News
Archives, September 16-22, 2007
Saturday, September 22nd, 2007
- Dollar hits bottom, and then falls
again
United
Kingdom (International Heral
Tribune) -- "The dollar fell sharply Friday, reaching a record low
against the
euro and capping a dramatic week for global financial markets that was
marked by interest rate cuts, bank bailouts and skyrocketing oil
prices.
The level of the dollar -
often regarded as a barometer of the U.S.
economy's health - dropped to $1.4120 against the euro during business
hours in Asia, reaching an all-time low for a second consecutive day.
It also slipped against a
number of other major currencies on
speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve would keep cutting interest
rates as the world's largest economy weakens.
Sentiment soured for the
dollar after Ben Bernanke, chairman of the
Federal Reserve, stoked speculation that he might continue to lower
rates following this week's aggressive trim of half a percentage point.
Bernanke said Thursday that the sell-off in credit markets could make
the housing recession more severe.
The dollar recovered
somewhat during European trading, but investors
believe that the currency will continue to lose ground, as it has for
much of the past six years.
"The dollar weakness will
drag on," said Simon Derrick, chief
currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon in London. "The crisis
is not over and the Fed is likely to cut rates further."
Officials across the
globe, including the U.S. Treasury secretary,
Henry Paulson Jr., have also been warning that it will take some time
for the dust to clear from the fallout of the tanking U.S. real estate
market.
"The crisis isn't over,"
Peter Costello, the Australian treasurer, said Friday. "It still has
some way to go."
Banks as far away from
the United States as Australia have taken a
hit from the drying up of easy money that they need to do business.
This week, depositors
made a run on Northern Rock to withdraw their
savings after the British bank revealed it was at risk of failing and
needed a bailout from the Bank of England.
The drama highlighted the
severity of the shock waves stemming from
rising defaults in U.S. subprime home mortgages: Northern Rock was not
exposed to the subprime market but it did get tangled up in the ensuing
credit crunch.
Among other superlatives
that have gripped financial markets this
week, the price of oil rose to a record of just under $84 a barrel. The
price could further threaten already slowing global growth.
Gold also hit a 28-year
high Friday as the dollar's slide prompted speculative investors to
seek a safe haven.
The week also exposed
some of the beneficiaries of the market turmoil.
On Thursday, in a series
of multibillion dollar deals, Dubai, Qatar
and Abu Dhabi reached out to acquire significant stakes in three stock
markets and a U.S. private equity firm, illustrating an increasing
appetite for investing their growing wealth in high-quality assets
abroad as oil prices hit records.
Volatility in the markets
is stirring debate among policy makers.
President Nicolas Sarkozy
of France pressed Jean-Claude Trichet,
president of the European Central Bank, to lower interest rates.
"When the U.S. central
bank lowers its rates, everything picks up;
when we don't lower ours, we go down," Sarkozy said Thursday in an
interview with the television stations TF1 and France 2. "I'm telling
Mr. Trichet, 'Look at what others are doing.' "
Pressure is also growing
on China, which European and U.S. officials
say is keeping the yuan at an artificially low level to keep its
exports strong.
Finance Minister
Christine Lagarde of France said Friday in Beijing
that she was concerned about the impact not only of the euro-dollar
rate but also the euro's rate against the Chinese yuan and the Japanese
yen.
She said she had raised
the issue of unbalanced exchange rates both
with Finance Minister Xie Xuren and Premier Wen Jiabao of China.
She said there was a need
for all countries affected by currency
imbalances to think about how to engineer greater stability in
financial markets.
The yuan has appreciated
by a total of about 10 percent against the
dollar since July 2005, when it was revalued and decoupled from a peg
against the dollar to float in a managed range.
But it has weakened
against the euro by about 4.7 percent.
Financial markets have
also been spooked by comments by the former
chairman of the Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan, who gave numerous
interviews this week to promote his book.
Greenspan said the odds
of a recession remain "somewhat more" than
one in three even after this week's cut in U.S. interest rates..."
More:
Declining
dollar: Who wins, who loses
Stocks to watch if the buck stops here
House
prices to drop much lower: Greenspan
The
Bottom Line: Further along the downward spiral we go.
- Oil spike adds insult to injury
for U.S. consumers
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - This week's
surprisingly steep U.S. interest
rate cut should have eased pressure on debt-laden Americans, but as
record-high oil prices stoke inflation fears consumers may get the
worst of both worlds.
Betting against the
mighty U.S. consumer is usually a mistake.
Spending held up remarkably well in the face of oil price spikes in
2005 and 2006, and many analysts argue that Americans have grown
accustomed to paying $3 per gallon of gasoline and won't be shocked
into cutting back now.
However, the spike that
took oil above $80 per barrel this week
comes as consumers are already contending with fallout from the
slumping housing market and tighter credit conditions, as well as
rising costs for a host of everyday items like bread, coffee and even
beer.
Sara Lee Corp raised
bread prices by 5 percent this month, and
warned it may have to hike them again because of high wheat costs.
Starbucks Corp raised prices by an average of 9 cents per cup of coffee
this summer. Beer maker Anheuser-Busch plans to raise prices early next
year.
And while the Federal
Reserve's one-half percentage point cut in the
benchmark interest rate should lower the cost of carrying credit-card
debt, the inflation worries have pushed up yields on the 10-year
Treasury bond that most banks use to set mortgages, so home loan rates
actually rose this week.
"It's clear that the cut
in itself is not going to help the consumer
very much, but the signal that the Fed is so willing to step in here is
probably comforting to everyone in the economy," said Torsten Slok,
director of U.S. economics at Deutsche Bank in New York.
