud touched down in the Antelope Valley
desert, but no one was hurt.
The statewide heat wave was expected to bring
triple-digit temperatures through the Labor Day weekend.
Highs
were expected to reach 113 in Woodland Hills in the San Fernando Valley
and well over 100 in many other valley and desert areas of Southern
California.
At
the same time, unstable weather caused by monsoonal moisture from the
south prompted concerns of sudden thunderstorms in valleys, mountains
and deserts. A flash-flood watch was in effect through Saturday for
those areas in San Bernardino, Riverside and San Diego counties.
In
San Bernardino National Forest, a lightening strike from a summer storm
was suspected of sparking a wildfire Saturday. Officials said the
150-acre fire, dubbed the "Butler Fire," was burning on steep slopes
near Butler Peak at the east end of Big Bear Lake, a reservoir 40 miles
northeast of San Bernardino.
The California
Independent System Operator, which oversees the state's power grid,
said no major shortages were expected through Monday. Still, it urged
customers to continue conserving electricity by setting air
conditioning thermostats higher and waiting to use major appliances
until after dark.
In Los Angeles, which has its
own power system, blackouts were reported Friday night as demand
overloaded some circuits. About 2,600 customers were still without
electricity Saturday afternoon, most of them in the Eagle Rock area
near downtown.
There was "tremendous strain" on
electrical transmission equipment because nights remain hot and people
were running air conditioners around the clock, said Joe Ramallo, a
spokesman for the Department of Water and Power.
"I compare it to running a car at 100 mph for 24
hours," he said.
The
DWP said its power load peaked at 6,107 megawatts at midafternoon
Friday, second only to its all-time record peak of 6,165 megawatts set
on July 24, 2006.
Around the state, dozens of
cooling centers were open in parks, libraries, senior centers and
county fairgrounds. The shelters were sparsely attended on Saturday and
hospitals also reported few patients with heat-related problems, said
Carol Singleton, a spokeswoman for the state Office of Emergency
Services.
However, she urged people to check on
vulnerable neighbors, such as senior citizens, to make sure they were
getting enough water.
"That's really key, to look out for each other
during this heat wave," she said..."
The
Bottom Line: Infrastructure = crippled.
Sunday, September 2nd, 2007
- U.S. at risk of recession from
housing
JACKSON HOLE, Wyoming (Reuters) -
"The weak housing market could
topple the country into a full-blown recession and the Federal Reserve
should slash interest rates aggressively, one of the country's most
prominent economists warned on Saturday.
"Lower interest rates now
would help," Martin Feldstein, president
of the influential National Bureau of Economic Research, told an annual
retreat of central bankers and academics, including a number of senior
Fed policy-makers.
Feldstein, who warned of
a "multiplier effect" from declining home
prices and lower consumer spending, said a cut of as much as 100 basis
points might be warranted.
The symposium, hosted by
the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in
the Grand Teton mountains, is examining the implications of a meltdown
in the U.S. subprime mortgage market for borrowers with risky credit.
Evidence the problems
have spread to Europe and Australia has hit
the availability of credit and roiled financial markets worldwide.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke
also attended the symposium but left before Feldstein made his remarks.
In a speech on Friday,
Bernanke said the Fed would not rescue
investors from self-inflicted losses. But he said it would not stand by
and allow innocent people to suffer from a wider slowdown, and would it
act -- cutting interest rates -- if it was persuaded by the economic
evidence.
Financial futures
indicate a 100 percent likelihood that the Fed
will lower its overnight funds rate by a quarter percentage point to
5.0 percent when policy-makers next meet, on September 18.
Feldstein, who was one of the front-runners for the top job at the
Fed until Bernanke was picked for the post, saw three challenges to
U.S. growth from housing: declining home prices; the subprime mortgage
crisis; and weakening home equity withdrawal and refinancing..."
More:
Financial
Extinctions: The Subprime Meteorite Has Hit
The
Bottom Line: Ugly, Ugly, Ugly.
- Iran 'reaches nuclear target'
TEHRAN, Iran
(AP) -- "Iran has reached its long-sought goal of
running 3,000 centrifuges to enrich uranium for its nuclear program,
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced Sunday in a report on
state media.
The U.N. Security Council
had threatened a third round of sanctions
against the country if it did not freeze the uranium enrichment program
-- which Iran maintains is for peaceful energy purposes, but the U.S.
says is to hide a weapons program.