CALM BEFORE THE STORM
Economists and the Fed usually prefer to look at inflation data
without volatile food and energy prices, which are rarely good
indicators of the longer-term inflation trends that the central bank
aims to tame with its interest-rate moves..."
More:
Oil
will hit $100 but probably not in 2007: Pickens
The
Bottom Line: Straw + Everything Else + Camel's Back =
Fracture.
- Russia's Artic Claim Backed By
Rocks, Officials Say
North Pole
(National Geographic) -- "
Rock samples retrieved last month from beneath the Arctic Ocean
indicate that the North Pole is part of Mother Russia, the Russian
government announced yesterday.
The Russians contend that the Lomonosov Ridge, an undersea
structure running across the Arctic Ocean beneath the pole, is a
geological extension of the Russian region of Siberia.
Under international law,
Russia
could lay claim to the potentially oil-rich seabed under the Arctic ice
if it can prove that the ridge is part of the country's continental
shelf.
In a statement released
yesterday, Russia's Ministry of Natural
Resources said that a preliminary analysis "confirms the fact that the
structure of the Lomonosov Ridge crust matches world analogs of
continental crust."
In other words, the rock
is of a type found on continental shelves rather than in normal
mid-ocean seabeds..."
The
Bottom Line: DIBBS!!! Does calling dibbs work
with parts of the Earth still not claimed? The U.N. seems to
think so.
In that case, I call dibbs on the
Mariana Trench (The only real-estate that grows!). I wonder how
far the U.S., Canada or Denmark will go to contest this thing with
Russia and the North Pole.
Friday, September 21st, 2007
- Dollar hits new low against euro
United Kingdom (BBC) -- "The US
dollar hit a new record low against the euro
as investors sold the currency after the Federal Reserve's hefty
interest rate cut.
The greenback dropped below the psychologically-key $1.40 level against
the euro, deepening recent losses.
Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar reached one-to-one parity with the US
currency for the first time in 31 years.
A strong domestic economy and concerns about a US economic slowdown
have led to the rally on Canada's Loonie.
Dampen costs
The euro reached as much as $1.4099 in Thursday trading, its highest
level since the single European currency was launched.
Hints of rate rises from the European Central Bank and stronger
European growth have also boosted the euro's value.
Analysts have said that the impact of the plunging dollar on European
consumer and businesses may be mixed.
Eurozone consumers may benefit from cheaper prices for
some imported goods, while input costs for eurozone firms may fall as
oil, metals and many raw material prices are quoted in dollars.
However, while the strong euro may cut some import
costs, it could also have a negative effect on exports as European-made
goods become more expensive.
The US is Europe's largest trading partner.
It could also hurt growth in Asia, with the US being the largest market
for China, Korea, and other Asian exporters.
Dollar problems
The dollar has been weakening for some time.
The fundamental problem is the growing US trade deficit
- now more than $700bn - as the US economy has imported far more goods
than it has exported.
This has long been seen as unsustainable, and in the
long-run some kind of currency adjustment has been seen as both
inevitable and desirable.
But the US central bank's recent change in policy has
accelerated the decline, because people who put their money in dollars
no longer get such a high rate of return.
The Fed cut rates in order to stem problems in the US
housing market, caused by an increase in the number of people
defaulting on loans, which could cause an economic slowdown across the
board.
A US economic slowdown could also
hurt the dollar in the
short-term, although it might also lower the trade gap as there could
be less demand for foreign goods by US consumers..."
More:
Gold
steady near 28-year high as dollar struggles
Dollar struggles near record low versus euro
Inflation
fears end rally, sending stocks down
Failing
Banks, Toxic Bonds And Mortgage Laundering
Plummeting
Dollar, Credit Crunch...
The
Greater Depression
Hyperinflation
is 'Good for America' Says Ben Bernanke (NOT REAL, SPOOF NEWS: now THAT's Funny!)
Dollar
plunges through $1.40 against euro
US
rate cut decried as 'socialism for Wall St'
A
rate pirate on the high debt sea
Loonie [Canadian
Dollar] hits parity with the U.S. Dollar
Dollar
Heads for Third Weekly Loss Versus Euro on Fed Rate Bets
The
Bottom Line: The economic nightmare of bad news is coming
harder and faster now; I'm having a hard time keeping up.
- Oil hits high over $83
NEW YORK (Reuters) - "Oil surged over
$83 a barrel on Thursday in the
seventh straight record-breaking session as companies shut Gulf of
Mexico output on forecasts a tropical depression churning through the
region would become a storm.
U.S. crude gained $1.44
to $83.37 a barrel at 2:17 p.m. after
hitting an all-time high of $83.60 earlier. London Brent rose 40 cents
to $78.87.
Oil has traded above $80
for the past week in part due to concerns
about U.S. supplies after government data showed crude stocks in the
top consumer fell for the fourth consecutive week.
A tropical depression
blowing into the Gulf of Mexico exacerbated
worries as companies shut offshore oil and natural gas output on
expectations it would become a tropical storm.
Energy companies have
shut over 360,100 barrels of oil per day, some
27.7 percent, of Gulf crude oil production and 16.7 percent of natural
gas production on the storm threat, the U.S. Minerals Management
Service said on Thursday.
"Energy companies
shutting down Gulf of Mexico production and Fed
Chief Bernanke's optimistic words on the economy were supportive for
this latest record rise in crude futures," said Phil Flynn, analyst at
Alaron Trading in Chicago.
RISING PRICES
U.S.
Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke said he expects rising
defaults on U.S. mortgages but added the Fed was committed to
preventing new lending problems after cutting interest rates sharply on
Tuesday..."
More:
The
debate behind $80+ oil
Oil
holds near $82 on shut Gulf of Mexico output
The
Bottom Line: Yikes.
- U.S. military says it nabbed
Iranian commando in Iraq
BAGHDAD,
Iraq (CNN) -- "Coalition forces on Thursday arrested a
suspected member of an elite Iranian unit that has been accused of
training and equipping insurgents in Iraq, the U.S. military said.
The military said the
suspect, who was not identified, is a member of Iran's Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps - Quds Force.
The U.S. military calls
the force "a covert action arm of the Iranian
government responsible for aiding lethal attacks against the Iraqi
government and coalition forces."
The military said the
Quds Force suspect was involved in bringing roadside bombs from Iran
into Iraq and in training foreign terrorists in Iraq.
The man, captured in the
Iraqi Kurdish city of Sulaimaniya, is one of several Iranians in U.S.
custody in Iraq.
Also on Thursday, an
Iraqi National Police intelligence officer was
taken into custody for "suspected involvement in illegal militia
activities," the U.S. military said.
Col. Thamir Mohammad
Sinah al-Husayni, also known as Abu Turab, was arrested by U.S. troops.
The officer used his
position "to direct Iraqi National Police officers
to use traffic checkpoints throughout western Baghdad to detain Sunnis,
thereby aiding in sectarian evictions in Shia areas," the military said.
The military also said he
abused Sunni detainees and used them to obtain ransom.
Meanwhile, two Iraqi
soldiers were among three people killed Thursday
when a parked car detonated near an Iraqi Army checkpoint, an Interior
Ministry official said.
The official said a
tow-truck driver
hauling a car approached the checkpoint and asked troops if he could
drop off the vehicle he was towing near the checkpoint because he had
to tow another car.
The driver dropped the
car off and left. Moments later, the parked car blew up, the Interior
Ministry official said
The bomb exploded in the
Habibiya neighborhood at the edge of Sadr
City, the densely populated Shiite slum in northeastern Baghdad. Seven
people were wounded, including four soldiers.
Coalition forces
elsewhere in Iraq on Thursday killed seven suspected al Qaeda in Iraq
insurgents and detained eight others, the U.S. military said..."
The
Bottom Line: Does anyone see this going anywhere other than a strike on Iran?
Honestly?
Thursday, September 20th, 2007
- Fears of dollar collapse as Saudis
take fright
United Kingdom (Telegraph) -- "Saudi
Arabia has refused to cut interest rates in lockstep with the US
Federal Reserve for the first time, signalling that the oil-rich Gulf
kingdom is preparing to break the dollar currency peg in a move that
risks setting off a stampede out of the dollar across the Middle East.
"This is a
very dangerous situation for the dollar," said Hans Redeker, currency
chief at BNP Paribas.
"Saudi
Arabia has $800bn (£400bn) in their future generation fund, and
the
entire region has $3,500bn under management. They face an inflationary
threat and do not want to import an interest rate policy set for the
recessionary conditions in the United States," he said.
The
Saudi central bank said today that it would take "appropriate measures"
to halt huge capital inflows into the country, but analysts say this
policy is unsustainable and will inevitably lead to the collapse of the
dollar peg.
As a close
ally of the US, Riyadh has so far tried to stick to the peg, but the
link is now destabilising its own economy.
The Fed's
dramatic half point cut to 4.75pc yesterday
has already caused a plunge in the world dollar index to a fifteen year
low, touching with weakest level ever against the mighty euro at just
under $1.40.
There is
now a growing danger that
global investors will start to shun the US bond markets. The latest US
government data on foreign holdings released this week show a collapse
in purchases of US bonds from $97bn to just $19bn in July, with
outright net sales of US Treasuries.
The danger
is
that this could now accelerate as the yield gap between the United
States and the rest of the world narrows rapidly, leaving America
starved of foreign capital flows needed to cover its current account
deficit -- expected to reach $850bn this year, or 6.5pc of GDP.
Mr
Redeker said foreign investors have been gradually pulling out of the
long-term US debt markets, leaving the dollar dependent on short-term
funding. Foreigners have funded 25pc to 30pc of America's credit and
short-term paper markets over the last two years.
"They
were willing to provide the money when rates were paying nicely, but
why bear the risk in these dramatically changed circumstances? We think
that a fall in dollar to $1.50 against the euro is not out of the
question at all by the first quarter of 2008," he said.
"This
is nothing like the situation in 1998 when the crisis was in Asia, but
the US was booming. This time the US itself is the problem," he said.
Mr
Redeker said the biggest danger for the dollar is that falling US rates
will at some point trigger a reversal yen "carry trade", causing
massive flows from the US back to Japan.
Jim
Rogers, the commodity king and former partner of George Soros, said the
Federal Reserve was playing with fire by cutting rates so aggressively
at a time when the dollar was already under pressure.
The
risk is that flight from US bonds could push up the long-term yields
that form the base price of credit for most mortgages, the driving the
property market into even deeper crisis.
"If Ben
Bernanke starts running those printing presses even faster than he's
already doing, we are going to have a serious recession. The dollar's
going to collapse, the bond market's going to collapse. There's going
to be a lot of problems," he said.
The Federal
Reserve, however, clearly calculates the risk of a sudden downturn is
now so great that the it outweighs dangers of a dollar slide.
Former
Fed chief Alan Greenspan said this week that house prices may fall by
"double digits" as the subprime crisis bites harder, prompting
households to cut back sharply on spending.