"The West thought the
Iranian
nation would give in after just a resolution, but now we have taken
another step in the nuclear progress and launched more than 3,000
centrifuge machines, installing a new cascade every week," the state
television Web site quoted Ahmadinejad as saying.
Still, Ahmadinejad's
comments seemed at odds with independent assessments of the status of
his country's enrichment program.
As recently as Thursday,
a report drawn up by International Atomic
Energy Agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei, put the number of centrifuges
enriching uranium at closer to 2,000 at its vast underground hall at
Natanz.
The 2,000 figure is an
increase of a few hundred of the
machines over May, when the IAEA last reported on Iran. Still the rate
of expansion is much slower than a few months ago, when Tehran was
assembling close to 200 centrifuges every two weeks.
As well,
Iran continued to produce only negligible amounts of nuclear fuel with
its centrifuges, far below the level usable for nuclear warheads, the
report said.
"They have the knowledge
to proceed much more quickly," said a U.N. official.
While Iran has denied
stalling, the official and others suggested it
could have decided to proceed at a slower pace as it increases its
cooperation with agency investigators looking at past suspicious
activities so as to reduce any sentiment to impose new U.N. sanctions.
Former U.N. nuclear
inspector David Albright and Jacqueline Shire of
the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security
said the slowdown could be a combination of both "technical
difficulties" and "political considerations."
"Iran likely has
managed to learn how to operate individual centrifuges and cascades
adequately. However, it still may be struggling to operate a large
number of cascades at the same time in parallel," they wrote in a
report e-mailed to The Associated Press.
"In addition, Iran's
leadership may have decided to slow work to overcome technical problems
in order to forestall negative reactions that would lend support for
further sanctions by the UN Security Council.".."
More:
Iran
is running 3,000 atomic centrifuges: president
Report:
Pentagon Has 3-Day Plan to Knock Out Iran's Military
The
Bottom Line: Outlook is not so good.
- Forecasters: Felix churning toward
'major hurricane' status
MIAMI, Florida
(CNN) -- Hurricane Felix may become a major hurricane by Sunday
night or early Monday, the National Hurricane Center said on Sunday.
Packing top winds of 105
mph, the Category 2 Felix churned in the
Caribbean just north of the popular vacation destination islands of
Bonaire, Aruba and Curacao, the center said.
A storm must reach
Category 3 status, with winds of at least 111 mph, before the hurricane
center labels it major.
In its 11 a.m. ET update,
the weather center said Felix was about 50
miles (75 kilometers) north of the island of Aruba and about 555 miles
(895 kilometers) southeast of Jamaica's capital, Kingston.
Felix was moving west-northwest at 18
mph and forecasters predicted
that the storm's center would continue on this track, passing to the
north of Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao on Sunday. The storm is expected to
pass into the open waters of the Caribbean Sea later in the day and
into the night.
A hurricane watch was put
in effect for those islands, meaning that
hurricane conditions, including winds of more than 74 mph, are expected
within 36 hours.
The government of the
Cayman Islands has
issued a tropical storm watch for Grand Cayman -- meaning that tropical
storm conditions are possible within 36 hours.
The Jamaican government
maintained a tropical storm watch.
The NHC said Felix is
expected to dump 2 to 4 inches of rain, possibly
as much as 6 inches in isolated areas, over the Netherlands Antilles
and parts of northwestern Venezuela and northern Colombia.
In
the Pacific, the Mexican government canceled all warnings pertaining to
Tropical Storm Henriette, as the storm, hovering just below hurricane
status with winds of up to 70 mph, was moving away from Mexico's
mainland..."
More:
Felix
Strengthens to Category 2 Hurricane
The
Bottom Line: Mexico looks like it's going to get hammered
yet again.
Saturday, September 1st, 2007
- Housing woe could trip world slump
JACKSON HOLE, WY. (Reuters) -
"Weakness in the U.S. housing market
could trigger an international slide in home prices that depresses the
sector for years , a top housing specialist warned central bankers on
Friday.
"The United States, as
the premier example of a capitalist economy,
has the potential to lead price expectations down in many countries,"
said Robert Shiller, in a paper presented at the Kansas City Federal
Reserve's monetary policy conference in the mountain resort of Jackson
Hole, Wyoming.