For
Saudi Arabia, the dollar peg has clearly become a liability. Inflation
has risen to 4pc and the M3 broad money supply is surging at 22pc.
The
pressures are even worse in other parts of the Gulf. The United Arab
Emirates now faces inflation of 9.3pc, a 20-year high. In Qatar it has
reached 13pc.
Kuwait
became the first of the oil
sheikhdoms to break its dollar peg in May, a move that has begun to
rein in rampant money supply growth..."
More:
Inflation
fears as Kuwait and UAE cut key rates
Double-digit home price drops coming
SEIZING
YOUR ASSETS TO COVER RETIREMENT PROMISES: How the Government May Do It
Treasury:
U.S. To Hit Debt Limit By Oct. 1
The
Bottom Line:
The world has lost faith in the U.S. Dollar (Except for The U.S. and
some dopey guys in the U.K.) I wonder how long it will take for
the
greed-drunken bankers and day-traders to realize the party is
over. I
really feel sorry for the guys stuck cleaning the place up.
- Oil holds just below $82 as supply
worries linger
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - "Oil hovered
just below $82 a barrel on
Thursday after U.S. crude inventories fell more than expected and as
the threat of a storm gathering near Florida reignited supply concerns
in the world's top consumer.
U.S. light crude for
October delivery rose 2 cents to $81.95 a
barrel by 11:21 p.m. EDT, after a record-high of $82.51 on Wednesday,
the sixth consecutive session to hit a record. London Brent crude for
November fell 27 cents to $78.20.
Oil prices have rallied
18 percent in the past month and by a third
this year, driven by worries of a possible supply crunch during the
Northern Hemisphere winter, supply risks from Mexico to Iran and fund
flows from poorly performing equity markets.
"In the short term there
are so many elements that are supporting
prices," said Andrew Harrington, a commodities analyst at Australia and
New Zealand Bank.
"But unless there's a
major disruption, we should see softer prices in the medium term,
possibly in the high $60s," he added.
Boosting supply concerns,
more oil firms on Wednesday pulled
nonessential staff from offshore platforms in the Gulf of Mexico due to
the threat of a storm, but only a small amount of production has
stopped so far.
The U.S. National
Hurricane Center said a tropical disturbance over
Florida could strengthen into a tropical cyclone and cross into the
Gulf of Mexico in the coming days, threatening a quarter of the
nation's oil production.
Exxon
Mobil Corp said late on Wednesday it shut 1,000 barrels of
daily crude oil production along with 55 thousand cubic feet per day of
natural gas output, just a fraction of the region's capacity..."
The
Bottom Line: Make or break time. I don't see the
prices dropping much lower than where they currently are.
- Rice tells IAEA to butt out of
Iran diplomacy
SHANNON,
Ireland (CNN) -- "U.S. Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice cautioned the U.N. nuclear watchdog group Wednesday
not to interfere with international diplomacy over Iran's alleged
weapons program.
The International Atomic
Energy Agency "is not in the business of
diplomacy," Rice told reporters traveling with her to the Middle East.
The IAEA's role should be
limited to carrying out inspections and
offering a "clear declaration and clear reporting on what the Iranians
are doing; whether and when and if they are living up to the agreements
they have signed," she said.
Rice was referring to
recent comments made by IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei, in which he
criticized U.S. rhetoric about Iran.
ElBaradei has called for
less emphasis on additional U.N. sanctions against Iran
in favor of enhanced cooperation between the IAEA and Tehran. Iran has
agreed with IAEA requests to answer unresolved questions about its
nuclear program.
Iranian officials insist
their nuclear program
is aimed at producing civilian electric power, but the Bush
administration accuses Tehran of working toward a nuclear weapon.
President Bush has called the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran
"unacceptable."
Rice said the IAEA
agreement with Iran was "a
good thing," but "this wouldn't be the first time the Iranians made an
agreement only to break it"
She said the U.N.
Security Council
is working on a third resolution imposing additional sanctions against
Iran for failing to suspend its uranium enrichment program..."
The
Bottom Line:
I hate to read between the headlines, but it really looks like a war,
or the very least a massive airstrike against Iran is looming. As
the
saying goes, "If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it's
probably a duck."
Wednesday, September 19th, 2007
- Dollar May Extend Drop Versus Euro
as Fed Cuts Rate Half-Point
New York (Bloomberg) -- "The dollar
may extend a decline
against the euro after the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark
interest rate for the first time in four years, dimming the
allure of the U.S. currency.
Traders drove the dollar
to a record low against the euro
yesterday after the Fed cut its target rate for overnight loans
between banks by a half-percentage point to 4.75 percent amid
concern that the worst housing slump in 16 years may threaten
economic growth. Reports today are forecast to show housing
starts dropped last month while a gauge of inflation slowed.
``Growth and
interest-rate differentials are both turning
against the dollar,'' said Samarjit Shankar, director of global
strategy for the Global Markets group in Boston at Bank of New
York Mellon. ``This confirms the dollar bears' view. We are
easily running toward $1.4 now. Probably within a week.''
The dollar traded at
$1.3987 per euro at 5:51 a.m. in Tokyo.
The U.S. currency lost 0.9 percent yesterday and touched a record
low of $1.3988. The U.S. currency also set a 30-year low of 98.80
U.S. cents per Canadian dollar yesterday.
The dollar has lost 5.5
percent this year versus the euro as
traders bet the Fed would cut rates as the U.S. economy slowed.
The European Central Bank's benchmark rate is 4 percent.
The New York Board of
Trade's Dollar Index comparing the
U.S. currency against six primary peers, including the euro and
yen, touched 79.157 yesterday, the lowest since September 1992.
BOJ Meeting
The yen may extend its
losses against the dollar and euro
before the Bank of Japan releases its decision on interest rates
today. The central bank is forecast by economists in a Bloomberg
News poll to keep its benchmark rate at 0.5 percent, the lowest
among industrialized nations.
The Japanese currency
dropped against all 16 major
currencies yesterday after the Fed rate cut fueled a rally in
U.S. stocks, spurring investors to buy riskier assets funded by
borrowed yen.
The yen traded at 116.10
per dollar and 162.36 per euro. The
Japanese currency dropped 0.9 percent against the dollar and 1.7
percent versus the euro yesterday.
``Developments in
financial markets since the Committee's
last regular meeting have increased the uncertainty surrounding
the economic outlook,'' the Federal Open Market Committee said
yesterday in a statement. The FOMC ``will act as needed to foster
price stability and sustainable economic growth.''
4.75 Percent Forecast
The median forecast in a
Bloomberg News survey of 134
analysts had been for a quarter-point Fed cut. Only 23 economists
forecast the Fed would lower the rate to 4.75 percent, while six
expected no change. The Fed had kept the benchmark overnight rate
at 5.25 percent since June 2006.
The Fed's Board of
Governors also lowered the rate on direct
loans to banks by half a percentage point yesterday to 5.25
percent.
At 4.04 percent, two-year
German bunds yielded about 0.07
percentage point more than comparable-maturity Treasuries, the
widest difference since 2004. The U.S. notes yielded 0.08
percentage point more than German bunds two days ago.
U.S. housing starts
probably fell to an annualized rate of
1.35 million last month from 1.38 million a month earlier, while
the consumer price index probably slowed to a 2.1 percent annual
rate in August, from 2.4 percent in July, according to the median
forecast in separate Bloomberg News surveys.
``It's about the Fed's
easing cycle,'' said Adam Boyton, a
senior currency strategist in New York at Deutsche Bank AG,
before the Fed decision. ``The Fed will cut the rate more than
once, which paints a bearish picture for the dollar.''
After the start of the
Fed's last rate-cut cycle, when it
reduced the target rate by 0.5 percentage point to 6 percent on
Jan. 3, 2001, the dollar lost 3 percent against the euro in the
following two days..."
More:
Fed
Throws a Hail Mary Pass...and Everybody Loses
Gold
hits 16-month high after Fed, approaches $730!!!
Dollar
slides to 15-year low after hefty Fed cut
A
run on the banks a very real threat
Fed cuts
interest rate to 4.75%
Fears
grow for British economy as panic over Northern Rock spreads
August
foreclosures zoom
NAR
Admits to Initiating Bush's Mortgage Bailout Plan
Prepare
for prolongued turmoil, says US Treasury Secretary
The
Bottom Line: I think they have wheelburrows on sale at
Home Depot. You'll need one if you plan on paying cash for
a gallon of milk. Hyperinflation, here we come. Lankmark
failure of the Fed, and thus marks the death of the U.S. Dollar.
- Oil climbs near record over $82
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - "Oil climbed
above $82 a barrel on Wednesday,
near a record reached a day earlier after the U.S. Federal Reserve
slashed interest rates to calm worries over economic growth ahead of
peak winter fuel demand.
U.S. light crude for
October delivery rose 82 cents to $82.33 a
barrel by 9:42 p.m. EDT, after gains of 94 cents on Tuesday, when
prices hit a fresh record of $82.38. London Brent crude gained 72 cents
to trade at $78.31 a barrel.
The Federal Reserve
chopped U.S. interest rates by a hefty
half-percentage point on Tuesday in a bid to shield the economy from a
housing slump and financial turbulence, sparking an equities and
commodities rally and giving oil another boost.
"Now the market is going
to be searching for $85 a barrel," said
Tony Nunan, risk management executive at Mitsubishi Corp in Tokyo.
Oil prices, which have
gained more than a third since the start of
the year, have benefited from hurricane threats and other supply risks,
fund flows into energy from poorly performing equity markets and
falling U.S. inventories.
U.S. crude oil supplies
are forecast to have dropped for the fourth
week in a row last week, down by 2 million barrels as imports shrank
further, said industry analysts polled by Reuters ahead of government
data later on Wednesday.
"If we get a big drop in
inventories, like three to seven million, then prices could get there
in a hurry," Nunan added.
Crude
stocks are already at the lowest level in eight months..."
The
Bottom Line: Up, up and away!
- Spying by Russia, China near Cold
War levels: U.S.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - "Spying on the
United States by Russia and
China has rebounded almost to Cold War levels, the top U.S. spy chief
told Congress on Tuesday in seeking a permanent expansion of U.S.
eavesdropping authority.
National Intelligence
Director Mike McConnell made the accusation as
the White House stepped up lobbying a skeptical Democratic-led Congress
for broadened surveillance powers, which are primarily cast as a
counterterrorism tool.
"China and Russia's
foreign intelligence services are among the most
aggressive in collecting against sensitive and protected U.S. systems,
facilities and development projects," McConnell told the House of
Representatives Judiciary Committee in written testimony.
"Their efforts are
approaching Cold War levels," he said.
McConnell declined to
elaborate after the hearing.
His spokesman, Ross
Feinstein, said the testimony was meant to
emphasize that the eavesdropping authority under the 1978 Foreign
Intelligence and Surveillance Act, or FISA, is needed for traditional
counterintelligence as well as terrorism surveillance.