"It is not improbable
that we will see such large real price
declines extending over many years in major cities that have seen large
increases," Shiller said.
Central bankers,
economists and academics from around the world have
gathered here to discuss the relationship between housing and monetary
policy against a backdrop of global financial turmoil. Fears about
contagion from troubles in the U.S. subprime mortgage market have hit
credit availability and threaten to slow economic growth.
Shiller, a professor of
economics and finance at Yale University,
said the dramatic rise in house prices witnessed in a number of
advanced economies created serious challenges, and it was very tough to
predict what lay ahead.
"The implications of this
boom and its possible reversal in coming
years stands as a serious issue for economic policy-makers. It may be
hard to understand from past experience what to expect next, since the
magnitude of the boom is unprecedented," he said in prepared remarks,
released to the media prior to delivery.
The decline in U.S. house
prices picked up speed in the second
quarter, falling 3.2 percent on the S&P/Case-Shiller national home
price index after a 1.6 percent drop in the previous three months.
A big part of the problem
for policy-makers was the role of
psychology in driving up house prices, leading to a speculative bubble
that was much more prone to a swift correction impacting a number of
otherwise unconnected housing markets.
"Speculative markets are inherently unpredictable, and ... the
incipient downturn in the United States could reverse and head back
up," said Shiller..."
More:
Ameriquest
closes, Citigroup buys mortgage assets
Inflation
outlook weaker in August
Anxiety
remains even after stock rebound
Bush,
Bernanke launch subprime assault
The
Bottom Line: How deep does this rabbit hole go?
- Should the West fear Russia's
military build-up?
MOSCOW (Reuters) - "The Russian bear
is showing its claws again, but how sharp are they?
President Vladimir Putin
has rattled the West with a wave of dramatic military announcements
redolent of the Cold War.
Long-range Russian
bombers capable of carrying nuclear weapons are
back on flying patrol around the world, prompting NATO fighters to
scramble in response.
New long-range missiles
have been test-fired, one streaking from one
end of Russia to the other in less than half an hour, according to
official accounts.
And the former Red Army
is re-equipping itself, with defense
spending growing 20-40 percent a year since Putin came to power in
2000, albeit from a low base after the ravages of the 1990s.
Should be West be worried ?
"Overall, Russia's
military capability is well below 50 percent of
what the Soviet Union had," Peter Felstead, editor of Jane's defense
Weekly, said in a telephone interview.
"The bombers resuming
flights was more a prestige thing and a diplomatic signal than real
military posturing."
The
State Department in Washington dismissed the bombers'
reappearance as Russia taking "old aircraft out of mothballs" -- an
unflattering reference to the backbone of Moscow's fleet, the
propeller-driven Tupolev-95 which first flew in 1952..."
The
Bottom Line:
Cold War II has been in the making ever since the end of Cold War
I.
This one, however, is seemingly more complicated, with many more
players involved.
- Mystery DR Congo fever kills 100
Congo
(BBC) - "More than 100 people have died because
of a fever
epidemic in the centre of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, health
officials say.
Many of the victims are people who have been in contact
with the deceased, including medical staff, and who lack equipment to
deal with the illness.
The latest victim was a nurse at a local hospital. She died on Thursday
after taking care of infected patients.
Health officials say the medical staff had no masks and this put them
at risk.
Speaking from Kananga, the capital of West Kasai region,
Dr Jean-Constantin Kanow said the illness had first started three
months ago, when chickens and pigs started dying - but now people were
also affected.
The epidemic was affecting four villages: Kampungu, Makonono, Kaluamba
and Mombo.
Funeral rites
Traditionally, people in DR Congo wash dead bodies by hand.
The doctor said that such funeral rites seemed to favour the
transmission of the disease.
He said many people who attended the recent funeral of a local chief
had also died of fever and dehydration.
The World Health Organisation has sent a team to take
blood samples for analysis at laboratories specialising in haemorrhagic
fever.
DR Congo's last major Ebola outbreak killed more than
200 people in 1995 in Kikwit, about 400km (249 miles) west of the
current outbreak.
But health officials say it is too
early to determine if this
new epidemic outbreak is indeed a haemorrhagic fever..."
The
Bottom Line: Pathogens vary in their symptoms, incubation
rate and virility. Some, are far more virulent than others.
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