"FISA is beyond a
terrorist tool, we are talking about foreign intelligence as well," he
said.
China
and Russia, along with Iran, have long been considered leading
countries which spy on the United States..."
The
Bottom Line: All of this Cloak and Dagger crap is
screaming for a new series of Tom Clancy Books!
Tuesday, September 18th, 2007
- Euro could replace dollar as top
currency-Greenspan
BERLIN (Reuters) - "The euro could
replace the U.S.
dollar as the world's primary reserve currency, a German
magazine quoted former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan
as saying on Monday.
Greenspan told weekly
Stern it was "absolutely conceivable
that the euro will replace the dollar as reserve currency, or
will be traded as an equally important reserve currency," the
magazine said in a preview of this week's edition.
The dollar no longer had
much of a lead over the euro, he
said, adding that the European Central Bank had "developed into
a global economic force to be taken seriously."
Greenspan, whose memoir
"The Age of Turbulence: Adventures
in a New World" hits bookshelves on Monday, said the euro
region had profited from the strength of the European single
currency.
Its use as a reserve
currency had led to a drop in
euro-zone interest rates and "without doubt contributed to the
current economic expansion," he added..."
More:
Brace
for Act II when the crisis goes global
Greenspan:
Recession risk up
Gold
near 16-month high ahead of Fed meeting
Credit
jitters weigh on dollar, sterling before Fed
UK
govt's bank savings pledge faces credibility test
Bank
of America: Volatile market to hurt quarterly results
Fed
seen cutting rates as housing slump weighs
Caught
in a toxic mortgage
The
Bottom Line: See that dark cloud on the horizon? Tthat's
going to be one hell'uva storm.
- Oil surges above $81 on supply
fears
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - "Oil surged to
a record high above $81 a barrel
on Tuesday, drawing strength from concerns of a winter supply squeeze
in the world's top consumer where an anticipated interest rate cut is
calming recession fears.
U.S. light crude for
October delivery rose 56 cents to $81.13 a
barrel by 11:15 p.m. EDT after touching a high of $81.18 earlier in
Tuesday's session and a $1.47 jump on Monday. London Brent crude for
November rose 22 cents to $77.20 a barrel.
"The market developed a
momentum of its own when price movement
coincided with tightness in the market," said David Moore, commodities
strategist Australia's Commonwealth Bank.
"In such a tight market
there is potential for it to go up quite
sharply without any major new news, but I actually expect some
profit-taking at these levels to around $80," he added.
The U.S. Federal Reserve
looked set to trim rates by at least 25
basis points on Tuesday to keep a credit crunch from pulling the
economy into a recession, which analysts have feared could hamper oil
demand.
Hurricane and other
supply risks, together with falling U.S.
inventories and fund flows into energy from poorly performing equity
markets, have fuelled the recent hike in oil prices, which have climbed
33 percent this year..."
More:
Australia
slashes wheat forecast in light of global shortage and record prices
The
Bottom Line: Too many people, not enough critical
resources. I really do wonder how this is all going to balance
itself out. Slowly and gradually, or acutely and violently.
- Bush setting America up for war
with Iran
London
(The Telegraph) - "Senior
American intelligence and defence officials
believe that President George W Bush and his inner circle are taking
steps to place America on the path to war with Iran, The Sunday
Telegraph has learnt.
Pentagon
planners have developed a list of up to 2,000 bombing targets in Iran,
amid growing fears among serving officers that diplomatic efforts to
slow Iran's nuclear weapons programme are doomed to fail.
Pentagon
and CIA officers say they believe that the White House has begun a
carefully calibrated programme of escalation that could lead to a
military showdown with Iran.
Now it has
emerged
that Condoleezza Rice, the secretary of state, who has been pushing for
a diplomatic solution, is prepared to settle her differences with
Vice-President Dick Cheney and sanction military action.
In
a chilling scenario of how war might come, a senior intelligence
officer warned that public denunciation of Iranian meddling in Iraq -
arming and training militants - would lead to cross border raids on
Iranian training camps and bomb factories..."
More:
France warning of
war with Iran
Vladimir
Putin's global warning
Iran
anger over French war warning
Intelligence
Director Says Russia, China Spying on U.S.
The
Bottom Line: This Cold War II can heat up here very
quickly.
- Clinton unveils 'mandatory' health care insurance
plan
DES
MOINES, Iowa (CNN) -- "Democratic presidential
candidate Sen. Hillary Clinton announced a $110 billion health care
reform plan Monday that would require all Americans to have health
insurance.
"Here in America people are dying" because they lack health insurance,
Sen. Hillary Clinton said Monday.
"Here in America people
are dying because they couldn't get the care they needed when they were
sick.
"I'm here today because I
believe it is long past time that this nation
had an answer," Clinton said. "I believe America is ready for change.
"It's time to provide
quality affordable health care for every
American," Clinton said. "And I intend to be the president who
accomplishes that goal finally for our country."
A Clinton
adviser compares the plan's "individual mandate" -- which requires
everyone to have health insurance -- to current rules in most states
that require all drivers to purchase auto insurance, according to The
Associated Press..."
The
Bottom Line: This may sound good for all of the
mush-brained, pipe-dreamers and utopian-idealists... but this
"Mandatory Health Care" idea has elements of two major pillars, 7 and
9, of Communism.
Not to mention, this plan directly contravenes the United States
Constitution and Bill of Rights, particularly the 9th and 10th
Amendments.
Anyone who likes this psychotic woman or
this
repressive Health Care "plan" at all is an idiot. This is not
just my opinion,
this is my professional
opinion.
Hillary Clinton is NOT a Democrat.
She's
beyond Socialist. She is a closet Communist. She is an
autocratic, globalist tyrant succubus. It is truly sad, however,
that
most Americans are too blind to see this.
Monday, September 17th, 2007
- Dollar languishes as rate cuts loom
SYDNEY (Reuters) - "The U.S. dollar
languished uncomfortably close to
record lows versus the euro on Monday as investors counted on an
imminent cut in U.S. interest rates, with more to come in the months
ahead.
The euro was holding firm
at $1.3876 and well within striking distance of last week's all-time
highs around $1.3927.
Traders reported solid
support around $1.3845, which should hold
while the world waits to see what the Federal Reserve delivers at its
policy meeting on Tuesday.
The market is convinced
the central bank will cut the 5.25 percent
funds rate by at least 25 basis points to help cushion the economy from
the impact of the housing slump.
"The Fed's policy meeting
is looking more and more like a watershed
event, not only for the U.S. markets but also for the entire global
economy," said Robert Henderson, chief economist markets at nabCapital.
He believes the Fed will
not only cut by 25 basis points on Tuesday but by matching amounts in
October and December.
In contrast, several
policymakers from the European Central Bank
warned over the weekend that inflation risks in the euro zone were
still on the high side, leaving the door open for a tightening once
credit markets calmed down.
Likewise, the Bank of
Japan is still inclined to raise rates even if
it holds policy steady as expected at its policy meeting this week.
"With
key U.S. economic data printing softer and with inflation
having eased in the past few months, the case for a lowering of the Fed
funds rate would be building even in the absence of the recent strains
in the financial system," said Darren Gibbs, chief economist at
Deutsche Bank..."
More:
Stocks,
currencies subdued, await Fed meeting
Fed
set to cut interest rates
Greenspan
attacks Bush on economy
Bank braced for
more withdrawals
Investment
banks 'to lose $30bn'
Angry
savers force Northern Rock to be sold
World's
banks hit for $30billion in credit crunch
The
party's over for American consumers
The
Bottom Line: U.S. Economy has FAILED... and let the
bureaucratic finger-pointing begin!
- FEMA hijacks Midwest broadcast
signals with mistaken presidential alert
Chicago
(OnDeadline) -- "The
federal government hijacked radio and TV transmissions in the Midwest
yesterday with test signals that triggered the sort of high-level
emergency alert that is reserved for use by the president.
The
Quincy Herald
says alerts were sent at 7:33 a.m., 7:49 a.m., 7:55 a.m. and 8:07 a.m.
Radio listeners heard nothing but dead air. TV viewers saw a scrolling
message that said: "The Emergency Action Notification Network has
issued an emergency action notification for the United States,
beginning at ..."
FEMA tells the Associated Press
that the mistake affected Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Wisconsin and
Michigan.
"While the interrupted
morning drive-time broadcasts
proved the
Illinois system worked, the fact that what's known as an Emergency
Action Notification, or EAN -- the highest level of EAS alert,
indicating an emergency message is coming from the White House -- could
be relayed mistakenly to override stations was a bit of a jolt, sending
engineers scrambling at the affected outlets throughout Illinois and in
adjacent media markets such as St. Louis," the Chicago
Tribune
reports. "Compounding the error, an actual presidential code, minus any
audio explanation, was sent rather than a lesser alert or a
notification of a systems test of some kind."
A FEMA spokeswoman tells
the paper that this
"unintentional
disruption" occurred after a new piece of equipment in Springfield,
Ill., picked up test signals that were being sent between Cleveland and
Richmond, Va. WLS-TV
expands on this explanation: "The federal emergency management agency
is adapting satellites to handle emergency messages, and a government
contractor Tuesday was testing it for Illinois, except he used active
codes to send the message."
The Congressional Research Service has a
report
on
the emergency alert system..."
The
Bottom Line: Prepping things for a coming announcement?
Sunday, September 16th, 2007
- Dollar's retreat raises fear of
collapse
FRANKFURT (International Herald
Tribune) - "Finance ministers and central bankers have long fretted
that at some
point, the rest of the world would lose its willingness to finance the
United States' proclivity to consume far more than it produces - and
that a potentially disastrous free-fall in the dollar's value would
result.
But for longer than most
economists would have been willing to
predict a decade ago, the world has been a willing partner in American
excess - until a new and home-grown financial crisis this summer
rattled confidence in the country, the world's largest economy.
On Thursday, the dollar
briefly fell to another low against the euro
of $1.3927, as a slow decline that has been under way for months picked
up steam this past week.
"This is all pointing to
a greatly increased risk of a fast
unwinding of the U.S. current account deficit and a serious decline of
the dollar," said Kenneth Rogoff, a former chief economist at the
International Monetary Fund and an expert on exchange rates. "We could
finally see the big kahuna hit."
In addition to increased nervousness
about the pace of the dollar's
decline, many currency analysts now also are willing to make an
argument they would have avoided as recently as a few years ago: that
the euro should bear the brunt of the dollar's decline.
The euro, shared by 13
countries, once looked like a daring
experiment. But it has gained credibility and euro-denominated
financial assets are as good as their U.S. counterparts. With a slow
economic overhaul under way in European capitals, and a fundamentally
sound corporate structure, a weaker dollar justifiably means a stronger
euro.
"The euro has earned what
it has gotten," said Stephen Jen, global
head of currency research at Morgan Stanley in London. "It is not
simply rallying by default."
So long as Americans buy
more than they earn from exports - and they
did, creating a current account deficit of $850 billion last year - the
rest of the world financed the binge by bringing dollars into the
United States for investment in stocks, bonds, real estate or other
assets, thereby preserving demand for the dollar.
The continued appetite
for U.S. investments stemmed from a track
record of strong economic growth and a financial system that has been
remarkably resistant to shocks.
But the latest turmoil in
mortgage markets has, in a single stroke,
shaken faith in the resilience of American finance to a greater degree
than even the bursting of the technology bubble in 2000 or the terror
attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, analysts said. It has also raised prospect
of a recession in the wider economy.
While most economists
just a few months ago would have dismissed the
prospect of a dollar collapse outright, they now are debating the
possibility that something on par with the dollar debacle of the 1970s
might just happen again.
When a currency
collapses, the central bank can push up interest
rates to attract needed investment, but strangle the economy in the
process. Alternatively, it can let the currency fall and watch prices
of imports - and eventually competing domestic goods - rise sharply.
Double-digit inflation
resulted in the 1970s and only a global recession brought it to an end.
Today, the dollar's
current weakness is being driven by uncertainty
over how central banks will react to the turmoil in financial markets,
unleashed by the collapse of the U.S. market for subprime mortgages
given to borrowers with shaky credit histories.
The European Central Bank
put off an interest rate increase it had
planned for September, but is still inclined to tighten credit at least
one more time by the end of this year. By contrast, the U.S. Federal
Reserve has hinted at a rate cut at its meeting next Tuesday - a step
that would diminish the appeal of dollar-denominated assets, almost
certainly sending the dollar lower.
But across a horizon of
18 months to two years, investors are
pondering how quickly the dollar will fall, a question to which there
are no easy answers.
After a run of strong
growth, the U.S. economy has lurched into a
phase of slower expansion, and last Friday the most serious warning
sign appeared - an outright deterioration in employment growth.
The data has coincided
with profit warnings from major U.S.
retailers like Wal-Mart Stores and Home Depot, suggesting that consumer
spending, the backbone of the American economy for years, was ebbing.
This step would logically follow the rapidly cooling housing market,
since Americans have spent heavily with money borrowed against rising
home values..."
More:
China may
lead US economy to collapse dumping US dollar
Run
on the bank
The
Time to Panic is When Those in Charge Say "Don't Panic"
The
Coming U.S. Hard Landing
Jumpy
customers besiege crisis-hit British bank
The
Bottom Line: Confidence is definately lacking.
- Report: Israeli Jets Destroyed
Syrian Nuke Cache
NEW YORK
(Fox) -- "It was just
after midnight when the 69th Squadron of Israeli F-15Is crossed the
Syrian coast-line. On the ground, Syria’s formidable air defences went
dead. An audacious raid on a Syrian target 50 miles from the Iraqi
border was under way.
At
a rendezvous point on the ground, a Shaldag air force commando team was
waiting to direct their laser beams at the target for the approaching
jets. The team had arrived a day earlier, taking up position near a
large underground depot. Soon the bunkers were in flames.
Ten
days after the jets reached home, their mission was the focus of
intense speculation this weekend amid claims that Israel believed it
had destroyed a cache of nuclear materials from North Korea.
The
Israeli government was not saying. “The security sources and IDF
[Israeli Defence Forces] soldiers are demonstrating unusual courage,”
said Ehud Olmert, the prime minister. “We naturally cannot always show
the public our cards.”
The
Syrians were also keeping mum. “I cannot reveal the details,” said
Farouk al-Sharaa, the vice-president. “All I can say is the military
and political echelon is looking into a series of responses as we
speak. Results are forthcoming.” The official story that the target
comprised weapons destined for Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Lebanese
Shiite group, appeared to be crumbling in the face of widespread
scepticism.
Andrew Semmel, a senior US State Department
official, said Syria might have obtained nuclear equipment from “secret
suppliers”, and added that there were a “number of foreign technicians”
in the country.
Asked if they could be
North
Korean, he replied: “There are North Korean people there. There’s no
question about that.” He said a network run by AQ Khan, the disgraced
creator of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons, could be involved..."
The
Bottom Line: Things are definately heating up in the
middle east.
- Indonesia quake toll rises to 23
dead
JAKARTA (Reuters) - "The toll from a
severe earthquake on Indonesia's
Sumatra island last week has risen to 23 dead and 88 injured, an
official said on Sunday, and the area is likely to experience further
significant aftershocks.
The 8.4 magnitude quake
struck off the coast of western Sumatra on
Wednesday evening, and has been followed by at least 40 big aftershocks
and several tsunami warnings, subsequently withdrawn.
Aftershocks with a
magnitude ranging from 3 to 5 are likely to be
felt along Sumatra's west coast for the next two weeks, the Jakarta
Post reported on Sunday, citing the head of the earthquake and tsunami
division of the Meteorological and Geophysical Agency.
Rustam Pakaya, a senior
health ministry official, told Reuters that
as of Sunday morning, a total of 23 people had died in Bengkulu and
West Sumatra provinces, the two regions closest to the quake's
epicenter, while 88 people had been injured.
More than 22,000 houses
in the area either collapsed or were
damaged, Giri Trigondo, an official at the national disaster agency,
said on Sunday.
"Quake victims in some
areas need food, cooking implements, tents, medicine," he said.
Many people are still sleeping out in the open, either because their
homes have been destroyed or because they are too scared to return home
in case of further quakes..."
The
Bottom Line: If you live on or near the "Ring of Fire",
you should have come to expect this by now.
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